SAT

SAT Evidence-Based Reading Test 2

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‘CRISIS OF CONFIDENCE’ SPEECH BY JIMMY CARTER
  1. The erosion of our confidence in the future is threatening to destroy the social and the political fabric of America.
  2. The confidence that we have always had as a people is not simply some romantic dream or a proverb in a dusty book that we read just on the Fourth of July. It is the idea which founded our nation and has guided our development as a people.
  3. Confidence in the future has supported everything else ­­ public institutions and private enterprise, our own families, and the very Constitution of the United States.
  4. Confidence has defined our course and has served as a link between generations.
  5. We’ve always believed in something called progress. We’ve always had a faith that the days of our children would be better than our own.
  6. Our people are losing that faith, not only in government itself but in the ability as citizens to serve as the ultimate rulers and shapers of our democracy. As a people we know our past and we are proud of it. Our progress has been part of the living history of America, even the world.
  7. We always believed that we were part of a great movement of humanity itself called democracy, involved in the search for freedom; and that belief has always strengthened us in our purpose. But just as we are losing our confidence in the future, we are also beginning to close the door on our past.
  8. In a nation that was proud of hard work, strong families, close­knit communities, and our faith in God, too many of us now tend to worship self­indulgence and consumption.
  9. Human identity is no longer defined by what one does, but by what one owns. But we’ve discovered that owning things and consuming things does not satisfy our longing for meaning. We’ve learned that piling up material goods cannot fill the emptiness of lives which have no confidence or purpose.
  10. The symptoms of this crisis of the American spirit are all around us. For the first time in the history of our country a majority of our people believe that the next five years will be worse than the past five years. Two­thirds of our people do not even vote. The productivity of American workers is actually dropping, and the willingness of Americans to save for the future has fallen below that of all other people in the Western world.
  11. As you know, there is a growing disrespect for government and for churches and for schools, the news media, and other institutions.
  12. This is not a message of happiness or reassurance, but it is the truth and it is a warning.
  13. These changes did not happen overnight. They’ve come upon us gradually over the last generation, years that were filled with shocks and tragedy.
  14. We were sure that ours was a nation of the ballot, not the bullet, until the murders of John Kennedy and Robert Kennedy and Martin Luther King, Jr. We were taught that our armies were always invincible and our causes were always just, only to suffer the agony of Vietnam.
  15. We respected the Presidency as a place of honor until the shock of Watergate.
  16. We remember when the phrase “sound as a dollar” was an expression of absolute dependability, until ten years of inflation began to shrink our dollar and our savings. We believed that our nation’s resources were limitless until 1973 when we had to face a growing dependence on foreign oil.

  17. These wounds are still very deep. They have never been healed.
Based on the information in this passage, President Carter is trying to accomplish all the following except:

Correct! Wrong!

Answer 3, because Carter is not trying to stump for his own party; rather he's addressing American doubts and fears in their quality of life.

‘CRISIS OF CONFIDENCE’ SPEECH BY JIMMY CARTER
  1. The erosion of our confidence in the future is threatening to destroy the social and the political fabric of America.
  2. The confidence that we have always had as a people is not simply some romantic dream or a proverb in a dusty book that we read just on the Fourth of July. It is the idea which founded our nation and has guided our development as a people.
  3. Confidence in the future has supported everything else ­­ public institutions and private enterprise, our own families, and the very Constitution of the United States.
  4. Confidence has defined our course and has served as a link between generations.
  5. We’ve always believed in something called progress. We’ve always had a faith that the days of our children would be better than our own.
  6. Our people are losing that faith, not only in government itself but in the ability as citizens to serve as the ultimate rulers and shapers of our democracy. As a people we know our past and we are proud of it. Our progress has been part of the living history of America, even the world.
  7. We always believed that we were part of a great movement of humanity itself called democracy, involved in the search for freedom; and that belief has always strengthened us in our purpose. But just as we are losing our confidence in the future, we are also beginning to close the door on our past.
  8. In a nation that was proud of hard work, strong families, close­knit communities, and our faith in God, too many of us now tend to worship self­indulgence and consumption.
  9. Human identity is no longer defined by what one does, but by what one owns. But we’ve discovered that owning things and consuming things does not satisfy our longing for meaning. We’ve learned that piling up material goods cannot fill the emptiness of lives which have no confidence or purpose.
  10. The symptoms of this crisis of the American spirit are all around us. For the first time in the history of our country a majority of our people believe that the next five years will be worse than the past five years. Two­thirds of our people do not even vote. The productivity of American workers is actually dropping, and the willingness of Americans to save for the future has fallen below that of all other people in the Western world.
  11. As you know, there is a growing disrespect for government and for churches and for schools, the news media, and other institutions.
  12. This is not a message of happiness or reassurance, but it is the truth and it is a warning.
  13. These changes did not happen overnight. They’ve come upon us gradually over the last generation, years that were filled with shocks and tragedy.
  14. We were sure that ours was a nation of the ballot, not the bullet, until the murders of John Kennedy and Robert Kennedy and Martin Luther King, Jr. We were taught that our armies were always invincible and our causes were always just, only to suffer the agony of Vietnam.
  15. We respected the Presidency as a place of honor until the shock of Watergate.
  16. We remember when the phrase “sound as a dollar” was an expression of absolute dependability, until ten years of inflation began to shrink our dollar and our savings. We believed that our nation’s resources were limitless until 1973 when we had to face a growing dependence on foreign oil.

