Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal — Questions and Answers

Question 1: A restaurant received three consecutive one-star reviews this week. Inference: The restaurant's food quality has declined.

Probably True
Insufficient Data (Correct answer)
True
Probably False

Correct answer: Insufficient Data

The reviews may reflect service, pricing, or atmosphere issues, and we have no direct evidence about food quality specifically.

Question 2: No parking violations were recorded in District Z last month. Inference: Residents of District Z always follow parking rules.

True
Probably True
Insufficient Data (Correct answer)
Probably False

Correct answer: Insufficient Data

One month without recorded violations could reflect better enforcement or lower traffic volume, not a permanent behavioral pattern.

Question 3: Statement: 'The defendant must be guilty; three witnesses saw him at the scene.' Proposed assumption: Eyewitness testimony is always reliable. Is this assumption MADE or NOT MADE?

Not Made
Made (Correct answer)
Cannot Determine
Partially Made

Correct answer: Made

The assumption IS made because concluding guilt solely from witness accounts assumes those accounts are reliable enough to establish guilt.

Question 4: Statement: 'Should employers be prohibited from asking about salary history during hiring?' Argument: 'Yes, because salary history perpetuates pay gaps by anchoring new offers to previously lower wages earned due to discrimination.' Is this argument strong or weak?

Strong, because it directly identifies a mechanism by which the practice causes measurable harm (Correct answer)
Strong, but only in industries with documented pay disparities
Weak, because wage gaps are caused by many other factors
Weak, because salary history is standard business practice

Correct answer: Strong, because it directly identifies a mechanism by which the practice causes measurable harm

The argument is strong because it explains a specific, causal mechanism linking salary history inquiries to perpetuating pay inequality.

Question 5: Statement: 'Switching to LED lighting will save the company money.' Proposed assumption: 'The company currently uses a less energy-efficient lighting system.' Is this assumption made?

LED efficiency is a known fact, not an assumption
Assumption made (Correct answer)
The savings are calculated in the statement
Assumption not made

Correct answer: Assumption made

Savings from switching to LEDs presupposes the company is currently using a more costly alternative.

Question 6: A company defends its labor practices by saying: 'Our overseas workers are paid fairly — they earn more than the average wage in their home country.' Which fallacy may be operating here?

Red herring
Equivocation
False dilemma
Relative privation (Correct answer)

Correct answer: Relative privation

Relative privation (also called 'appeal to worse problems') dismisses a concern by comparing it to a worse situation rather than addressing it on its merits.

Question 7: Statement: 'Should the government fund free mental health clinics in low-income neighborhoods?' Argument: 'Yes, because mental illness rates are higher in low-income areas but access to care is disproportionately lower.' Is this argument strong or weak?

Weak, because mental health is a private matter
Weak, because free clinics might reduce quality of care
Strong, because it directly identifies the disparity the policy is designed to correct (Correct answer)
Strong, because government should fund all medical services

Correct answer: Strong, because it directly identifies the disparity the policy is designed to correct

The argument is strong because it presents a direct, data-grounded reason that justifies targeting this specific population.

Question 8: Passage: Cities with more green spaces report higher average resident happiness scores. Conclusion: Adding green spaces will increase resident happiness in any city. What is the status of this conclusion?

True beyond reasonable doubt
Insufficient data
Probably true (Correct answer)
Probably false

Correct answer: Probably true

A consistent cross-city association between green spaces and happiness makes a probable causal benefit reasonable, though local factors could vary.

Question 9: Statement: 'Since Nina speaks three languages, she will be an asset on our international team.' Proposed assumption: 'Speaking multiple languages is useful for international team tasks.' Is this assumption made?

Assumption not made
Language ability is irrelevant to the conclusion
The assumption is that Nina is experienced, not multilingual
Assumption made (Correct answer)

Correct answer: Assumption made

Calling Nina an asset because she speaks three languages assumes that multilingualism is valuable for the international team's work.

Question 10: Statement: If productivity increases, the company meets its quarterly targets. The company did not meet its quarterly targets. Conclusion: Productivity did not increase.

The conclusion does not follow
The conclusion is ambiguous
The conclusion is an assumption
The conclusion follows by modus tollens (Correct answer)

Correct answer: The conclusion follows by modus tollens

By modus tollens (denying the consequent), if targets not met then productivity did not increase.

Question 11: Passage: An analysis of 200 small businesses found that those offering employee health benefits had an average annual revenue growth of 9%, compared to 4% for businesses without such benefits. Which conclusion is most justified by this data?

All small businesses must offer health benefits to survive.
Revenue growth is the primary reason employees value health benefits.
Health benefits directly cause businesses to earn more revenue.
Offering health benefits is associated with higher revenue growth among these businesses. (Correct answer)

Correct answer: Offering health benefits is associated with higher revenue growth among these businesses.

The data shows a correlation between benefits and growth in this sample; it does not establish causality or universal application.

Question 12: Passage: 'A hospital with a new electronic records system reported a 15% reduction in medication errors over one year.' Which interpretation is best supported?

All hospitals should immediately replace paper records with electronic systems.
The hospital's medication error rate fell by 15% in the year after implementing the system. (Correct answer)
Electronic records systems always reduce medication errors by at least 15%.
The electronic system is the sole reason for the error reduction.

Correct answer: The hospital's medication error rate fell by 15% in the year after implementing the system.

The data confirms the reduction happened in that time period at that hospital, without establishing sole causation or universal applicability.

