Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal — Questions and Answers

Question 1: Which source would be MOST credible when evaluating claims about the long-term safety of a new industrial chemical?

A press release from the manufacturer seeking regulatory approval
A blog post by a retired chemist who opposes industrial regulation
A documentary produced by an environmental advocacy group
An independent peer-reviewed study by university toxicologists with no industry funding (Correct answer)

Correct answer: An independent peer-reviewed study by university toxicologists with no industry funding

Independence from financial interest, relevant expertise, and peer review are the three pillars of source credibility. Option C satisfies all three: the researchers have no financial stake, have relevant scientific credentials, and their work has been evaluated by other experts.

Question 2: Premises: 'No project that exceeds its budget by more than 20% will receive continued funding. Project Orion has exceeded its budget by 25%.' What conclusion necessarily follows?

Project Orion's manager will be disciplined.
Project Orion will not receive continued funding. (Correct answer)
Project Orion may lose its funding.
Project Orion should be restructured to reduce costs.

Correct answer: Project Orion will not receive continued funding.

The premise uses 'no project' — a universal negative — meaning the rule applies without exception to all projects exceeding budget by more than 20%, including Orion at 25%.

Question 3: Statement: 'The number of registered electric vehicles in the country tripled over the last three years, while the number of new petrol vehicle registrations declined by 22%.' Inference: 'Consumer preference is shifting significantly from petrol to electric vehicles.' How should this inference be rated?

Insufficient data — registration numbers do not reflect consumer preferences.
Probably true — the data strongly suggests a shift in consumer preference, though other factors may contribute. (Correct answer)
Definitely true — a triple increase and 22% decline prove a preference shift.
Probably false — electric vehicles are still a minority of total registrations.

Correct answer: Probably true — the data strongly suggests a shift in consumer preference, though other factors may contribute.

The combination of rapidly rising EV registrations and declining petrol registrations is strong evidence of a preference shift, though subsidies, fuel prices, or regulation could also be driving it.

Question 4: Statement: Whenever humidity exceeds 80%, the warehouse's dehumidifiers activate automatically. The humidity in the warehouse is currently 85%. Conclusion: The dehumidifiers are currently active. This conclusion is:

False
Probably True
True (Correct answer)
Insufficient Data

Correct answer: True

The trigger condition (humidity above 80%) is met, and the system is described as automatic, so activation necessarily follows.

Question 5: Either the data is corrupted or the analysis software has a bug. The data has been verified as uncorrupted. What must follow?

The entire study must be repeated.
The analysis software has a bug. (Correct answer)
Both causes contributed to the error.
No error actually occurred.

Correct answer: The analysis software has a bug.

Disjunctive syllogism eliminates the first option, leaving the second as the necessary conclusion.

Question 6: A city is planning to build a new sports stadium. The argument in favor is that it will create jobs and boost the local economy. Which of the following pieces of evidence is most relevant to evaluating this economic argument?

The proposed location for the stadium is currently an underutilized industrial area.
The city's most popular sports team has had a winning record for the past three seasons.
A poll shows that 70% of the city's residents are excited about the prospect of a new stadium.
Economic impact studies of recently built stadiums in similarly-sized cities show a net financial loss for the public over 30 years. (Correct answer)

Correct answer: Economic impact studies of recently built stadiums in similarly-sized cities show a net financial loss for the public over 30 years.

This option is the most relevant because it directly addresses the core economic claim of the argument by providing data from comparable situations. The success of such projects in other cities is a strong indicator of the likely outcome here. The team's record (A) and public excitement (D) are related to the team's popularity but not its economic impact. The location's current state (B) is relevant to urban planning but is secondary to the primary financial argument.

Question 7: Passage: A survey of 500 college freshmen found that 78% who had taken AP courses in high school reported feeling 'well-prepared' for college coursework, compared to 45% of those who had not. Which conclusion follows from this data?

College professors prefer students who took AP courses.
AP course participation is strongly linked to feelings of college preparedness. (Correct answer)
Students without AP courses will fail their first year of college.
AP courses are the only path to feeling prepared for college.

Correct answer: AP course participation is strongly linked to feelings of college preparedness.

The survey data supports a link between AP participation and self-reported preparedness, without justifying absolute or causal conclusions.

Question 8: A newspaper headline reads: 'Coffee Drinkers Live Longer.' The supporting study controlled for smoking and exercise. What is still needed to establish causation?

A randomized controlled trial to rule out remaining confounders. (Correct answer)
Longitudinal data on coffee brand preferences.
Government regulation of coffee consumption studies.
A larger headline sample size.

Correct answer: A randomized controlled trial to rule out remaining confounders.

Observational studies, even when controlling for known confounders, cannot fully establish causation the way a randomized experiment can.

Question 9: Quarterly earnings data shows Company Z's revenue grew 8% in Q1, declined 3% in Q2, grew 5% in Q3, and declined 2% in Q4, for a net annual growth of about 8%. An analyst concludes the company had a strong year. Is this interpretation supported?

Yes — quarterly fluctuations are normal and don't affect the annual conclusion.
Partially — 8% net growth is positive, but the within-year volatility suggests instability that warrants further investigation. (Correct answer)
No — any decline in any quarter means the company performed poorly.
Yes — 8% annual growth is objectively strong in any industry.

Correct answer: Partially — 8% net growth is positive, but the within-year volatility suggests instability that warrants further investigation.

Net annual growth is a positive signal, but alternating growth and decline quarters suggest revenue instability that a simple annual figure masks — a fuller picture requires understanding the volatility.

Question 10: Statement: An assumption is something taken for granted, not proved. Statement: 'Providing free school meals to all children will improve academic performance.' Which of the following is an assumption made in this statement?

Nutrition has an impact on a child's ability to learn. (Correct answer)
All children currently go to school hungry.
Free school meals are easy to fund.
Academic performance is the only measure of school success.

Correct answer: Nutrition has an impact on a child's ability to learn.

