Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Assessing Probability of Inferences Questions and Answers 3 — Questions and Answers
Question 1: Passage: A city's annual report shows that ambulance response times improved by 18% after new dispatch software was installed last year. An analyst concludes: 'The new dispatch software is solely responsible for the improvement in ambulance response times.' How should this inference be rated?
- True
- Probably True
- Probably False (Correct answer)
- Insufficient Data
Correct answer: Probably False
The inference is probably false because other factors—such as hiring additional staff, road changes, or reduced call volume—could also have contributed to the improvement.
Question 2: Passage: In a survey of 500 office workers, 72% reported feeling more productive when they had access to natural light at their workstations. Inference: 'All workers are more productive when exposed to natural light.' How should this inference be rated?
- True
- Probably True
- Probably False (Correct answer)
- Insufficient Data
Correct answer: Probably False
The inference is probably false because 'feeling more productive' does not equal actually being more productive, and 'all workers' overgeneralizes from a sample.
Question 3: Passage: A local bakery raised the price of its signature loaf from $3 to $5. Sales of that loaf dropped by 30% in the following month. Inference: 'Customers stopped buying the loaf because they disliked the new price.' How should this inference be rated?
- True
- Probably True (Correct answer)
- Insufficient Data
- Probably False
Correct answer: Probably True
The inference is probably true because a 30% sales drop immediately following a 67% price increase strongly suggests price sensitivity, though other causes cannot be entirely ruled out.
Question 4: Passage: The statement reads: 'Every student who attended the optional SAT prep workshop scored above the school average on the SAT.' Inference: 'Attending the prep workshop causes students to score above average.' How should this inference be rated?
- True
- Probably True
- Probably False
- Insufficient Data (Correct answer)
Correct answer: Insufficient Data
There is insufficient data because students who chose to attend may already have been higher-achieving, making self-selection a confounding factor.
Question 5: Passage: A hospital reports that patients who received a new post-surgery care protocol spent on average 1.5 fewer days in the hospital than patients who did not. The study controlled for age, diagnosis severity, and surgeon. Inference: 'The new care protocol reduced hospital stay length.' How should this inference be rated?
- Probably True (Correct answer)
- Insufficient Data
- Probably False
- False
Correct answer: Probably True
The inference is probably true because the study controlled for major confounders, making the protocol the most plausible explanation for the reduction.
Question 6: Passage: A social media platform reports that users who post more than 10 times per day have twice as many followers as users who post fewer than 3 times per day. Inference: 'Posting more frequently will double a user's followers.' How should this inference be rated?
- True
- Probably True
- Insufficient Data
- Probably False (Correct answer)
Correct answer: Probably False
The inference is probably false because high-follower accounts may post more because they are already popular, not the other way around; reverse causation is plausible.
Question 7: In the Watson-Glaser inference section, which condition most strongly supports rating an inference as 'True' rather than 'Probably True'?
- The inference is a logical deduction that must follow from the stated facts (Correct answer)
- The inference is supported by most of the evidence presented
- The inference seems reasonable given common sense
- The passage suggests the inference without directly stating it
Correct answer: The inference is a logical deduction that must follow from the stated facts
'True' is reserved for inferences that are logical deductions necessarily following from the passage, not merely probable or reasonable conclusions.
Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Assessing Probability of Inferences Questions and Answers 3
Passage: A city's annual report shows that ambulance response times improved by 18% after new dispatch software was installed last year.
An analyst concludes: 'The new dispatch software is solely responsible for the improvement in ambulance response times.' How should this inference be rated?