Question 13: A study shows that countries with higher chocolate consumption have more Nobel Prize winners. A biased conclusion from this data would be:

This correlation may be explained by a third variable like national wealth
Further research is needed to understand this relationship
Chocolate consumption correlates with Nobel Prize rates in the dataset
Eating chocolate causes higher intelligence and Nobel Prize wins (Correct answer)

Correct answer: Eating chocolate causes higher intelligence and Nobel Prize wins

Concluding causation from correlation is a common bias; correlation alone cannot establish that chocolate consumption causes Nobel Prize wins.

Question 14: A region that banned single-use plastics saw ocean plastic debris decrease by 40% over three years. Activists claim the ban caused the reduction. Which inference is best? A) Probably true — the ban is the most direct explanation for the debris drop. B) Certainly true — a 40% drop proves the ban worked. C) Insufficient data — regional ocean currents and global plastic trends must also be examined. D) Probably false — plastic bans rarely have measurable environmental effects.

Probably true — the ban is the most direct explanation for the debris drop.
Certainly true — a 40% drop proves the ban worked.
Probably false — plastic bans rarely have measurable environmental effects.
Insufficient data — regional ocean currents and global plastic trends must also be examined. (Correct answer)

Correct answer: Insufficient data — regional ocean currents and global plastic trends must also be examined.

Without data on regional currents, neighboring regions' plastic output, and global trends, the debris reduction cannot be attributed solely to the local ban.

Question 15: The cafeteria serves vegetarian meals every Monday and Wednesday. Today is Thursday. Inference: Vegetarian meals are not being served today.

True
Probably False
Insufficient Data (Correct answer)
Probably True

Correct answer: Insufficient Data

The passage states when vegetarian meals are definitely available but never states they are unavailable on other days.

Question 16: Passage: Cities with more green spaces report lower average stress levels among residents. Which interpretation is best?

There is a correlation between green space availability and lower reported stress (Correct answer)
Building parks will eliminate urban stress
Green spaces are the leading cause of lower urban stress
Residents of cities without parks are universally highly stressed

Correct answer: There is a correlation between green space availability and lower reported stress

The passage reports an association between green spaces and stress levels; claiming causation or universal effects goes beyond the stated evidence.

Question 17: A dataset shows that countries with higher chocolate consumption win more Nobel Prizes per capita. The best interpretation is:

Both variables correlate with a third factor, such as national wealth or research investment (Correct answer)
The data proves chocolate should be subsidized for scientists
Chocolate boosts cognitive performance needed for Nobel-level work
Nobel Prize committees favor chocolate-eating nations

Correct answer: Both variables correlate with a third factor, such as national wealth or research investment

Wealthier nations tend to both consume more chocolate and invest more in scientific research, making wealth the likely confounding variable.

Question 18: A study finds that people who own pets report higher happiness scores. The researcher concludes that owning a pet causes happiness. Which error is present?

Selection bias
Anchoring bias
Confusing correlation with causation (Correct answer)
Confirmation bias

Correct answer: Confusing correlation with causation

Correlation shows that two variables move together but does not establish that one causes the other; a third variable or reverse causation could explain the relationship.

Question 19: Statement: 'Should the US government provide free internet access to all households?' Argument: 'Yes, because in the modern economy, internet access is increasingly necessary for job searching, remote work, education, and civic participation.' Is this argument strong or weak?

Strong, because internet access is a luxury that should be shared
Weak, because not everyone wants to use the internet
Weak, because internet service providers would lose revenue
Strong, because it identifies multiple direct ways internet access has become essential to economic and civic life (Correct answer)

Correct answer: Strong, because it identifies multiple direct ways internet access has become essential to economic and civic life

The argument is strong because it provides several concrete, relevant ways that internet access has become a functional necessity in modern society.

Question 20: A hospital replaced paper-based outpatient check-in with an electronic system. Average wait times fell from 45 minutes to 28 minutes, and patient satisfaction scores rose from 72% to 81%. Which inference is MOST reasonable?

Patients value speed of check-in more than the quality of medical treatment they receive
The reduction in wait times likely contributed to the improvement in patient satisfaction scores (Correct answer)
Electronic check-in systems universally improve patient satisfaction in any hospital setting
The hospital's clinical staff became more skilled after the new check-in system was introduced

Correct answer: The reduction in wait times likely contributed to the improvement in patient satisfaction scores

Both changes occurred together, making it reasonable to infer a connection between shorter waits and higher satisfaction. Option A generalizes beyond this single case; Option C attributes a change in clinical skill with no supporting evidence; Option D makes a value-priority claim the data does not address.

Question 21: Data shows that people who sleep fewer than 6 hours per night score lower on memory tests. Which interpretation goes beyond the evidence?

There is a relationship between sleep duration and memory test performance.
The dataset includes a correlation between sleep and memory scores.
Sleeping less than 6 hours causes permanent memory damage. (Correct answer)
People who sleep less tend to score lower on memory tests.

Correct answer: Sleeping less than 6 hours causes permanent memory damage.

'Permanent memory damage' is a far stronger claim than the data about test scores supports.

Question 22: A company proposes to cut costs by outsourcing its customer service department to a third-party firm overseas. The stated goals are to reduce operational expenses and maintain the current level of customer satisfaction. Which argument is the WEAKEST and least relevant?

"A recent survey of our customers revealed that 85% prefer to speak with a customer service agent based in their own country."
"The CEO of our main competitor said in an interview that he would never consider outsourcing because it's unpatriotic." (Correct answer)
"An internal analysis shows that outsourcing would reduce departmental costs by 40% within the first year."
"The third-party firm has a 92% customer satisfaction rating with its other clients in our industry."

Correct answer: "The CEO of our main competitor said in an interview that he would never consider outsourcing because it's unpatriotic."