The statement only makes sense if nutrition and learning are connected — this link is assumed, not stated.

Question 11: A passage states: 'Athletes who train at high altitude for 3 weeks show a 5% improvement in endurance performance on average.' Which conclusion is best supported?

All athletes will improve endurance by exactly 5% with altitude training.
Altitude training is the most effective endurance training method available.
On average, athletes in this study improved endurance by 5% after high-altitude training. (Correct answer)
Athletes who do not train at altitude will fail to improve their endurance.

Correct answer: On average, athletes in this study improved endurance by 5% after high-altitude training.

The passage specifies an average finding for athletes who trained under these conditions, which is all the data supports.

Question 12: Country Y banned single-use plastic bags two years ago. Plastic bag litter on beaches decreased by 60%, but total beach litter decreased by only 10%. Which inference is BEST supported?

The plastic bag ban was ineffective and should be repealed
Citizens are ignoring the ban and still using plastic bags
Beach cleanup efforts coincidentally increased during the same period
Other types of litter make up a large proportion of total beach waste (Correct answer)

Correct answer: Other types of litter make up a large proportion of total beach waste

The sharp drop in bag litter with only a modest drop in total litter indicates that plastic bags were a relatively small fraction of all beach waste.

Question 13: Argument: 'We are spending too much money on space exploration. Therefore, we should spend that money on solving hunger.' What fallacy might lurk in this reasoning?

Straw man — it misrepresents why space exploration funding exists.
False dilemma — it assumes the only alternative to space spending is hunger relief, when the money could serve many purposes. (Correct answer)
Slippery slope — it assumes reducing space funding will lead to solving all world hunger.
Circular reasoning — hunger is defined as a problem caused by space spending.

Correct answer: False dilemma — it assumes the only alternative to space spending is hunger relief, when the money could serve many purposes.

The argument implies only two uses for the money (space exploration or hunger relief), when government budget allocations involve many competing priorities and the freed funds could go elsewhere.

Question 14: The nine-month-old infant I have at home normally accepts being put to bed, where she soon nods off. She sobs when I put her to bed, and she cries for an hour every time her grandparents come to visit in the evening. <br> <br> The main physiological cause of my baby's difficulty is that her grandparents feed her chocolates, and the sugar makes her hyperactive.

Conclusion follows
Conclusion does not follow (Correct answer)

Correct answer: Conclusion does not follow

The passage only states that the baby cries when her grandparents visit. It provides absolutely no information about what the grandparents do during their visit, such as feeding the baby chocolates, nor does it mention any physiological causes like sugar-induced hyperactivity. The inference is pure speculation and not supported by the given text.

Question 15: A passage notes that a community garden project in a low-income neighborhood led to a 30% increase in residents reporting they 'feel connected to neighbors.' Which conclusion is best supported?

The garden project solved the neighborhood's social isolation problems permanently.
Community gardens are the best way to improve social bonds in urban areas.
Low-income residents are always lonely without community initiatives.
Residents in this neighborhood reported feeling more connected after the garden project. (Correct answer)

Correct answer: Residents in this neighborhood reported feeling more connected after the garden project.

The data reflects self-reported feelings in one neighborhood after one project and does not generalize or speak to permanence.

Question 16: A tech company piloted a four-day workweek for six months. Project completion rates remained unchanged, but employee sick days decreased by 30%. Which inference is MOST justified?

Reducing the workweek to four days appears to lower absenteeism without harming output (Correct answer)
Employees who work fewer days are inherently more motivated than full-week workers
The four-day workweek caused productivity to rise across the broader industry
All companies should immediately adopt a four-day workweek to improve employee health

Correct answer: Reducing the workweek to four days appears to lower absenteeism without harming output

The data directly shows two outcomes: stable productivity and fewer sick days. Option B restates these facts accurately without overclaiming. Option A extends the finding beyond this company; Option C prescribes universal action the data cannot support; Option D introduces a motivational explanation not mentioned in the evidence.

Question 17: A town reports that installing speed cameras on Main Street reduced accidents by 40%. A resident argues the cameras should be installed on all streets. What is the primary flaw in the resident's reasoning?

The 40% reduction may not be statistically significant
Other streets may already have low accident rates
Speed cameras are expensive to install and maintain
The resident assumes that conditions on Main Street are representative of all streets in town (Correct answer)

Correct answer: The resident assumes that conditions on Main Street are representative of all streets in town

Generalizing results from one street to all streets assumes comparable traffic conditions, which may not hold.

Question 18: Question: 'Should governments regulate social media content?' Argument: 'Freedom of expression is a fundamental human right that governments should protect.' Is this argument strong and relevant?

Yes — fundamental rights always override policy considerations.
No — freedom of expression applies to governments, not private companies, so it is irrelevant.
No — social media companies are not mentioned in any freedom of expression law.
Yes — freedom of expression is directly relevant because content regulation may restrict speech. (Correct answer)

Correct answer: Yes — freedom of expression is directly relevant because content regulation may restrict speech.

Freedom of expression is directly relevant because content regulation by governments could impinge on this right — it addresses a core tension the question raises.

Question 19: Question: Should professional athletes be required to serve as role models for youth? Argument: Many professional athletes come from difficult backgrounds and have overcome significant personal challenges. Is this a strong argument?

No, because athletes are paid to perform, not to educate.
No, because an athlete's personal background does not create an obligation to serve as a role model. (Correct answer)
Yes, because overcoming hardship makes someone inspirational.
Yes, because children look up to athletes regardless.

Correct answer: No, because an athlete's personal background does not create an obligation to serve as a role model.

The argument is weak because a person's background, however admirable, is irrelevant to whether they should be legally or professionally required to be a role model.

Question 20: After a factory switched to automated machinery, production output increased by 25% while the number of workplace injuries dropped by half. What is the probability of the inference: Automation improved both productivity and worker safety at this factory.

Probably False
True
Probably True (Correct answer)
Insufficient Data

Correct answer: Probably True

The simultaneous improvement in both output and safety following the switch to automation makes it probably true that automation was the key factor in both changes.