  17. These wounds are still very deep. They have never been healed.
The principal rhetorical effect of the phrase in paragraph 15 (we respected ... Watergate) is to

Correct! Wrong!

Answer 3: Carter wants Americans to pick themselves up, but he acknowledges that many of their complaints and frustrations are real and need to be addressed.

‘CRISIS OF CONFIDENCE’ SPEECH BY JIMMY CARTER
  1. The erosion of our confidence in the future is threatening to destroy the social and the political fabric of America.
  2. The confidence that we have always had as a people is not simply some romantic dream or a proverb in a dusty book that we read just on the Fourth of July. It is the idea which founded our nation and has guided our development as a people.
  3. Confidence in the future has supported everything else ­­ public institutions and private enterprise, our own families, and the very Constitution of the United States.
  4. Confidence has defined our course and has served as a link between generations.
  5. We’ve always believed in something called progress. We’ve always had a faith that the days of our children would be better than our own.
  6. Our people are losing that faith, not only in government itself but in the ability as citizens to serve as the ultimate rulers and shapers of our democracy. As a people we know our past and we are proud of it. Our progress has been part of the living history of America, even the world.
  7. We always believed that we were part of a great movement of humanity itself called democracy, involved in the search for freedom; and that belief has always strengthened us in our purpose. But just as we are losing our confidence in the future, we are also beginning to close the door on our past.
  8. In a nation that was proud of hard work, strong families, close­knit communities, and our faith in God, too many of us now tend to worship self­indulgence and consumption.
  9. Human identity is no longer defined by what one does, but by what one owns. But we’ve discovered that owning things and consuming things does not satisfy our longing for meaning. We’ve learned that piling up material goods cannot fill the emptiness of lives which have no confidence or purpose.
  10. The symptoms of this crisis of the American spirit are all around us. For the first time in the history of our country a majority of our people believe that the next five years will be worse than the past five years. Two­thirds of our people do not even vote. The productivity of American workers is actually dropping, and the willingness of Americans to save for the future has fallen below that of all other people in the Western world.
  11. As you know, there is a growing disrespect for government and for churches and for schools, the news media, and other institutions.
  12. This is not a message of happiness or reassurance, but it is the truth and it is a warning.
  13. These changes did not happen overnight. They’ve come upon us gradually over the last generation, years that were filled with shocks and tragedy.
  14. We were sure that ours was a nation of the ballot, not the bullet, until the murders of John Kennedy and Robert Kennedy and Martin Luther King, Jr. We were taught that our armies were always invincible and our causes were always just, only to suffer the agony of Vietnam.
  15. We respected the Presidency as a place of honor until the shock of Watergate.
  16. We remember when the phrase “sound as a dollar” was an expression of absolute dependability, until ten years of inflation began to shrink our dollar and our savings. We believed that our nation’s resources were limitless until 1973 when we had to face a growing dependence on foreign oil.

  17. These wounds are still very deep. They have never been healed.
Which choice provides the best evidence for the answer to the previous question?

Correct! Wrong!

Answer 2: Paragraph 14, this is where he first acknowledges that Americans' belief that their "causes were always just" was a lie.