This argument is weak because it relies on the opinion of an external party (a competitor's CEO) and appeals to emotion ('unpatriotic') rather than providing data relevant to the company's specific goals of cost reduction and customer satisfaction. The other arguments are all strong and directly relevant as they provide data on cost savings, customer preferences, and the potential partner's performance.

Question 23: Statement: 'If you want to save money on groceries, shop at discount stores.' Proposed assumption: Discount stores sell the same quality of groceries as regular stores. Is this assumption MADE or NOT MADE?

Made
Cannot Determine
Not Made (Correct answer)
Partially Made

Correct answer: Not Made

The assumption is NOT made; the advice only assumes discount stores offer lower prices, not necessarily equivalent quality.

Question 24: Which of the following statements best exemplifies a "False Dilemma" fallacy?

"Our sales have increased every month since we hired the new marketing director, so she is clearly the cause of our success."
"Every successful tech company has an open-office floor plan; therefore, we must adopt one to be successful."
"If we don't approve this new security software immediately, our company will inevitably suffer a catastrophic data breach." (Correct answer)
"The new CEO is a poor public speaker, so his business strategy must be flawed."

Correct answer: "If we don't approve this new security software immediately, our company will inevitably suffer a catastrophic data breach."

This statement presents only two extreme outcomes (approve the software or face catastrophe) and ignores other possibilities, such as implementing alternative security measures, phasing in the software, or the possibility that a breach is not inevitable. This is a classic "either/or" fallacy.

Question 25: In Watson-Glaser critical thinking, recognizing bias is most directly related to which foundational skill?

Identifying assumptions that underlie arguments (Correct answer)
Performing mathematical calculations
Demonstrating verbal fluency
Recalling memorized facts accurately

Correct answer: Identifying assumptions that underlie arguments

Bias in reasoning often operates through hidden assumptions; identifying those assumptions is key to recognizing and countering bias.

Question 26: Premise: All students who pass the entrance exam are admitted. Premise: Sofia did not pass the entrance exam. Conclusion: Sofia was not admitted. Is this conclusion valid?

The conclusion does not follow — the exam is optional.
The conclusion follows only if Sofia applied during the current cycle.
The conclusion does not follow — Sofia could have been admitted through another route. (Correct answer)
The conclusion follows — failing the exam means rejection.

Correct answer: The conclusion does not follow — Sofia could have been admitted through another route.

The premise states passing guarantees admission, but does not state that passing is the only path to admission, so Sofia may still have been admitted another way.

Question 27: Premise: All fruit in this basket is either an apple or an orange. Premise: This item from the basket is not an apple. Conclusion: This item is an orange. Is this conclusion valid?

The conclusion does not follow — there may be other fruit not mentioned.
The conclusion does not follow — the item could be neither.
The conclusion follows only if the item was randomly selected.
The conclusion follows — if it is not an apple and only apples and oranges are present, it must be an orange. (Correct answer)

Correct answer: The conclusion follows — if it is not an apple and only apples and oranges are present, it must be an orange.

The basket contains only apples and oranges; since the item is not an apple, it must be an orange.

Question 28: A municipal government planted 1,200 additional trees along residential streets over two years. A follow-up study found that summer surface temperatures in those neighborhoods dropped by an average of 2°C compared to similar neighborhoods without new plantings. Researchers noted that wealthier neighborhoods received more trees. Which interpretation is NOT justified by the passage?

Planting trees is the most cost-effective strategy a city can use to reduce urban heat. (Correct answer)
The tree-planting program may have delivered unequal benefits across income levels.
Surface temperatures were lower in neighborhoods that received new trees than in comparable neighborhoods that did not.
The data suggest a link between increased urban tree coverage and reduced surface temperatures.

Correct answer: Planting trees is the most cost-effective strategy a city can use to reduce urban heat.

Options A, B, and D are each directly supported by the passage: A restates the temperature finding, B is supported by the note about wealthier neighborhoods receiving more trees, and D draws a reasonable inferential link. Option C introduces a cost-effectiveness comparison that the passage never makes — no cost data are provided and no alternative strategies are evaluated, making this claim unjustified.

Question 29: Passage: Riverdale's public library saw a 35% increase in visitors after extending its hours. The mayor claims the extended hours are responsible. What additional information would most strengthen this inference? A) The library also purchased new books during that period. B) Visitor counts at other city libraries without extended hours remained flat. C) The library hired additional staff when hours were extended. D) Library funding increased the same year.

Library funding increased the same year.
The library also purchased new books during that period.
Visitor counts at other city libraries without extended hours remained flat. (Correct answer)
The library hired additional staff when hours were extended.

Correct answer: Visitor counts at other city libraries without extended hours remained flat.

Showing that comparable libraries without the hour extension did not see a visitor increase isolates extended hours as the likely cause.

Question 30: In the Watson-Glaser framework, which of the following best defines a 'fact' in the context of distinguishing facts from inferences? A) Any statement that most people agree with. B) A statement that can be directly verified against given or observable information without added interpretation. C) A conclusion drawn logically from available evidence. D) A statement made by an authority figure or expert.

Any statement that most people agree with.
A statement made by an authority figure or expert.
A statement that can be directly verified against given or observable information without added interpretation. (Correct answer)
A conclusion drawn logically from available evidence.

Correct answer: A statement that can be directly verified against given or observable information without added interpretation.

In Watson-Glaser terms, a fact is a statement verifiable from given or directly observable information, requiring no added interpretation or reasoning.

Question 31: A new medicine showed a 40% improvement rate versus 25% for placebo in a 500-patient trial. Inference: The medicine is effective.

