Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Evaluating Causal Relationships

Question 1

A study finds that cities with more ice cream sales have higher drowning rates. A researcher concludes that ice cream causes drowning. What is the most critical flaw?

Accepted Answer

A confounding variable (hot weather) likely explains both trends.

Answer

The sample size of the study was too small.

Answer

Ice cream sales data is unreliable.

Answer

Drowning rates are always underreported.

Question 2

Every time employee morale surveys score high, productivity increases the following quarter. A manager concludes that high morale causes productivity gains. What must be considered?

Accepted Answer

Reverse causation is possible — rising productivity may lift morale first.

Answer

Survey methods are always biased.

Answer

Productivity data lags by more than one quarter.

Answer

Managers influence both morale and productivity equally.

Question 3

A new training program was introduced in January. Errors dropped by 20% in February. The HR team declares the training caused the drop. Which alternative explanation weakens this claim most?

Accepted Answer

A separate process improvement was also implemented in January.

Answer

The training lasted only two days.

Answer

Some employees did not attend the training.

Answer

February historically has fewer working hours.

Question 4

Research shows people who eat breakfast regularly earn higher incomes. A public health report states: 'Eating breakfast boosts earning potential.' What reasoning error is present?

Accepted Answer

Confounding variables such as socioeconomic status likely explain both habits.

Answer

The report uses income data that is outdated.

Answer

Sample selection excluded part-time workers.

Answer

Breakfast nutritional quality was not measured.

Question 5

A company notices that departments with standing desks report fewer sick days. They plan to give all employees standing desks to cut absenteeism. What critical thinking concern applies?

Accepted Answer

Self-selection bias: healthier employees may have chosen standing desks.

Answer

Standing desks are too expensive to scale company-wide.

Answer

The sick day data may not be accurately recorded.

Answer

Standing desks are only beneficial for certain roles.

Question 6

Post hoc ergo propter hoc is a logical fallacy in which:

Accepted Answer

An event following another is assumed to be caused by it.

Answer

A cause is assumed to always produce the same effect.

Answer

Two simultaneous events are both called causes.

Answer

A general rule is applied incorrectly to a specific case.