‘CRISIS OF CONFIDENCE’ SPEECH BY JIMMY CARTER
  1. The erosion of our confidence in the future is threatening to destroy the social and the political fabric of America.
  2. The confidence that we have always had as a people is not simply some romantic dream or a proverb in a dusty book that we read just on the Fourth of July. It is the idea which founded our nation and has guided our development as a people.
  3. Confidence in the future has supported everything else ­­ public institutions and private enterprise, our own families, and the very Constitution of the United States.
  4. Confidence has defined our course and has served as a link between generations.
  5. We’ve always believed in something called progress. We’ve always had a faith that the days of our children would be better than our own.
  6. Our people are losing that faith, not only in government itself but in the ability as citizens to serve as the ultimate rulers and shapers of our democracy. As a people we know our past and we are proud of it. Our progress has been part of the living history of America, even the world.
  7. We always believed that we were part of a great movement of humanity itself called democracy, involved in the search for freedom; and that belief has always strengthened us in our purpose. But just as we are losing our confidence in the future, we are also beginning to close the door on our past.
  8. In a nation that was proud of hard work, strong families, close­knit communities, and our faith in God, too many of us now tend to worship self­indulgence and consumption.
  9. Human identity is no longer defined by what one does, but by what one owns. But we’ve discovered that owning things and consuming things does not satisfy our longing for meaning. We’ve learned that piling up material goods cannot fill the emptiness of lives which have no confidence or purpose.
  10. The symptoms of this crisis of the American spirit are all around us. For the first time in the history of our country a majority of our people believe that the next five years will be worse than the past five years. Two­thirds of our people do not even vote. The productivity of American workers is actually dropping, and the willingness of Americans to save for the future has fallen below that of all other people in the Western world.
  11. As you know, there is a growing disrespect for government and for churches and for schools, the news media, and other institutions.
  12. This is not a message of happiness or reassurance, but it is the truth and it is a warning.
  13. These changes did not happen overnight. They’ve come upon us gradually over the last generation, years that were filled with shocks and tragedy.
  14. We were sure that ours was a nation of the ballot, not the bullet, until the murders of John Kennedy and Robert Kennedy and Martin Luther King, Jr. We were taught that our armies were always invincible and our causes were always just, only to suffer the agony of Vietnam.
  15. We respected the Presidency as a place of honor until the shock of Watergate.
  16. We remember when the phrase “sound as a dollar” was an expression of absolute dependability, until ten years of inflation began to shrink our dollar and our savings. We believed that our nation’s resources were limitless until 1973 when we had to face a growing dependence on foreign oil.

  17. These wounds are still very deep. They have never been healed.
Pres. Carter's attitude in pargraph 8 toward Americans with "too many of us now tend to worship self-indulgence and consumption" can be described as

Correct! Wrong!

Answer 4: Carter knows that the problems of the country cannot be blamed on Americans or government directly. There's no smoking gun, in other words. He realizes that for America to be great again, Americans will need to be unified rather than what they are at every level -- from the citizenry to the elected officials. And the government will need to start listening to the people.