Probably True (Correct answer)
Insufficient Data
True
Probably False

Correct answer: Probably True

A meaningfully higher rate than placebo in a substantial sample suggests probable effectiveness, though additional trials would be needed for certainty.

Question 32: Argument: 'The unemployment rate fell last month, which shows that the government's economic stimulus package is working.' What is the key unstated assumption?

The unemployment rate is the most reliable measure of economic health.
The government publicly announced the stimulus package last month.
Unemployment rates are calculated by an independent agency.
The stimulus package is the primary reason for the fall in unemployment rather than other economic factors. (Correct answer)

Correct answer: The stimulus package is the primary reason for the fall in unemployment rather than other economic factors.

The argument assumes the stimulus is what caused unemployment to fall, ignoring seasonal factors, industry-specific hiring cycles, or global economic trends that may have independently reduced unemployment.

Question 33: Statement: In a controlled study, 100 tomato plants were divided into two groups. Group A was grown with a new liquid fertilizer, while Group B was grown with only water. All other conditions (sunlight, soil, temperature) were identical. After 12 weeks, the average plant in Group A was 30% taller and produced 40% more fruit than the average plant in Group B. Inference: The new liquid fertilizer is effective at improving tomato plant growth and yield under the tested conditions.

The inference is probably true. (Correct answer)
There is insufficient data to make a determination.
The inference is definitely false.
The inference is definitely true.

Correct answer: The inference is probably true.

The inference is 'Probably True'. The experiment was well-controlled, isolating the fertilizer as the key variable. The significant positive results in Group A strongly support the conclusion that the fertilizer is effective. It is not 'Definitely True' because in scientific contexts, a single study provides strong evidence but not absolute certainty; results typically need to be replicated. However, based solely on the information provided, the inference is highly probable.

Question 34: A study concludes that people who exercise regularly are more successful in their careers, based on a survey of 40 professional athletes. Which flaw most weakens this conclusion?

Selection bias (Correct answer)
Anchoring bias
Framing effect
Hindsight bias

Correct answer: Selection bias

Surveying only professional athletes is a non-representative sample; the group is not comparable to the general working population.

Question 35: Passage: Studies show that children who ate breakfast daily scored an average of 11 points higher on standardized reading tests than children who frequently skipped breakfast. Which conclusion follows most directly?

Daily breakfast is associated with better reading test performance in children. (Correct answer)
Schools should replace reading instruction time with meal programs.
Reading skills determine whether a child eats breakfast.
Skipping breakfast permanently damages a child's reading ability.

Correct answer: Daily breakfast is associated with better reading test performance in children.

The study data supports an association, but does not establish causation or indicate that reading drives breakfast habits.

Question 36: Statement: Since the new CEO took over two years ago, the company's annual revenue has grown by 35%. Employees report higher morale. Inference: The new CEO is responsible for the revenue growth.

True
Insufficient Data (Correct answer)
Probably False
False
Probably True

Correct answer: Insufficient Data

Leadership change coincides with revenue growth and morale improvement, but external market conditions or prior strategic decisions could also explain the results.

Question 37: Statement: 'Let's take the highway — it's always faster.' The hidden assumption is:

The speaker has driven this route before
Highways are safer than side streets
The highway has no tolls
The highway will be faster in this instance (Correct answer)

Correct answer: The highway will be faster in this instance

Saying 'let's take the highway because it's always faster' assumes the highway will indeed be faster on this particular trip.

Question 38: A debate participant says: 'My opponent has been divorced twice, so his views on family policy cannot be trusted.' This is an example of:

Appeal to emotion
Red herring
Genetic fallacy
Ad hominem fallacy (Correct answer)

Correct answer: Ad hominem fallacy

Ad hominem attacks discredit a person's character rather than addressing the actual merits of their argument.

Question 39: A marketing director proposes discontinuing all print advertising and reallocating the funds to digital marketing. Which of the following is the WEAKEST argument to support this proposal?

A recent market research report shows that our target demographic's consumption of print media has declined by 60% over the last five years.
The cost-per-acquisition for customers through digital ads is 40% lower than the cost-per-acquisition through print ads.
Print advertising is an old-fashioned method, and our company needs to be seen as more modern and forward-thinking. (Correct answer)
Our website's analytics show that over 80% of our sales leads in the past year originated from digital channels.

Correct answer: Print advertising is an old-fashioned method, and our company needs to be seen as more modern and forward-thinking.

This is the weakest argument because it is based on a vague appeal to image ('old-fashioned,' 'modern') rather than on concrete data or measurable business outcomes. Strong arguments focus on facts, outcomes, and consequences. The other options provide specific, relevant data on sales leads, cost-effectiveness, and target audience behavior, making them much stronger.

Question 40: Premise: No software that has unpatched vulnerabilities may be deployed to production. Premise: Application Beta has unpatched vulnerabilities. Conclusion: Application Beta may be deployed to production after review. Does the conclusion follow?

Only with management sign-off
No, the conclusion contradicts the premises (Correct answer)
Yes, because reviews override policies
Yes, if the review clears it

Correct answer: No, the conclusion contradicts the premises

The first premise is an absolute prohibition; adding a 'review' step contradicts the stated universal rule.

Question 41: An environmental study reports: 'Particulate matter levels in the city exceed WHO guidelines by 300% on average.' Which is a FACT?

Residents of the city face serious health risks from air pollution.
Particulate matter levels exceed WHO guidelines by 300%. (Correct answer)
The city government is failing in its duty to protect public health.
The city's industrial activity is responsible for the high particulate levels.

Correct answer: Particulate matter levels exceed WHO guidelines by 300%.

The 300% exceedance figure is directly reported in the study — it is a measurable, verifiable data point.