Question 21: A weather report states: 'Temperatures dropped 15°C over six hours, and snowfall began at 11 PM.' Which of the following is an inference?

Snowfall began at 11 PM.
The temperature and snowfall are unrelated weather events.
A cold front moved through the area causing the temperature drop and snow. (Correct answer)
Temperatures dropped 15°C over six hours.

Correct answer: A cold front moved through the area causing the temperature drop and snow.

Attributing the drop and snow to a 'cold front' is a meteorological causal explanation that goes beyond what the weather report stated — it is an inference.

Question 22: A reviewer writes: 'This movie must be great — it has a 95% score on the review site, and millions of people have seen it.' Which fallacy does this commit?

Appeal to authority
False cause
Bandwagon fallacy (Correct answer)
Red herring

Correct answer: Bandwagon fallacy

The bandwagon fallacy assumes something is good or true because many people believe or do it, not because of its actual quality.

Question 23: A poll found 68% of surveyed voters support stricter environmental regulations. What is a justified interpretation?

The majority of voters surveyed expressed support for stricter environmental regulations. (Correct answer)
Most citizens in the country want stricter environmental regulations.
Stricter regulations will be passed into law.
Politicians who oppose regulations will lose their next election.

Correct answer: The majority of voters surveyed expressed support for stricter environmental regulations.

The finding applies only to those surveyed; generalizing to all citizens or predicting legislative outcomes goes beyond the data.

Question 24: A report states that 'most experts agree' that a new drug is effective, but does not cite specific studies. How should this evidence be treated in Watson-Glaser reasoning?

Treat it as weak evidence until specific, verifiable data is provided (Correct answer)
Accept it as conclusive because experts are reliable
Use it only if the drug company endorses it
Reject it entirely because experts can be wrong

Correct answer: Treat it as weak evidence until specific, verifiable data is provided

Appeal to unnamed authority without supporting data is considered weak evidence; verifiable studies are required for strong interpretation.

Question 25: Statement: Every student who joined the after-school tutoring program last semester improved their grades. Inference: All students who join the tutoring program will improve their grades. How should this inference be rated?

Insufficient Data (Correct answer)
Probably False
Probably True
True

Correct answer: Insufficient Data

The data covers only one semester's students; future outcomes depend on factors not captured in this statement.

Question 26: Some employees who pass the aptitude test are offered promotions. James passed the aptitude test. What can be deduced?

James will definitely be offered a promotion.
All employees who pass the test are promoted.
James may or may not be offered a promotion. (Correct answer)
James will not be offered a promotion.

Correct answer: James may or may not be offered a promotion.

Because 'some' employees who pass are promoted, passing the test does not guarantee a promotion for any specific individual.

Question 27: Two surveys ask about support for a new transit policy. Survey A finds 72% in favor; Survey B finds 41% in favor. The most likely explanation for this discrepancy is:

The true support is exactly 56.5%
Differences in question wording, sampling, or timing (Correct answer)
Transit policy support cannot be measured
One survey must have been faked

Correct answer: Differences in question wording, sampling, or timing

Survey results often diverge because of methodological differences such as question framing, sample demographics, or when the survey was conducted.

Question 28: Question: Should social media platforms be held legally liable for harmful content posted by users? Argument: Social media companies generate billions of dollars in annual advertising revenue. Is this a strong argument?

No, because a company's profitability is irrelevant to whether it should be legally liable for user content. (Correct answer)
No, because liability would reduce free speech online.
Yes, because profit motive explains why platforms allow harmful content.
Yes, because wealthy companies can afford to pay legal penalties.

Correct answer: No, because a company's profitability is irrelevant to whether it should be legally liable for user content.

The argument is weak because revenue size does not logically bear on the question of legal liability for third-party content.

Question 29: Read the following passage: 'At the quarterly town hall meeting, the CEO displayed a chart showing that corporate travel expenses had risen 15% over the last quarter. In the subsequent Q&A session, she stated, 'We need to be more mindful of our spending.' The following week, a memo was circulated requiring all non-essential travel to be approved by a department head.' From the passage, which statement is the most reasonable INFERENCE?

Employees had been taking advantage of the company's travel budget.
Corporate travel expenses increased by 15% in the last quarter.
The new memo requires department head approval for certain types of travel.
The CEO's concern about spending prompted the new travel approval policy. (Correct answer)

Correct answer: The CEO's concern about spending prompted the new travel approval policy.

An inference connects pieces of information to arrive at a logical conclusion that is not explicitly stated. [8] Options A and B are facts directly mentioned in the passage. Option D is a possible but unsupported inference that assumes negative intent. Option C is the most reasonable inference because it logically connects the CEO's stated concern with the administrative action that immediately followed, suggesting a cause-and-effect relationship.

Question 30: A school board is debating a proposal to require high school students to complete 100 hours of community service to graduate. Which of the following is the STRONGEST argument AGAINST this proposal?

Some students already have part-time jobs and adding a 100-hour requirement would be an unfair burden on their time.
A survey of local non-profits indicates they lack the capacity and staff to effectively manage a large influx of student volunteers. (Correct answer)
Community service should be something students choose to do out of generosity, not a mandatory requirement.
The requirement would create significant administrative work for school staff to track all the students' hours.

Correct answer: A survey of local non-profits indicates they lack the capacity and staff to effectively manage a large influx of student volunteers.

This argument is the strongest because it points to a significant logistical failure in the proposal that could make it impossible to implement effectively. It is an important, practical consideration that is directly related to the feasibility of the plan. The other arguments, while relevant, are either based on opinion (C), affect a smaller subset of people (A), or address a manageable internal problem (D).

Question 31: A passage reports: 'Participants who meditated daily for 8 weeks reported a 40% reduction in perceived stress.' What does this finding most directly support?