‘CRISIS OF CONFIDENCE’ SPEECH BY JIMMY CARTER
  1. The erosion of our confidence in the future is threatening to destroy the social and the political fabric of America.
  2. The confidence that we have always had as a people is not simply some romantic dream or a proverb in a dusty book that we read just on the Fourth of July. It is the idea which founded our nation and has guided our development as a people.
  3. Confidence in the future has supported everything else ­­ public institutions and private enterprise, our own families, and the very Constitution of the United States.
  4. Confidence has defined our course and has served as a link between generations.
  5. We’ve always believed in something called progress. We’ve always had a faith that the days of our children would be better than our own.
  6. Our people are losing that faith, not only in government itself but in the ability as citizens to serve as the ultimate rulers and shapers of our democracy. As a people we know our past and we are proud of it. Our progress has been part of the living history of America, even the world.
  7. We always believed that we were part of a great movement of humanity itself called democracy, involved in the search for freedom; and that belief has always strengthened us in our purpose. But just as we are losing our confidence in the future, we are also beginning to close the door on our past.
  8. In a nation that was proud of hard work, strong families, close­knit communities, and our faith in God, too many of us now tend to worship self­indulgence and consumption.
  9. Human identity is no longer defined by what one does, but by what one owns. But we’ve discovered that owning things and consuming things does not satisfy our longing for meaning. We’ve learned that piling up material goods cannot fill the emptiness of lives which have no confidence or purpose.
  10. The symptoms of this crisis of the American spirit are all around us. For the first time in the history of our country a majority of our people believe that the next five years will be worse than the past five years. Two­thirds of our people do not even vote. The productivity of American workers is actually dropping, and the willingness of Americans to save for the future has fallen below that of all other people in the Western world.
  11. As you know, there is a growing disrespect for government and for churches and for schools, the news media, and other institutions.
  12. This is not a message of happiness or reassurance, but it is the truth and it is a warning.
  13. These changes did not happen overnight. They’ve come upon us gradually over the last generation, years that were filled with shocks and tragedy.
  14. We were sure that ours was a nation of the ballot, not the bullet, until the murders of John Kennedy and Robert Kennedy and Martin Luther King, Jr. We were taught that our armies were always invincible and our causes were always just, only to suffer the agony of Vietnam.
  15. We respected the Presidency as a place of honor until the shock of Watergate.
  16. We remember when the phrase “sound as a dollar” was an expression of absolute dependability, until ten years of inflation began to shrink our dollar and our savings. We believed that our nation’s resources were limitless until 1973 when we had to face a growing dependence on foreign oil.

  17. These wounds are still very deep. They have never been healed.
As used in paragraph 1,"erosion" most nearly means

Correct! Wrong!

Answer 1: Erosion usually refers to a deterioration of soil richness. The same can be said fro Carter's references here to American confidence.

Published by Nasa

'Hiatus in rise of Earth's surface air temperature likely temporary'
  1. Between 1998 and 2012, climate scientists observed a slowdown in the rate at which the Earth's surface air temperature was rising. While the rise in global mean surface air temperature has continued, between 1998 and 2012 the increase was approximately one third of that from 1951 to 2012.
  2. This trend — referred to as a "global warming hiatus" — has sparked a lot of debate and given rise to a reasonable question: Is global warming coming to a halt?
  3. According to Norman Loeb, an atmospheric scientist at NASA's Langley Research Center in Hampton, Virginia, and the principal investigator of a space-borne sensor called the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System, or CERES, the answer is almost certainly no.
  4. "Heating is still going on," he said. "It's just not in terms of the surface air temperature."
  5. Loeb explained the science behind that statement Tuesday, Aug. 5, during a talk at NASA Langley titled "The Recent Pause in Global Warming: A Temporary Blip or Something More Permanent?"