Question 42: A politician argues: 'My opponent has been critical of our national defense budget. Clearly, he doesn't care about protecting American lives.' Which fallacy is present?

Appeal to authority
False dilemma
Slippery slope
Straw man (Correct answer)

Correct answer: Straw man

The straw man fallacy misrepresents the opponent's position — criticizing budget levels is not the same as not caring about national defense.

Question 43: Argument against a proposal: 'We should not switch to renewable energy because it will cost jobs in the coal industry.' According to Watson-Glaser criteria, this argument is:

Strong, because coal is the most reliable energy source
Strong, because job losses are a serious and directly relevant concern (Correct answer)
Weak, because the argument merely appeals to fear
Weak, because cost should not factor into energy decisions

Correct answer: Strong, because job losses are a serious and directly relevant concern

The argument is strong because job losses are a substantial, directly relevant consequence that genuinely bears on the decision to switch energy sources.

Question 44: Argument: 'This book was reviewed positively in a prestigious literary journal, so it will be enjoyable to read.' What unstated assumption is made?

The journal is widely read by the public.
The journal was published recently.
Positive critical reviews reliably predict personal reading enjoyment for individual readers. (Correct answer)
The book was written by an established author.

Correct answer: Positive critical reviews reliably predict personal reading enjoyment for individual readers.

Critical acclaim and personal reading enjoyment are often independent — a book praised for literary innovation may be challenging and not pleasurable for many readers.

Question 45: An analysis of 1,000 car accidents in a metropolitan area found that 68% occurred within 15 miles of the driver's home address. What is the probability of the following inference: Driving close to home is more dangerous than driving in unfamiliar areas.

Probably true — drivers exercise greater caution in unfamiliar areas, making familiar local driving statistically riskier
Definitely false — location relative to home has absolutely no bearing on driving safety outcomes
Definitely true — the statistics confirm that familiarity with local roads causes drivers to become dangerously overconfident
Probably false — the data most likely reflects that the majority of all driving occurs near home, making local accidents more frequent without indicating greater risk per mile driven (Correct answer)

Correct answer: Probably false — the data most likely reflects that the majority of all driving occurs near home, making local accidents more frequent without indicating greater risk per mile driven

This is a base-rate error: most people's total driving miles are accumulated near their home, so accidents naturally cluster there by volume, not by elevated risk. Without knowing miles driven per zone, the accident count alone does not establish that local driving is more dangerous per mile.

Question 46: Observation: Every time it rains, the streets get wet. The streets are wet. Which inference rating applies to 'It has rained recently'?

Probably true (Correct answer)
Insufficient data
Probably false
True

Correct answer: Probably true

Wet streets are consistent with recent rain but other causes (sprinklers, flooding) are possible, so 'probably true' is the best rating.

Question 47: A speaker says: 'Laws must be followed. Jaywalking is against the law. Therefore, jaywalking is seriously wrong.' The argument equivocates on which term?

Laws
Must
Jaywalking
Wrong (Correct answer)

Correct answer: Wrong

The equivocation is on 'wrong' — it shifts from 'legally prohibited' (a technical sense) to 'morally wrong' (a normative sense) without justification.

Question 48: Statement: The company's stock price rose 20% the day its new product was announced. Inference: Investors believe the new product will be profitable. How should this inference be rated?

Insufficient Data
True
Probably False
Probably True (Correct answer)

Correct answer: Probably True

Stock price increases on announcement days typically reflect positive investor sentiment about future profitability.

Question 49: Statement: 'Should the US require a national ID card for all citizens?' Argument: 'No, because other countries use national ID cards and still have high rates of identity theft.' Is this argument strong or weak?

Strong, because international evidence is always relevant to policy decisions
Weak, because the US already has Social Security numbers
Strong, because national ID systems clearly fail to prevent identity theft
Weak, because identity theft rates abroad may reflect many unrelated factors (Correct answer)

Correct answer: Weak, because identity theft rates abroad may reflect many unrelated factors

The argument is weak because correlating identity theft rates in other countries to a US national ID proposal ignores many confounding variables.

Question 50: Argument: 'The new park reduced noise complaints in the neighborhood, so it must have reduced noise levels.' What unstated assumption is this making?

The park was built using government funds.
Residents report noise complaints in proportion to actual noise levels they experience. (Correct answer)
The park is open 24 hours a day.
Noise complaints were the primary motivation for building the park.

Correct answer: Residents report noise complaints in proportion to actual noise levels they experience.

Complaint rates may fall for reasons other than reduced noise — residents may have given up complaining, moved away, or become habituated to noise levels that haven't actually changed.

Question 51: Question: Should cities ban single-use plastic bags? Argument: Yes, because plastic bags are found in oceans and harm marine wildlife. This argument is:

Strong, because it provides an evidence-based environmental harm directly linked to the policy (Correct answer)
Weak, because banning bags in one city will not clean the ocean
Strong, because any reduction in plastic is automatically beneficial
Weak, because consumers should choose their own bags

Correct answer: Strong, because it provides an evidence-based environmental harm directly linked to the policy

The argument is strong because it cites a documented, specific harm (marine wildlife damage from plastic bags) that the proposed ban directly targets.

Question 52: A court document states: 'The defendant's fingerprints were found on the doorknob, and the defendant lived in the same building.' Which is an inference?

The defendant's fingerprints were found on the doorknob.
The defendant and victim were in the same building.
The defendant lived in the same building.
The defendant entered the apartment without permission. (Correct answer)

Correct answer: The defendant entered the apartment without permission.

Unauthorized entry is an inference; fingerprints on a doorknob in one's own building could have an innocent explanation.