Stress reduction is impossible without meditation.
Daily meditation for 8 weeks was associated with a 40% self-reported drop in perceived stress. (Correct answer)
The participants in this study no longer experience stress.
Meditation eliminates stress in most people within two months.

Correct answer: Daily meditation for 8 weeks was associated with a 40% self-reported drop in perceived stress.

The finding is about self-reported perceived stress in this participant group, not an objective or universal stress elimination.

Question 32: Assume the following premises are true: 1. If a system passes the security audit, it is approved for deployment. 2. The system was not approved for deployment. Which of the following is the only logical conclusion?

The system has critical security flaws.
The system failed the security audit. (Correct answer)
The security audit was never performed.
The system will be approved for deployment later.

Correct answer: The system failed the security audit.

This follows the logical rule of Modus Tollens. The first premise is 'If P, then Q' (If audit passes, then deployed). The second premise is 'not Q' (not deployed). The only valid conclusion is 'not P' (the audit did not pass, i.e., it failed). The other options are possible explanations but are not necessary conclusions based solely on the given premises.

Question 33: A passage states: 'In a survey, 72% of customers said they would recommend Brand A to a friend.' What is the most accurate interpretation?

72% of surveyed customers indicated they would recommend Brand A. (Correct answer)
28% of customers actively dislike Brand A.
Brand A is objectively superior to competing brands.
Brand A will gain customers due to word-of-mouth referrals.

Correct answer: 72% of surveyed customers indicated they would recommend Brand A.

The data reflects what customers said they would do in a survey, not objective quality or actual future behavior.

Question 34: A report states: 'Regions that increased police presence saw crime drop by 15%.' What additional information is most critical before concluding increased policing caused the crime drop?

Whether the study was conducted over one year or five years.
Which types of crimes decreased most.
Whether other anti-crime initiatives or economic improvements occurred simultaneously in those regions. (Correct answer)
The exact number of additional officers deployed.

Correct answer: Whether other anti-crime initiatives or economic improvements occurred simultaneously in those regions.

Without knowing what else changed, the crime drop cannot be attributed solely to increased policing.

Question 35: Premise: If tuition increases by more than 5%, enrollment will decline. Premise: Enrollment did not decline. Conclusion: Tuition did not increase by more than 5%. Is this conclusion valid?

The conclusion follows only if enrollment data is final.
The conclusion follows — it is the valid contrapositive of the conditional premise. (Correct answer)
The conclusion does not follow — tuition and enrollment are independent.
The conclusion does not follow — enrollment could decline later.

Correct answer: The conclusion follows — it is the valid contrapositive of the conditional premise.

The contrapositive of 'if P then Q' is 'if not Q then not P,' which is logically equivalent; since enrollment did not decline, tuition did not increase by more than 5%.

Question 36: Premise: No city in Region A has a population under 50,000. Premise: Millbrook is a city in Region A. Conclusion: Millbrook has a population of at least 50,000. Is this conclusion valid?

The conclusion follows — the universal negative leaves no exceptions for Region A cities. (Correct answer)
The conclusion does not follow — Millbrook could be newly incorporated.
The conclusion follows only if the census data is current.
The conclusion does not follow — population thresholds change over time.

Correct answer: The conclusion follows — the universal negative leaves no exceptions for Region A cities.

Because no city in Region A has a population under 50,000 and Millbrook is a city in Region A, Millbrook must have at least 50,000 people.

Question 37: Statement: 'Should schools teach cursive handwriting?' Argument: 'No, because cursive handwriting is not tested on any major standardized exam students take.' Is this argument strong or weak?

Strong, because curricula should align with what is assessed
Strong, because students have limited time for non-tested skills
Weak, because exclusion from a standardized test does not mean a skill lacks educational value (Correct answer)
Weak, because cursive is still used in legal documents

Correct answer: Weak, because exclusion from a standardized test does not mean a skill lacks educational value

The argument is weak because the absence of cursive from standardized tests does not constitute evidence that the skill is without educational benefit.

Question 38: Statement: 'Three out of four software engineers at the firm left within six months of the new CTO taking over.' Inference: 'The new CTO's management style is causing engineers to resign.' How should this inference be rated?

Probably true — the strong correlation between the CTO's arrival and engineer departures suggests a likely connection. (Correct answer)
Definitely true — the timing proves the CTO is responsible.
Insufficient data — departure rates fluctuate for many reasons.
Definitely false — CTOs do not directly interact with engineers enough to cause resignations.

Correct answer: Probably true — the strong correlation between the CTO's arrival and engineer departures suggests a likely connection.

A 75% departure rate coinciding with a leadership change is a strong signal, but better opportunities, project cancellations, or pre-existing dissatisfaction could also contribute.

Question 39: A pharmaceutical company conducted a randomized controlled trial in which participants who took daily Vitamin D supplements reported 30% fewer colds over six months compared to the placebo group. What is the probability of the following inference: Vitamin D supplementation reduces the frequency of colds.

The inference is probably false — a correlation observed in a trial does not suggest any real-world effect
The inference is definitely false — vitamin supplements have no proven effect on viral infections
The inference is definitely true — the trial data conclusively proves that Vitamin D prevents colds
The inference is probably true — the controlled trial provides strong but not absolute evidence of a causal link (Correct answer)

Correct answer: The inference is probably true — the controlled trial provides strong but not absolute evidence of a causal link

A randomized controlled trial showing a 30% reduction provides meaningful evidence, making the inference probably true. However, a single trial can have sample-size limitations, undisclosed confounders, or industry bias, so the inference cannot be elevated to 'definitely true.'

Question 40: Passage: A university found that students who used the campus tutoring center at least once per week earned an average GPA of 3.4, compared to 2.8 for students who never used it, among those with identical SAT scores entering college. Which conclusion follows?

Students with higher SAT scores naturally gravitate toward tutoring centers.
Regular tutoring center use is associated with higher GPAs among students with similar incoming ability. (Correct answer)
The university's academic departments are ineffective without tutoring support.
Tutoring centers guarantee a 3.4 GPA for all students who attend weekly.

