Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Watson-Glaser Inference and Assumption Tests 1 — Questions and Answers
Question 1: Statement: A pharmaceutical company conducted a 5-year study on 10,000 adults. Participants who slept fewer than 6 hours per night had a 35% higher rate of cardiovascular incidents than those who slept 7–9 hours. The study controlled for diet and exercise. Based ONLY on the above, is this inference TRUE, PROBABLY TRUE, based on INSUFFICIENT DATA, or FALSE? Inference: People who sleep less than 6 hours are more likely to develop heart problems.
- True
- Probably True (Correct answer)
- Insufficient Data
- False
Correct answer: Probably True
The study shows a statistical association, not absolute proof of causation, making 'Probably True' the best fit.
The passage shows a strong, controlled statistical association between short sleep and cardiovascular incidents. However, because the passage describes a correlational study — not a clinical trial proving causation — and because other unmeasured factors may play a role, we can say the inference is 'Probably True' rather than definitively 'True.'
Question 2: Statement: The city of Riverdale introduced a congestion charge for vehicles entering the city centre between 7 AM and 7 PM on weekdays. In the six months following the charge, traffic volumes in the centre fell by 22% and average journey times dropped by 14 minutes. Based ONLY on the above, is this inference TRUE, PROBABLY TRUE, based on INSUFFICIENT DATA, or FALSE? Inference: The congestion charge caused some drivers to avoid the city centre during charging hours.
- True (Correct answer)
- Probably True
- Insufficient Data
- False
Correct answer: True
The passage directly states traffic fell after the charge — the inference is fully supported as True.
The passage states that after the congestion charge was introduced, traffic volumes fell by 22%. This directly and logically supports the inference that some drivers altered their behaviour to avoid the charge. No additional information is needed; the inference is True based solely on what is stated.
Question 3: Statement: A regional survey found that 68% of employees at companies offering flexible working hours reported higher job satisfaction than those at companies with fixed hours. Flexible working was defined as the ability to choose start and finish times within a core window. Based ONLY on the above, is this inference TRUE, PROBABLY TRUE, based on INSUFFICIENT DATA, or FALSE? Inference: Companies that do not offer flexible working will experience higher staff turnover.
- True
- Probably True
- Insufficient Data (Correct answer)
- False
Correct answer: Insufficient Data
The passage discusses satisfaction, not turnover. No data on turnover is provided.
While lower job satisfaction might intuitively link to higher turnover, the passage provides no data about staff turnover at all. Making an inference about turnover requires information the passage does not supply. Therefore, we have insufficient data to judge this inference.
Question 4: Statement: An assumption is something taken for granted, not proved. Statement: 'The government should invest more in renewable energy to reduce carbon emissions.' Which of the following is an assumption made in this statement?
- Renewable energy investment will definitely eliminate all carbon emissions.
- Reducing carbon emissions is a desirable goal. (Correct answer)
- The government currently invests nothing in renewable energy.
- Renewable energy is cheaper than fossil fuels.
Correct answer: Reducing carbon emissions is a desirable goal.
The statement only makes sense if we assume reducing carbon emissions is worthwhile — this is taken for granted, not argued.
The statement recommends investment to reduce carbon emissions. For this recommendation to be logical, the speaker must assume that reducing carbon emissions is a desirable outcome. This is not stated explicitly — it is assumed. The other options are either too extreme ('eliminate all'), make a factual claim not implied ('invests nothing'), or introduce unrelated economics ('cheaper').
Question 5: Statement: A marketing agency noted that its social media campaigns generated three times more leads per pound spent than its print advertising campaigns over the past year. Based ONLY on the above, is this inference TRUE, PROBABLY TRUE, based on INSUFFICIENT DATA, or FALSE? Inference: The agency will completely abandon print advertising next year.
- True
- Probably True
- Insufficient Data (Correct answer)
- False
Correct answer: Insufficient Data
The passage reports ROI data but says nothing about future decisions.
The passage only tells us about past performance metrics. It does not say anything about what the agency plans to do next year, whether print serves purposes beyond lead generation (brand awareness, client requirements), or any strategic decisions. We have insufficient data to infer future actions.
Question 6: Statement: An assumption is something taken for granted, not proved. Statement: 'Providing free school meals to all children will improve academic performance.' Which of the following is an assumption made in this statement?
- All children currently go to school hungry.
- Nutrition has an impact on a child's ability to learn. (Correct answer)
- Free school meals are easy to fund.
- Academic performance is the only measure of school success.
Correct answer: Nutrition has an impact on a child's ability to learn.
The statement only makes sense if nutrition and learning are connected — this link is assumed, not stated.
For free meals to improve academic performance, there must be a causal link between nutrition and learning capacity — this is the core assumption. Option A is too extreme (not 'all' children need to be hungry). Option C introduces a funding argument not present. Option D makes a claim about other measures that is not assumed. Only B is necessarily assumed.
Question 7: Statement: Over a 10-year period, countries with higher rates of university degree holders showed GDP growth rates averaging 2.1% higher than countries with lower rates of degree holders. The analysis covered 40 nations across varying income levels. Based ONLY on the above, is this inference TRUE, PROBABLY TRUE, based on INSUFFICIENT DATA, or FALSE? Inference: Investing in higher education contributes to economic growth.
- True
- Probably True (Correct answer)
- Insufficient Data
- False
Correct answer: Probably True
The correlation across 40 nations is strong evidence, but the passage stops short of proving direct causation.
The 40-nation dataset showing a consistent 2.1% GDP difference makes it probable that higher education contributes to growth. However, confounding variables (governance quality, natural resources, trade policies) are not ruled out, and the passage reports correlation, not causation. Hence 'Probably True' is the precise answer rather than 'True.'
Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Watson-Glaser Inference and Assumption Tests 1
Statement: A pharmaceutical company conducted a 5-year study on 10,000 adults.
Participants who slept fewer than 6 hours per night had a 35% higher rate of cardiovascular incidents than those who slept 7–9 hours.
The study controlled for diet and exercise.
Based ONLY on the above, is this inference TRUE, PROBABLY TRUE, based on INSUFFICIENT DATA, or FALSE? Inference: People who sleep less than 6 hours are more likely to develop heart problems.