Question 53: A study found that children who read for pleasure for at least 20 minutes a day had vocabularies twice the size of those who did not. Which is the most cautious interpretation?

All children who don't read for pleasure will have small vocabularies.
Parents must enforce 20 minutes of daily reading to ensure vocabulary growth.
Children who read more had larger vocabularies in this study. (Correct answer)
Reading for pleasure is the only way to build a large vocabulary.

Correct answer: Children who read more had larger vocabularies in this study.

The study shows an association within its sample; other vocabulary-building factors and broader applications are not addressed.

Question 54: A university library recorded that students who borrowed physical books at least twice per month earned final grades averaging 0.4 GPA points higher than students who never borrowed books. The library did not track whether high-achieving students were simply more likely to use the library regardless of books. Which of the following interpretations is BEST supported by the passage?

Borrowing physical books causes students to earn higher grades.
Universities should require all students to borrow books monthly to improve academic performance.
Students who borrow books are more intelligent than those who do not.
There is an association between frequent book borrowing and higher GPA, though causation has not been established. (Correct answer)

Correct answer: There is an association between frequent book borrowing and higher GPA, though causation has not been established.

The passage describes a correlation between book borrowing frequency and GPA but explicitly notes that the direction of causation is unknown — high achievers may simply use the library more. Option B accurately reflects an association without claiming causation. Option A overstates by asserting causation. Options C and D introduce conclusions that go far beyond what the data support.

Question 55: Natalie typically works at an office from Monday through Friday, from 9 am to 5 pm, but she has a doctor's appointment on Wednesday at 3 pm. <br> On Wednesday, Natalie is off work. <br> <br> This sentence a within the paragraph:

Assumption not made
Assumption made (Correct answer)

Correct answer: Assumption made

Explanation: <br> It is presumed that Natalie took the day off from work to attend her appointment because she often works in an office during the day.

Question 56: Which of the five Watson-Glaser sub-tests requires you to judge whether a conclusion necessarily follows from two given statements, assuming both are true?

Recognition of Assumptions
Deduction (Correct answer)
Interpretation
Inference

Correct answer: Deduction

The Deduction sub-test presents two premises and asks whether a stated conclusion must logically follow if the premises are accepted as true.

Question 57: A large corporation is considering a new policy that would require all employees, including those who work fully remotely, to be fully vaccinated against the seasonal flu. Which of the following is the WEAKEST argument in favor of this policy?

Company data from last year shows that teams with higher rates of sick leave, much of which was flu-related, missed their quarterly targets by an average of 8%.
Our company's health insurance provider offers a small premium discount for companies that achieve a 90% or higher employee vaccination rate.
Mandating vaccines is a sign of a company that cares deeply about the health and safety of its employees and the broader community. (Correct answer)
Even remote workers may occasionally need to visit an office or attend an in-person company event, posing a risk of transmission to colleagues.

Correct answer: Mandating vaccines is a sign of a company that cares deeply about the health and safety of its employees and the broader community.

This argument is the weakest because it relies on an emotional appeal and makes a subjective claim about what the policy 'is a sign of'. A weak argument often appeals to emotion rather than providing a direct, logical reason that is important to the matter at hand. The other options present practical, business-related reasons (insurance costs, productivity, and transmission risk).

Question 58: A nonprofit literacy program reported that children who participated in its eight-week summer reading initiative read an average of 14 books over the summer, compared to an average of 4 books for non-participants. Participation was voluntary, and parents of participants were required to provide weekly reading logs. Which of the following interpretations is BEST supported by the passage?

Participants read more books on average than non-participants, though self-selection and parental involvement may explain part of the difference. (Correct answer)
The program caused participants to read more books than non-participants over the summer.
The program should be made mandatory to close the reading gap between participants and non-participants.
Non-participating children are less interested in reading than participating children.

Correct answer: Participants read more books on average than non-participants, though self-selection and parental involvement may explain part of the difference.

Option B correctly captures the observable gap (14 vs. 4 books) while acknowledging that voluntary enrollment and required parental logging create selection effects — families who opted in may already be more reading-oriented. Option A asserts that the program caused the difference without accounting for these confounds. Option C draws an inference about interest that the data do not establish. Option D prescribes a policy change that goes well beyond the evidence.

Question 59: Statement: 'All mammals are warm-blooded. Dolphins are mammals.' Conclusion: 'Therefore, dolphins are warm-blooded.' Evaluate this conclusion.

The conclusion does not follow because dolphins live in cold water.
The conclusion follows necessarily from the given statements. (Correct answer)
The conclusion is probably true but requires further evidence.
The conclusion follows only if dolphins are also vertebrates.

Correct answer: The conclusion follows necessarily from the given statements.

This is a valid deductive syllogism: if all mammals are warm-blooded and dolphins are mammals, then dolphins must be warm-blooded.

Question 60: Statement: 'Countries with higher average incomes report higher happiness scores.' Inference: Increasing income is the most effective way to improve national happiness. This inference is:

Probably False
True
Insufficient Data (Correct answer)
Probably True

Correct answer: Insufficient Data

The correlation shows a relationship but doesn't establish that income is the most effective lever among all possible interventions.

Question 61: Statement: 'Should prisons focus more on rehabilitation than punishment?' Argument: 'Yes, because recidivism rates are lower among individuals who receive education and vocational training while incarcerated.' Is this argument strong or weak?

Weak, because rehabilitation programs are costly
Strong, because it provides direct empirical support for the effectiveness of the proposed approach (Correct answer)
Strong, because prisoners deserve better treatment
Weak, because punishment has served as a deterrent for centuries

Correct answer: Strong, because it provides direct empirical support for the effectiveness of the proposed approach

The argument is strong because it cites outcome data directly relevant to the core objective of reducing repeat offenses.