Correct answer: Regular tutoring center use is associated with higher GPAs among students with similar incoming ability.

Controlling for SAT scores strengthens the association between tutoring and GPA, but the data does not guarantee outcomes or imply departmental failure.

Question 41: A politician states: 'Either you support this bill entirely, or you are against economic progress.' Which form of biased reasoning does this statement exemplify?

Ad hominem
Circular reasoning
False dichotomy (Correct answer)
Straw man fallacy

Correct answer: False dichotomy

A false dichotomy presents only two options as if no alternatives exist, forcing a choice between extremes when middle positions are possible.

Question 42: Statement: 'Should fast food restaurants be required to display calorie counts on menus?' Argument: 'Yes, because research shows that visible calorie information leads many consumers to make lower-calorie choices.' Is this argument strong or weak?

Strong, because it provides behavioral evidence directly supporting the policy's goal (Correct answer)
Weak, because some people do not count calories
Strong, because consumers have a right to information
Weak, because restaurants already offer salads

Correct answer: Strong, because it provides behavioral evidence directly supporting the policy's goal

The argument is strong because it cites evidence directly linking the policy mechanism (display) to the intended outcome (healthier choices).

Question 43: Statement: 'Should professional athletes be required to serve as community role models?' Argument: 'No, because athletes are paid to perform, not to mentor, and conflating these roles creates unfair expectations.' Is this argument strong or weak?

Weak, because athletes voluntarily enter the public eye
Strong, because athletes are overpaid anyway
Weak, because role models are always beneficial to communities
Strong, because it draws a relevant distinction between job duties and social obligations (Correct answer)

Correct answer: Strong, because it draws a relevant distinction between job duties and social obligations

The argument is strong because it makes a directly relevant distinction between a professional's contractual role and externally imposed social duties.

Question 44: Question: 'Should the school week be shortened to four days?' Strong or weak: 'My neighbor's child loved going to school only four days a week when they tried it.'

Weak — neighbor's children are not experts in education policy.
Weak — a single personal anecdote is insufficient evidence for a broad educational policy decision. (Correct answer)
Strong — parental opinions are the most important input for school policy.
Strong — anecdotal evidence can represent broader sentiment.

Correct answer: Weak — a single personal anecdote is insufficient evidence for a broad educational policy decision.

A single anecdote about one child's experience cannot support a systemic policy change — it lacks generalizability, methodological rigor, and ignores academic, economic, and childcare implications.

Question 45: A study found that employees who work remotely at least three days per week report higher job satisfaction than those who work entirely in the office. However, remote workers also report feeling less connected to their colleagues. Which of the following interpretations is BEST supported by the passage?

Companies should require all employees to work remotely full-time.
There is a trade-off between job satisfaction and social connection in remote work arrangements. (Correct answer)
Office workers are generally unhappy with their jobs.
Remote work improves all aspects of employee well-being.

Correct answer: There is a trade-off between job satisfaction and social connection in remote work arrangements.

The passage explicitly states remote workers have higher satisfaction but feel less connected, indicating a trade-off between these two factors.

Question 46: A researcher finds that countries with higher chocolate consumption win more Nobel Prizes per capita. What is the correct interpretation?

This is likely a spurious correlation driven by overall national wealth (Correct answer)
Countries should increase chocolate consumption to win more prizes
Nobel Prize committees favor chocolate-consuming nations
Chocolate consumption enhances cognitive performance

Correct answer: This is likely a spurious correlation driven by overall national wealth

Wealthier nations tend to both consume more chocolate and invest more in education and research, making national wealth the underlying confounder.

Question 47: A pharmaceutical company reports that Drug X reduced symptoms in 60% of patients during clinical trials, compared to 45% for the placebo group. What is the strongest conclusion?

Drug X is a miracle cure that works for everyone
All patients should immediately switch to Drug X
Drug X showed a statistically meaningful improvement over placebo in symptom reduction (Correct answer)
The placebo effect does not exist

Correct answer: Drug X showed a statistically meaningful improvement over placebo in symptom reduction

The 15-percentage-point difference over placebo suggests the drug has a genuine therapeutic effect beyond placebo response.

Question 48: A financial news headline reads: 'Tech giant reports 40% year-on-year profit increase.' Which of the following is an inference?

The tech giant's business performance improved significantly over the past year. (Correct answer)
The tech giant's financial statement reflects a 40% profit increase.
The tech giant's profit increased by 40% compared to the previous year.
Profit growth of 40% was reported by the tech giant.

Correct answer: The tech giant's business performance improved significantly over the past year.

Saying performance 'improved significantly' adds an interpretive judgment — 'significantly' is a qualitative assessment not contained in the bare 40% figure.

Question 49: Market data shows that a new product's sales tripled in regions where celebrity endorsements were used, but customer return rates in those regions were twice the national average. What conclusion is most warranted?

Celebrity endorsements are fraudulent and should be banned
Celebrity endorsements effectively drive initial purchases but may create expectations that lead to higher dissatisfaction (Correct answer)
The product is defective only in regions with celebrity endorsements
Return rates are irrelevant to evaluating marketing effectiveness

Correct answer: Celebrity endorsements effectively drive initial purchases but may create expectations that lead to higher dissatisfaction

The endorsements boosted sales but the elevated return rate suggests customers' expectations may not have matched the actual product experience.

Question 50: Statement: Every doctor who graduated from Westfield Medical School between 2010 and 2020 passed their board certification on the first attempt. Dr. Chen graduated from Westfield Medical School in 2015. Conclusion: Dr. Chen passed board certification on the first attempt. This conclusion is:

False
True (Correct answer)
Probably True
Insufficient Data

Correct answer: True

Dr. Chen falls within the specified graduating cohort, and the statement covers all doctors in that cohort without exception.

Question 51: Statement: 'Should the US eliminate daylight saving time?' Argument: 'No, because farmers in the Midwest prefer the current schedule.' Is this argument strong or weak?