  6. Though Loeb believes there are a handful of short-term factors that drive changes in surface air temperature, like the El Niño and La Niña phenomena that cause temperature fluctuations in the tropical eastern Pacific approximately every two years, he thinks there is a longer term factor that is a significant and overlooked contributor.
  7. "The Pacific Decadal Oscillation affects surface temperature," Loeb said. "It's a pattern of temperature shifts, primarily over the Pacific, that occurs about every 20 or 30 years."
  8. Historically, those shifts have coincided with changes in surface temperature.
  9. "The Pacific Decadal Oscillation has a very distinctive pattern. During the positive phase, surface temperature rises more rapidly," he said. "During the negative phase, the rate of temperature increase slows down, hence a hiatus. It's very compelling when you see the actual observations."
  10. Loeb showed measurements during his talk demonstrating steady increases in surface air temperature from 1920 to 1940 and again from 1976 to 2000, periods when the decadal oscillation was in a positive phase. From 1940 to 1975, and again beginning in 2001, temperatures leveled out in concert with negative oscillation phases.
  11. Surface air temperatures have increased by approximately 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit since the early 20th century. On this timescale, the hiatuses look like short ledges along a graph of global average surface air temperature with an otherwise steep upward slope.
  12. "You can't just look at short periods of time," Loeb said. "You have to look at the record over a long period of time to see the pattern. There will be natural fluctuations at shorter time scales, but we really shouldn't conclude that that's a change and global warming is going away."
  13. Even as surface air temperatures are currently holding relatively steady, Loeb believes there's still another issue to take into consideration.
  14. "Observations are showing us the planet is still taking up heat, but it is just showing up in a different place," he said.
  15. That different place is the ocean.
  16. In other words, as humans and nature continue to apply pressure to the Earth's climate through increases in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, temperatures are still rising. But as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation briefly tames temperatures at the planet's surface, the oceans are where the real heating is happening.
  17. "If you add extra heat to the Earth system, approximately 93 percent of that extra heat ends up stored in the ocean, and the ocean is very deep," Loeb said. "When we look at air temperature, we are just looking at the surface. There's a whole deep ocean where heat can be stored."
  18. Scientists are studying ocean temperatures with instruments known as “Argo floats.” These instruments drift freely throughout the world’s oceans, collecting temperature and salinity measurements to a depth of around 6000 feet. The floats rise to the surface and transmit their data to a satellite every 10 days. Currently, more than 3,600 Argo floats distributed in the planet's oceans show that the oceans are taking up heat over time, according to Loeb.
  19. Combine that with data from NASA's CERES sensor, which shows the rate of heat uptake by the whole planet is nearly constant, and it becomes clear that the planet is still warming, even as the increase in surface air temperatures lull temporarily.
  20. "Heat can be redistributed," Loeb said of the energy. "Changes in the circulation patterns in the ocean and atmosphere will result in redistribution of the heat — and that is what is going on during the different phases of this [Pacific Decadal Oscillation]."
  21. Loeb and the overwhelming majority of his fellow climate scientists argue that as humans continue to pump carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere at unprecedented rates — atmospheric carbon dioxide measurements hit 400 parts per million in May 2013 — climate change will continue. Current estimates have global average surface air temperatures rising anywhere from approximately 3 to 8.5 degrees Fahrenheit by the year 2100, depending on how much carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are added to the atmosphere and accounting for uncertainty in predictions.
  22. But even given the scientific evidence that points toward definite warming, and data that shows that the last three decades have been the hottest on record, each one a little bit warmer than the last, Loeb encourages the scientific community to improve its observations and models of the climate system, and to discuss the science objectively and rationally.
  23. "It’s okay to be skeptical," he said. "Scientists are skeptical by nature. But at the same time, we need to be reasonable.”
Based on the information in the passage it can be reasonably inferred that:

Correct! Wrong!

Answer 3: the passage acknowledges that global warming has slowed down, but it also makes it quite clear that it will resume at some point. Text originally published by NASA at this link: http://www.nasa.gov/larc/hiatus-in-rise-of-earths-surface-air-temperature-likely-temporary/#.VjagJ4Qle7o

'Hiatus in rise of Earth's surface air temperature likely temporary'
  1. Between 1998 and 2012, climate scientists observed a slowdown in the rate at which the Earth's surface air temperature was rising. While the rise in global mean surface air temperature has continued, between 1998 and 2012 the increase was approximately one third of that from 1951 to 2012.
  2. This trend — referred to as a "global warming hiatus" — has sparked a lot of debate and given rise to a reasonable question: Is global warming coming to a halt?
  3. According to Norman Loeb, an atmospheric scientist at NASA's Langley Research Center in Hampton, Virginia, and the principal investigator of a space-borne sensor called the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System, or CERES, the answer is almost certainly no.
  4. "Heating is still going on," he said. "It's just not in terms of the surface air temperature."
  5. Loeb explained the science behind that statement Tuesday, Aug. 5, during a talk at NASA Langley titled "The Recent Pause in Global Warming: A Temporary Blip or Something More Permanent?"
  6. Though Loeb believes there are a handful of short-term factors that drive changes in surface air temperature, like the El Niño and La Niña phenomena that cause temperature fluctuations in the tropical eastern Pacific approximately every two years, he thinks there is a longer term factor that is a significant and overlooked contributor.
  7. "The Pacific Decadal Oscillation affects surface temperature," Loeb said. "It's a pattern of temperature shifts, primarily over the Pacific, that occurs about every 20 or 30 years."
  8. Historically, those shifts have coincided with changes in surface temperature.
  9. "The Pacific Decadal Oscillation has a very distinctive pattern. During the positive phase, surface temperature rises more rapidly," he said. "During the negative phase, the rate of temperature increase slows down, hence a hiatus. It's very compelling when you see the actual observations."
  10. Loeb showed measurements during his talk demonstrating steady increases in surface air temperature from 1920 to 1940 and again from 1976 to 2000, periods when the decadal oscillation was in a positive phase. From 1940 to 1975, and again beginning in 2001, temperatures leveled out in concert with negative oscillation phases.
  11. Surface air temperatures have increased by approximately 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit since the early 20th century. On this timescale, the hiatuses look like short ledges along a graph of global average surface air temperature with an otherwise steep upward slope.
  12. "You can't just look at short periods of time," Loeb said. "You have to look at the record over a long period of time to see the pattern. There will be natural fluctuations at shorter time scales, but we really shouldn't conclude that that's a change and global warming is going away."
  13. Even as surface air temperatures are currently holding relatively steady, Loeb believes there's still another issue to take into consideration.
  14. "Observations are showing us the planet is still taking up heat, but it is just showing up in a different place," he said.
  15. That different place is the ocean.
  16. In other words, as humans and nature continue to apply pressure to the Earth's climate through increases in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, temperatures are still rising. But as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation briefly tames temperatures at the planet's surface, the oceans are where the real heating is happening.
  17. "If you add extra heat to the Earth system, approximately 93 percent of that extra heat ends up stored in the ocean, and the ocean is very deep," Loeb said. "When we look at air temperature, we are just looking at the surface. There's a whole deep ocean where heat can be stored."
  18. Scientists are studying ocean temperatures with instruments known as “Argo floats.” These instruments drift freely throughout the world’s oceans, collecting temperature and salinity measurements to a depth of around 6000 feet. The floats rise to the surface and transmit their data to a satellite every 10 days. Currently, more than 3,600 Argo floats distributed in the planet's oceans show that the oceans are taking up heat over time, according to Loeb.
  19. Combine that with data from NASA's CERES sensor, which shows the rate of heat uptake by the whole planet is nearly constant, and it becomes clear that the planet is still warming, even as the increase in surface air temperatures lull temporarily.
  20. "Heat can be redistributed," Loeb said of the energy. "Changes in the circulation patterns in the ocean and atmosphere will result in redistribution of the heat — and that is what is going on during the different phases of this [Pacific Decadal Oscillation]."
  21. Loeb and the overwhelming majority of his fellow climate scientists argue that as humans continue to pump carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere at unprecedented rates — atmospheric carbon dioxide measurements hit 400 parts per million in May 2013 — climate change will continue. Current estimates have global average surface air temperatures rising anywhere from approximately 3 to 8.5 degrees Fahrenheit by the year 2100, depending on how much carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are added to the atmosphere and accounting for uncertainty in predictions.
  22. But even given the scientific evidence that points toward definite warming, and data that shows that the last three decades have been the hottest on record, each one a little bit warmer than the last, Loeb encourages the scientific community to improve its observations and models of the climate system, and to discuss the science objectively and rationally.
  23. "It’s okay to be skeptical," he said. "Scientists are skeptical by nature. But at the same time, we need to be reasonable.”
In the ninth paragraph, which of the following is true, according to the author, regarding the Pacific Decadal Oscillation?

Correct! Wrong!

Answer 4: Paragraph 9 is a straight description of the phenomenon, and it pretty much lays it out as seen in Answer 4.