Question 62: A doctor notices that patients prescribed a new drug recovered faster than historical records suggest. She concludes that the drug is effective. What is the primary weakness in this conclusion?

Recovery speed is not a valid measure of drug effectiveness.
There is no control group, so other factors (better nursing, newer equipment) may explain the faster recovery. (Correct answer)
The drug must be tested on animals first before concluding it works in humans.
Historical records are always accurate, so the comparison is unfair.

Correct answer: There is no control group, so other factors (better nursing, newer equipment) may explain the faster recovery.

Without a concurrent control group, improvements in standard of care, patient selection, or other factors could explain the faster recovery rather than the drug.

Question 63: Quarterly earnings data shows Company Z's revenue grew 8% in Q1, declined 3% in Q2, grew 5% in Q3, and declined 2% in Q4, for a net annual growth of about 8%. An analyst concludes the company had a strong year. Is this interpretation supported?

Partially — 8% net growth is positive, but the within-year volatility suggests instability that warrants further investigation. (Correct answer)
No — any decline in any quarter means the company performed poorly.
Yes — 8% annual growth is objectively strong in any industry.
Yes — quarterly fluctuations are normal and don't affect the annual conclusion.

Correct answer: Partially — 8% net growth is positive, but the within-year volatility suggests instability that warrants further investigation.

Net annual growth is a positive signal, but alternating growth and decline quarters suggest revenue instability that a simple annual figure masks — a fuller picture requires understanding the volatility.

Question 64: Premises: All fruits contain seeds. Bananas are fruits. Conclusion: Bananas contain seeds.

The conclusion requires additional premises
The conclusion does not follow
The premises are false so no conclusion follows
The conclusion follows (Correct answer)

Correct answer: The conclusion follows

The syllogism is valid: all fruits contain seeds, bananas are fruits, therefore bananas contain seeds — the conclusion follows from the premises as stated.

Question 65: Statement: 'Send the report by Friday so the manager can review it before the Monday meeting.' Proposed assumption: 'The manager needs time before the meeting to review the report.' Is this assumption made?

Assumption made (Correct answer)
The meeting is the only assumption in this statement
Assumption not made
The Friday deadline is explicitly explained

Correct answer: Assumption made

The Friday deadline is justified by assuming the manager requires advance time to read and process the report before Monday.

Question 66: EVALUATION OF ARGUMENTS: 'This medication should be approved because thousands of patients need it.' Why is this argument considered WEAK in a clinical evaluation context?

Thousands is not a large enough number to matter.
Not all patients agree that they need the medication.
Patient need does not establish that the medication is safe or effective. (Correct answer)
Medications should only be approved by elected officials.

Correct answer: Patient need does not establish that the medication is safe or effective.

In clinical evaluation, approval requires evidence of safety and efficacy — demand alone does not meet this standard.

Question 67: A pharmaceutical company states: 'In our clinical trial, patients taking Drug X had a 40% lower rate of symptom recurrence than those taking a placebo.' Their conclusion is that Drug X prevents symptom recurrence. Evaluate this conclusion.

The conclusion is well-supported because a randomized placebo-controlled comparison directly tests the drug's effect. (Correct answer)
The conclusion is weak because placebo effects can fully account for any difference.
The conclusion is invalid unless the drug was tested across multiple countries.
The conclusion is unsupported because clinical trials are never reliable.

Correct answer: The conclusion is well-supported because a randomized placebo-controlled comparison directly tests the drug's effect.

A placebo-controlled trial directly compares the drug's effect against a baseline where placebo effects are equally present in both groups, making the 40% difference attributable to the drug.

Question 68: A town reports that installing speed cameras on Main Street reduced accidents by 40%. A resident argues the cameras should be installed on all streets. What is the primary flaw in the resident's reasoning?

Other streets may already have low accident rates
The resident assumes that conditions on Main Street are representative of all streets in town (Correct answer)
Speed cameras are expensive to install and maintain
The 40% reduction may not be statistically significant

Correct answer: The resident assumes that conditions on Main Street are representative of all streets in town

Generalizing results from one street to all streets assumes comparable traffic conditions, which may not hold.

Question 69: Statement: All the employees who completed the advanced training program received a salary increase. Janet completed the advanced training program. Conclusion: Janet received a salary increase. This conclusion is:

Probably True
False
Insufficient Data
True (Correct answer)

Correct answer: True

The statement establishes a universal rule (all who completed = received increase), and Janet is confirmed to have completed it, so the conclusion follows necessarily.

Question 70: A manager notes: 'Sales dropped 15% in Q3 compared to Q2.' Which statement is an inference rather than a fact? A) Sales were lower in Q3 than in Q2. B) There was a 15% decline in sales between Q2 and Q3. C) The sales team performed poorly and needs retraining. D) Q3 sales figures were recorded and compared to Q2.

Sales were lower in Q3 than in Q2.
The sales team performed poorly and needs retraining. (Correct answer)
There was a 15% decline in sales between Q2 and Q3.
Q3 sales figures were recorded and compared to Q2.

Correct answer: The sales team performed poorly and needs retraining.

Attributing the sales drop to poor team performance is an inference that goes beyond the stated facts; the other options restate or paraphrase the known data.

Question 71: A nutritionist concludes that a low-carb diet causes significant long-term weight loss based on a two-week study of 15 volunteers. A critic argues the sample is too small and the period too short. The critic is questioning which aspect of source credibility?