Weak, because farmers represent a small portion of the US population
Weak, because one group's preference is insufficient justification for a national policy (Correct answer)
Strong, because rural economies depend on consistent schedules
Strong, because agricultural communities are significantly affected by time changes

Correct answer: Weak, because one group's preference is insufficient justification for a national policy

The argument is weak because the preference of a single interest group does not constitute a broadly relevant reason to maintain a national time policy.

Question 52: A city implemented a new public transit system last year. Since then, traffic congestion during rush hours has decreased by 15%. What is the probability of the inference: The new transit system is responsible for the reduction in traffic congestion.

Probably True (Correct answer)
Insufficient Data
True
Probably False

Correct answer: Probably True

While other factors could contribute, the timing and magnitude of the decrease make it probably true that the new transit system played a significant role in reducing congestion.

Question 53: Passage: Studies show that children who ate breakfast daily scored an average of 11 points higher on standardized reading tests than children who frequently skipped breakfast. Which conclusion follows most directly?

Schools should replace reading instruction time with meal programs.
Reading skills determine whether a child eats breakfast.
Skipping breakfast permanently damages a child's reading ability.
Daily breakfast is associated with better reading test performance in children. (Correct answer)

Correct answer: Daily breakfast is associated with better reading test performance in children.

The study data supports an association, but does not establish causation or indicate that reading drives breakfast habits.

Question 54: An editorial argues: 'Since Country X banned single-use plastics, ocean pollution near its coast dropped by 25%. Therefore, all countries should ban single-use plastics to reduce ocean pollution.' Which assumption is most critical to this argument?

The factors contributing to ocean pollution near Country X are similar to those in other countries (Correct answer)
Ocean pollution is the most pressing environmental issue globally
Banning single-use plastics is economically feasible for all countries
Country X has a longer coastline than most countries

Correct answer: The factors contributing to ocean pollution near Country X are similar to those in other countries

The argument only works if other countries share similar pollution sources, making the same intervention likely to produce similar results.

Question 55: Argument: 'Professor Chen argues that economic growth doesn't reduce inequality, but she's from a communist country, so her analysis can't be trusted.' What fallacy is this?

Straw man — misrepresenting her economic position.
Ad hominem (circumstantial) — attacking the professor's background to dismiss her argument rather than addressing its substance. (Correct answer)
Appeal to authority — incorrectly using Professor Chen's credentials.
Post hoc — her country's communism preceded her research, so it caused her bias.

Correct answer: Ad hominem (circumstantial) — attacking the professor's background to dismiss her argument rather than addressing its substance.

Attacking her national background rather than her methodology or data commits ad hominem — the validity of her research depends on its empirical merits, not her country of origin.

Question 56: Statement: 'We shouldn't take Dr. Lee's research on climate change seriously — she drives a large SUV.' What fallacy is this?

Appeal to authority — Dr. Lee's credentials are being misused.
Hasty generalization — one researcher with an SUV represents all climate scientists.
Slippery slope — Dr. Lee's SUV will lead to further environmental damage.
Tu quoque (appeal to hypocrisy) — attacking the person's behavior to discredit their argument. (Correct answer)

Correct answer: Tu quoque (appeal to hypocrisy) — attacking the person's behavior to discredit their argument.

Tu quoque dismisses an argument by pointing to the speaker's allegedly hypocritical behavior, rather than addressing the substance of the research.

Question 57: Research shows that children who eat breakfast perform better academically. A school policy maker concludes that providing free breakfasts will improve all students' grades. Which conclusion is best supported?

Providing breakfasts may help students who previously skipped breakfast but may not affect those who already ate. (Correct answer)
Academic performance is unrelated to nutrition, so the policy will have no effect.
The research proves that breakfast is the only factor affecting academic performance.
Free breakfasts will definitely raise every student's grades by improving nutrition.

Correct answer: Providing breakfasts may help students who previously skipped breakfast but may not affect those who already ate.

The benefit of breakfast likely applies mainly to students who were skipping it; those who already ate breakfast are unlikely to show additional gains.

Question 58: Crime statistics show that a city's violent crime rate dropped by 20% in the year after increasing the number of streetlights. What is an unwarranted interpretation?

The data records a 20% reduction in violent crime alongside a streetlight increase.
There may be other factors that contributed to the decline in violent crime.
The violent crime rate decreased by 20% in the year following the streetlight expansion.
Streetlights are the proven cause of the 20% drop in violent crime. (Correct answer)

Correct answer: Streetlights are the proven cause of the 20% drop in violent crime.

Claiming streetlights are the 'proven cause' oversteps the evidence, which only shows a temporal correlation.

Question 59: A bar chart shows that Product A outsold Product B in Q1 and Q2 but the chart's y-axis starts at 50,000 units rather than zero. What is the most important interpretive caution?

The visual gap exaggerates the actual difference in sales (Correct answer)
Starting axes above zero is always fraudulent
Product B is about to overtake Product A
The products are incomparable

Correct answer: The visual gap exaggerates the actual difference in sales

A truncated y-axis makes small absolute differences appear much larger than they are.

Question 60: Passage: A nonprofit that added peer-mentoring programs to its after-school curriculum saw dropout rates fall from 18% to 7% over three years. A comparable program without peer mentoring held steady at 17%. What does this evidence most strongly suggest?

Peer mentoring may have played a role in reducing dropout rates at this nonprofit. (Correct answer)
Dropout rates will always fall once peer mentoring is introduced.
Peer mentoring is the sole reason students stay in school nationwide.
The comparison program had poorly trained staff.

Correct answer: Peer mentoring may have played a role in reducing dropout rates at this nonprofit.

The controlled comparison supports a likely role for peer mentoring, but the word 'sole' or 'always' overstates what one case study shows.

Question 61: An online retailer found that customers who use their mobile app spend an average of $120 per month, while website-only customers spend $85 per month. The company concluded that the app drives higher spending. Which inference represents the STRONGEST challenge to this conclusion?