'Hiatus in rise of Earth's surface air temperature likely temporary'
  1. Between 1998 and 2012, climate scientists observed a slowdown in the rate at which the Earth's surface air temperature was rising. While the rise in global mean surface air temperature has continued, between 1998 and 2012 the increase was approximately one third of that from 1951 to 2012.
  2. This trend — referred to as a "global warming hiatus" — has sparked a lot of debate and given rise to a reasonable question: Is global warming coming to a halt?
  3. According to Norman Loeb, an atmospheric scientist at NASA's Langley Research Center in Hampton, Virginia, and the principal investigator of a space-borne sensor called the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System, or CERES, the answer is almost certainly no.
  4. "Heating is still going on," he said. "It's just not in terms of the surface air temperature."
  5. Loeb explained the science behind that statement Tuesday, Aug. 5, during a talk at NASA Langley titled "The Recent Pause in Global Warming: A Temporary Blip or Something More Permanent?"
  6. Though Loeb believes there are a handful of short-term factors that drive changes in surface air temperature, like the El Niño and La Niña phenomena that cause temperature fluctuations in the tropical eastern Pacific approximately every two years, he thinks there is a longer term factor that is a significant and overlooked contributor.
  7. "The Pacific Decadal Oscillation affects surface temperature," Loeb said. "It's a pattern of temperature shifts, primarily over the Pacific, that occurs about every 20 or 30 years."
  8. Historically, those shifts have coincided with changes in surface temperature.
  9. "The Pacific Decadal Oscillation has a very distinctive pattern. During the positive phase, surface temperature rises more rapidly," he said. "During the negative phase, the rate of temperature increase slows down, hence a hiatus. It's very compelling when you see the actual observations."
  10. Loeb showed measurements during his talk demonstrating steady increases in surface air temperature from 1920 to 1940 and again from 1976 to 2000, periods when the decadal oscillation was in a positive phase. From 1940 to 1975, and again beginning in 2001, temperatures leveled out in concert with negative oscillation phases.
  11. Surface air temperatures have increased by approximately 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit since the early 20th century. On this timescale, the hiatuses look like short ledges along a graph of global average surface air temperature with an otherwise steep upward slope.
  12. "You can't just look at short periods of time," Loeb said. "You have to look at the record over a long period of time to see the pattern. There will be natural fluctuations at shorter time scales, but we really shouldn't conclude that that's a change and global warming is going away."
  13. Even as surface air temperatures are currently holding relatively steady, Loeb believes there's still another issue to take into consideration.
  14. "Observations are showing us the planet is still taking up heat, but it is just showing up in a different place," he said.
  15. That different place is the ocean.
  16. In other words, as humans and nature continue to apply pressure to the Earth's climate through increases in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, temperatures are still rising. But as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation briefly tames temperatures at the planet's surface, the oceans are where the real heating is happening.
  17. "If you add extra heat to the Earth system, approximately 93 percent of that extra heat ends up stored in the ocean, and the ocean is very deep," Loeb said. "When we look at air temperature, we are just looking at the surface. There's a whole deep ocean where heat can be stored."
  18. Scientists are studying ocean temperatures with instruments known as “Argo floats.” These instruments drift freely throughout the world’s oceans, collecting temperature and salinity measurements to a depth of around 6000 feet. The floats rise to the surface and transmit their data to a satellite every 10 days. Currently, more than 3,600 Argo floats distributed in the planet's oceans show that the oceans are taking up heat over time, according to Loeb.
  19. Combine that with data from NASA's CERES sensor, which shows the rate of heat uptake by the whole planet is nearly constant, and it becomes clear that the planet is still warming, even as the increase in surface air temperatures lull temporarily.
  20. "Heat can be redistributed," Loeb said of the energy. "Changes in the circulation patterns in the ocean and atmosphere will result in redistribution of the heat — and that is what is going on during the different phases of this [Pacific Decadal Oscillation]."
  21. Loeb and the overwhelming majority of his fellow climate scientists argue that as humans continue to pump carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere at unprecedented rates — atmospheric carbon dioxide measurements hit 400 parts per million in May 2013 — climate change will continue. Current estimates have global average surface air temperatures rising anywhere from approximately 3 to 8.5 degrees Fahrenheit by the year 2100, depending on how much carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are added to the atmosphere and accounting for uncertainty in predictions.
  22. But even given the scientific evidence that points toward definite warming, and data that shows that the last three decades have been the hottest on record, each one a little bit warmer than the last, Loeb encourages the scientific community to improve its observations and models of the climate system, and to discuss the science objectively and rationally.
  23. "It’s okay to be skeptical," he said. "Scientists are skeptical by nature. But at the same time, we need to be reasonable.”
In paragraph 12, what is the most likely reason that Loeb discourages against looking solely at short-term weather patterns?

Correct! Wrong!

Answer 1: While some of the other selections may be partially true, Answer 1 best explains Loeb's reasoning.