Whether the evidence base is robust enough to support the conclusion drawn (Correct answer)
Whether the study was published in the right journal
Whether the study was funded by a diet company
The nutritionist's academic qualifications

Correct answer: Whether the evidence base is robust enough to support the conclusion drawn

Sample size and study duration determine whether findings can be legitimately generalized. A small, brief study lacks statistical power and cannot capture long-term effects — so the issue is evidentiary adequacy, not credentials or funding.

Question 72: A politician states: 'Either you support this bill entirely, or you are against economic progress.' Which form of biased reasoning does this statement exemplify?

Ad hominem
Straw man fallacy
Circular reasoning
False dichotomy (Correct answer)

Correct answer: False dichotomy

A false dichotomy presents only two options as if no alternatives exist, forcing a choice between extremes when middle positions are possible.

Question 73: A graph shows ice cream sales and drowning incidents both peak in summer. What should you conclude?

The data is too limited to analyze
Both variables share a common cause — summer heat and outdoor activity — rather than a direct link (Correct answer)
Drowning incidents cause increased ice cream sales
Ice cream consumption increases drowning risk

Correct answer: Both variables share a common cause — summer heat and outdoor activity — rather than a direct link

Both variables are driven by a third factor (summer season), making this a classic example of a confounding variable, not causation.

Question 74: A school board is debating a proposal to require high school students to complete 100 hours of community service to graduate. Which of the following is the STRONGEST argument AGAINST this proposal?

Some students already have part-time jobs and adding a 100-hour requirement would be an unfair burden on their time.
A survey of local non-profits indicates they lack the capacity and staff to effectively manage a large influx of student volunteers. (Correct answer)
The requirement would create significant administrative work for school staff to track all the students' hours.
Community service should be something students choose to do out of generosity, not a mandatory requirement.

Correct answer: A survey of local non-profits indicates they lack the capacity and staff to effectively manage a large influx of student volunteers.

This argument is the strongest because it points to a significant logistical failure in the proposal that could make it impossible to implement effectively. It is an important, practical consideration that is directly related to the feasibility of the plan. The other arguments, while relevant, are either based on opinion (C), affect a smaller subset of people (A), or address a manageable internal problem (D).

Question 75: An article claims: 'After the city installed new streetlights, crime dropped by 15%. The streetlights caused the crime reduction.' Which fallacy does this illustrate?

Hasty generalization
Equivocation
Appeal to authority
Post hoc ergo propter hoc (Correct answer)

Correct answer: Post hoc ergo propter hoc

Post hoc ergo propter hoc incorrectly concludes that because B followed A, A must have caused B, ignoring other possible explanations.

Question 76: A company's accident rate dropped from 8% to 4% after mandatory safety training. An analyst notes that the company also hired a new safety officer at the same time. What should the analyst conclude?

Accident rates always drop over time
The improvement cannot be attributed solely to training because the safety officer's role is a confounding variable (Correct answer)
The safety officer had no effect on accident rates
The training program caused the improvement

Correct answer: The improvement cannot be attributed solely to training because the safety officer's role is a confounding variable

When multiple changes occur simultaneously, isolating the effect of any single variable requires study designs that separate those variables.

Question 77: Premise: All traffic violations recorded in Zone B result in fines. Premise: Carlos received a fine. Conclusion: Carlos committed a traffic violation in Zone B. Is this conclusion valid?

The conclusion does not follow — fines can result from violations in other zones or non-traffic offenses. (Correct answer)
The conclusion follows if Carlos was stopped in Zone B.
The conclusion does not follow — the fine amount determines the violation type.
The conclusion follows — fines in Zone B are only for traffic violations.

Correct answer: The conclusion does not follow — fines can result from violations in other zones or non-traffic offenses.

The premise establishes that Zone B violations lead to fines, not that fines are exclusively from Zone B violations; Carlos's fine could have another source.

Question 78: A hospital advertises a 95% survival rate for its cardiac surgery patients. A competing hospital advertises 90%. Which piece of information is most critical before concluding the first hospital is better?

Which hospital charges higher fees
Whether the case mix (severity of patients) differs between the hospitals (Correct answer)
The hospitals' locations
The hospital's founding year

Correct answer: Whether the case mix (severity of patients) differs between the hospitals

A hospital that treats more high-risk patients may have a lower survival rate even if it performs equally well or better.

Question 79: Data shows that runners who stretch before exercise have more injuries than those who do not. Which interpretation is best supported?

Stretching causes injuries in runners
The data proves stretching is useless
Stretching should be banned for runners
Runners with prior injuries may stretch more as a precaution, explaining the association (Correct answer)

Correct answer: Runners with prior injuries may stretch more as a precaution, explaining the association

Reverse causation is plausible: injured or injury-prone runners may be more likely to stretch, creating a misleading association.

Question 80: A university's internal data shows that students who attended more than 90% of lectures had a class average GPA of 3.6, while students who attended fewer than 60% of lectures averaged 2.4 GPA. An academic dean states, 'Low attendance is causing students to earn lower grades.' Which best characterizes the dean's statement?

It is a fact because GPA and attendance are both measured by the university.
It is a fact because the GPA difference is statistically significant and therefore proves causation.
It is an inference only if the sample size of students is too small to draw conclusions.
It is an inference, since the correlation does not by itself establish that attendance causes higher GPA. (Correct answer)

Correct answer: It is an inference, since the correlation does not by itself establish that attendance causes higher GPA.

The GPA and attendance figures are documented facts. The dean's causal claim — that low attendance causes lower grades — is an inference. Correlation does not establish causation; students who attend less might also differ in motivation, workload, or personal circumstances that independently affect grades.

Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal

The Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal exam validates essential knowledge and skills required for certification or licensure in this field.

Questions

60 min

Time Limit

65%

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