Mobile apps are always more user-friendly than websites
Website customers probably have lower incomes
The $35 difference is too small to be meaningful
Customers who download a shopping app may already be more engaged and likely to spend more (Correct answer)

Correct answer: Customers who download a shopping app may already be more engaged and likely to spend more

Customers who take the extra step of downloading an app may already be more committed shoppers, meaning the app may not cause higher spending but instead attract those who already spend more.

Question 62: A transport company reports that introducing GPS tracking reduced delivery times by 15%. Management concludes that GPS tracking caused the improvement. Which is the most valid criticism of this conclusion?

GPS tracking is too expensive for most companies.
A 15% improvement is too small to justify the investment.
Delivery times are not an important metric for transport companies.
Drivers may have improved performance simply because they knew they were being monitored (Hawthorne effect). (Correct answer)

Correct answer: Drivers may have improved performance simply because they knew they were being monitored (Hawthorne effect).

The Hawthorne effect describes how people change their behavior when they know they are being observed, which could explain the improvement independent of GPS tracking's direct benefits.

Question 63: A study found that employees who participate in regular team-building exercises report higher job satisfaction. Based on this information, what is the probability of the following inference: Team-building exercises directly cause increased job satisfaction.

Probably False
Insufficient Data (Correct answer)
Probably True
True

Correct answer: Insufficient Data

The study shows a correlation between team-building and satisfaction, but other factors such as workplace culture or management style could also contribute, making the causal claim unsupported by the data alone.

Question 64: A school district report states that after switching from traditional textbooks to tablet-based learning in grades 6-8, math scores improved by 11% while reading scores declined by 3%. Teacher turnover in those grades increased by 20% during the same period. Which of the following can be VALIDLY interpreted from this information?

Tablet-based learning is superior to traditional textbooks for all subjects.
The switch to tablets produced mixed academic results and coincided with higher teacher turnover. (Correct answer)
Teacher turnover increased because teachers opposed tablet-based learning.
Reading scores declined because students spent too much time on math apps.

Correct answer: The switch to tablets produced mixed academic results and coincided with higher teacher turnover.

The data shows math scores improved, reading scores declined, and teacher turnover rose during the same period, making the mixed-results interpretation the only one directly supported.

Question 65: A health magazine claims a specific berry improves memory, citing 'recent research.' Which question is MOST important for assessing this claim's credibility?

What is the berry's nutritional profile?
Has the magazine published similar health claims before?
How widely available is the berry in supermarkets?
Was the research peer-reviewed, and what was the sample size? (Correct answer)

Correct answer: Was the research peer-reviewed, and what was the sample size?

Vague references to 'recent research' without details about peer review or study scale are a credibility red flag. Peer review establishes that independent experts evaluated the methodology, and sample size affects whether conclusions can be generalized.

Question 66: A graph shows violent crime falling every year for a decade. A politician says 'our new policing program, launched 2 years ago, is working.' What is the key interpretive issue?

Violent crime always falls over time
Crime statistics are inherently unreliable
Crime was already declining before the program started, so attributing the trend to the program is premature (Correct answer)
The program should be expanded based on this evidence

Correct answer: Crime was already declining before the program started, so attributing the trend to the program is premature

The pre-existing downward trend existed before the intervention, making it impossible to credit the program without isolating its specific effect.

Question 67: Which of the following best represents a necessary condition for establishing a causal relationship between A and B?

A must be the only factor present when B occurs.
A and B must occur simultaneously in every observed case.
A must precede B in time, they must be correlated, and alternative explanations must be ruled out. (Correct answer)
B must never occur without A occurring first.

Correct answer: A must precede B in time, they must be correlated, and alternative explanations must be ruled out.

The standard criteria for causation include temporal precedence, covariation, and elimination of competing explanations.

Question 68: Passage: An analysis of 200 small businesses found that those offering employee health benefits had an average annual revenue growth of 9%, compared to 4% for businesses without such benefits. Which conclusion is most justified by this data?

Revenue growth is the primary reason employees value health benefits.
Offering health benefits is associated with higher revenue growth among these businesses. (Correct answer)
All small businesses must offer health benefits to survive.
Health benefits directly cause businesses to earn more revenue.

Correct answer: Offering health benefits is associated with higher revenue growth among these businesses.

The data shows a correlation between benefits and growth in this sample; it does not establish causality or universal application.

Question 69: Passage: Data from ten urban school districts shows that districts spending more than $12,000 per pupil annually had graduation rates averaging 89%, while districts spending less averaged 74%. Which conclusion is best supported?

Districts spending less are deliberately trying to lower graduation rates.
Money is the only factor that determines whether students graduate.
Graduation rates will reach 100% if spending is increased sufficiently.
Higher per-pupil spending is associated with higher graduation rates in these districts. (Correct answer)

Correct answer: Higher per-pupil spending is associated with higher graduation rates in these districts.

The data shows a pattern between spending and graduation rates without attributing sole causation or predicting unlimited improvement.

Question 70: Data shows that students who own more books score higher on reading tests. What additional evidence would best establish a causal link?

Testimonials from students who own many books
A controlled experiment where books are randomly assigned to students and reading scores are tracked (Correct answer)
National averages of book ownership
Teacher reports about student reading habits

Correct answer: A controlled experiment where books are randomly assigned to students and reading scores are tracked

Randomized controlled experiments are the gold standard for establishing causation because they control for confounding variables.

Question 71: Argument: 'If this medicine were truly ineffective, pharmaceutical companies wouldn't be selling it. Since they are selling it, it must work.' What type of fallacy is this?

Appeal to authority — pharmaceutical companies are treated as authorities on effectiveness.
Post hoc — the medicine was sold before claims of effectiveness were made.
False dilemma — either the medicine works or companies wouldn't sell it.
Circular reasoning — the argument assumes what it tries to prove. (Correct answer)

Correct answer: Circular reasoning — the argument assumes what it tries to prove.