'Hiatus in rise of Earth's surface air temperature likely temporary'
  1. Between 1998 and 2012, climate scientists observed a slowdown in the rate at which the Earth's surface air temperature was rising. While the rise in global mean surface air temperature has continued, between 1998 and 2012 the increase was approximately one third of that from 1951 to 2012.
  2. This trend — referred to as a "global warming hiatus" — has sparked a lot of debate and given rise to a reasonable question: Is global warming coming to a halt?
  3. According to Norman Loeb, an atmospheric scientist at NASA's Langley Research Center in Hampton, Virginia, and the principal investigator of a space-borne sensor called the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System, or CERES, the answer is almost certainly no.
  4. "Heating is still going on," he said. "It's just not in terms of the surface air temperature."
  5. Loeb explained the science behind that statement Tuesday, Aug. 5, during a talk at NASA Langley titled "The Recent Pause in Global Warming: A Temporary Blip or Something More Permanent?"
  6. Though Loeb believes there are a handful of short-term factors that drive changes in surface air temperature, like the El Niño and La Niña phenomena that cause temperature fluctuations in the tropical eastern Pacific approximately every two years, he thinks there is a longer term factor that is a significant and overlooked contributor.
  7. "The Pacific Decadal Oscillation affects surface temperature," Loeb said. "It's a pattern of temperature shifts, primarily over the Pacific, that occurs about every 20 or 30 years."
  8. Historically, those shifts have coincided with changes in surface temperature.
  9. "The Pacific Decadal Oscillation has a very distinctive pattern. During the positive phase, surface temperature rises more rapidly," he said. "During the negative phase, the rate of temperature increase slows down, hence a hiatus. It's very compelling when you see the actual observations."
  10. Loeb showed measurements during his talk demonstrating steady increases in surface air temperature from 1920 to 1940 and again from 1976 to 2000, periods when the decadal oscillation was in a positive phase. From 1940 to 1975, and again beginning in 2001, temperatures leveled out in concert with negative oscillation phases.
  11. Surface air temperatures have increased by approximately 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit since the early 20th century. On this timescale, the hiatuses look like short ledges along a graph of global average surface air temperature with an otherwise steep upward slope.
  12. "You can't just look at short periods of time," Loeb said. "You have to look at the record over a long period of time to see the pattern. There will be natural fluctuations at shorter time scales, but we really shouldn't conclude that that's a change and global warming is going away."
  13. Even as surface air temperatures are currently holding relatively steady, Loeb believes there's still another issue to take into consideration.
  14. "Observations are showing us the planet is still taking up heat, but it is just showing up in a different place," he said.
  15. That different place is the ocean.
  16. In other words, as humans and nature continue to apply pressure to the Earth's climate through increases in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, temperatures are still rising. But as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation briefly tames temperatures at the planet's surface, the oceans are where the real heating is happening.
  17. "If you add extra heat to the Earth system, approximately 93 percent of that extra heat ends up stored in the ocean, and the ocean is very deep," Loeb said. "When we look at air temperature, we are just looking at the surface. There's a whole deep ocean where heat can be stored."
  18. Scientists are studying ocean temperatures with instruments known as “Argo floats.” These instruments drift freely throughout the world’s oceans, collecting temperature and salinity measurements to a depth of around 6000 feet. The floats rise to the surface and transmit their data to a satellite every 10 days. Currently, more than 3,600 Argo floats distributed in the planet's oceans show that the oceans are taking up heat over time, according to Loeb.
  19. Combine that with data from NASA's CERES sensor, which shows the rate of heat uptake by the whole planet is nearly constant, and it becomes clear that the planet is still warming, even as the increase in surface air temperatures lull temporarily.
  20. "Heat can be redistributed," Loeb said of the energy. "Changes in the circulation patterns in the ocean and atmosphere will result in redistribution of the heat — and that is what is going on during the different phases of this [Pacific Decadal Oscillation]."
  21. Loeb and the overwhelming majority of his fellow climate scientists argue that as humans continue to pump carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere at unprecedented rates — atmospheric carbon dioxide measurements hit 400 parts per million in May 2013 — climate change will continue. Current estimates have global average surface air temperatures rising anywhere from approximately 3 to 8.5 degrees Fahrenheit by the year 2100, depending on how much carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are added to the atmosphere and accounting for uncertainty in predictions.
  22. But even given the scientific evidence that points toward definite warming, and data that shows that the last three decades have been the hottest on record, each one a little bit warmer than the last, Loeb encourages the scientific community to improve its observations and models of the climate system, and to discuss the science objectively and rationally.
  23. "It’s okay to be skeptical," he said. "Scientists are skeptical by nature. But at the same time, we need to be reasonable.”
Which choice provides the best evidence for the previous question?

Correct! Wrong!

Answer 4: Paragraph 10 gives a clear case study of how this works. The other selections do not go into enough detail.

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