The argument assumes that commercial availability proves effectiveness, but this is circular — it assumes pharmaceutical companies only sell effective products, which is the very claim being evaluated.

Question 72: Statement: 'Should prisons focus more on rehabilitation than punishment?' Argument: 'Yes, because recidivism rates are lower among individuals who receive education and vocational training while incarcerated.' Is this argument strong or weak?

Strong, because prisoners deserve better treatment
Weak, because rehabilitation programs are costly
Strong, because it provides direct empirical support for the effectiveness of the proposed approach (Correct answer)
Weak, because punishment has served as a deterrent for centuries

Correct answer: Strong, because it provides direct empirical support for the effectiveness of the proposed approach

The argument is strong because it cites outcome data directly relevant to the core objective of reducing repeat offenses.

Question 73: Two variables, X and Y, have a correlation of 0.90. A critical thinker should conclude:

Y causes X with 90% certainty.
X and Y are identical measures.
X causes Y with 90% certainty.
X and Y are strongly related, but causation requires further evidence. (Correct answer)

Correct answer: X and Y are strongly related, but causation requires further evidence.

A high correlation indicates a strong association but does not identify which variable causes the other, if either does.

Question 74: A report states that School X's test scores improved 20 points after adopting a new curriculum. However, 30% of the lowest-scoring students transferred out that year. What does this suggest?

The curriculum should be adopted nationwide
The score increase may be partly or entirely explained by a change in the student population, not the curriculum (Correct answer)
Transferring students always improves scores
The curriculum is highly effective

Correct answer: The score increase may be partly or entirely explained by a change in the student population, not the curriculum

When lower-performing students leave a group, average scores rise mechanically — this is sometimes called compositional change or a selection effect.

Question 75: Question: 'Should cities ban single-use plastic bags?' Argument: 'Plastic bags cause significant marine pollution, harming ocean ecosystems and wildlife.' Is this argument strong and relevant?

No — marine pollution only affects wildlife, not humans, so it is irrelevant to city policy.
Yes — marine pollution from plastic bags is directly relevant to the environmental harm the ban aims to prevent. (Correct answer)
No — a city ban cannot solve global ocean pollution.
Yes — but only if the city is located near the ocean.

Correct answer: Yes — marine pollution from plastic bags is directly relevant to the environmental harm the ban aims to prevent.

Marine pollution is a direct environmental consequence of single-use plastic bags — it is highly relevant to whether the policy is justified on environmental grounds.

Question 76: An economist writes: 'Unemployment in Region Y fell from 9.1% to 5.3% over three years following the construction of a new manufacturing plant that employs 2,000 workers. The region's total workforce is 80,000.' Which interpretation is LEAST supported by the passage?

The manufacturing plant contributed to reducing unemployment in Region Y.
Unemployment in Region Y decreased significantly over the three-year period.
The manufacturing plant was the sole reason unemployment declined in Region Y. (Correct answer)
The new plant employs approximately 2.5% of the region's total workforce.

Correct answer: The manufacturing plant was the sole reason unemployment declined in Region Y.

The plant employs only 2,000 of 80,000 workers (2.5%), but unemployment dropped by 3.8 percentage points (about 3,040 jobs), so other factors must have also contributed.

Question 77: Statement: A city park reported a 40% increase in visitors after installing new playground equipment. Inference: The new playground equipment caused the increase in park visitors. How should this inference be rated?

Probably True (Correct answer)
Probably False
Insufficient Data
True

Correct answer: Probably True

The inference is probably true because the timing suggests a causal link, though other factors (weather, events) cannot be fully ruled out.

Question 78: A city that banned smoking in all public indoor spaces saw its lung cancer diagnosis rate fall by 25% over the following decade. What is the probability of the following inference: The public smoking ban directly caused the decline in lung cancer rates.

Probably false — ten years is far too short a time frame for a smoking ban to influence cancer diagnoses
Definitely true — the timing of the decline after the ban confirms a direct causal relationship
Probably true — the temporal correlation and biological plausibility support the link, though other factors may have contributed (Correct answer)
Definitely false — lung cancer rates are determined entirely by individual genetics, not environmental policy

Correct answer: Probably true — the temporal correlation and biological plausibility support the link, though other factors may have contributed

The temporal sequence and well-established biology (reduced smoke exposure → reduced cancer risk) make the inference probably true, but advances in early detection, concurrent anti-smoking campaigns, or demographic shifts could also partly explain the decline, preventing a 'definitely true' rating.

Question 79: Premises: 'No country that has signed Treaty X imposes export tariffs on Treaty X members. Ruritania has signed Treaty X. Waldoria is a member of Treaty X.' What necessarily follows?

Ruritania does not impose export tariffs on Waldoria. (Correct answer)
Waldoria has also signed Treaty X.
Ruritania and Waldoria have a free trade agreement.
Waldoria imposes export tariffs on Ruritania.

Correct answer: Ruritania does not impose export tariffs on Waldoria.

Ruritania signed Treaty X (so it cannot impose export tariffs on Treaty X members) and Waldoria is a Treaty X member — therefore Ruritania cannot impose export tariffs on Waldoria.

Question 80: A school district adopted a new math curriculum and found that average standardized test scores rose by 8 points over two years, while a neighboring district using the old curriculum saw scores rise by 3 points. What is the most reasonable conclusion?

All school districts should replace their math curricula immediately.
The new curriculum is the only factor that improved test scores in the first district.
Students in the district with the new curriculum outperformed their starting baseline by a greater margin than the comparison district. (Correct answer)
The old curriculum actively harms student learning in math.

Correct answer: Students in the district with the new curriculum outperformed their starting baseline by a greater margin than the comparison district.

The data supports comparing relative improvement between the two districts. It cannot isolate the curriculum as the only variable, condemn the old curriculum, or justify a universal recommendation.

Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal

The Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal exam validates essential knowledge and skills required for certification or licensure in this field.

Questions

60 min

Time Limit

65%

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Sources & references

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