Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Assessing Probability of Inferences Questions and Answers 5

Question 1

Passage: A fitness club finds that members who visit at least 4 times per week for 6 months are 80% less likely to cancel their membership than those who visit once per week. Inference: 'Encouraging members to visit more often will reduce cancellation rates.' How should this inference be rated?

Accepted Answer

Insufficient Data

Answer

There is insufficient data because members who visit frequently may already be more motivated and committed—encouraging infrequent visitors to come more often may not produce the same effect.

Question 2

On the Watson-Glaser, an inference rated 'Probably False' means:

Accepted Answer

The inference is more likely to be wrong than right given the passage, but is not definitively refuted

Answer

'Probably False' indicates the inference is more likely false than true based on the passage, but the evidence is not conclusive enough to rate it 'False.'

Question 3

Passage: 'Last winter, the number of flu cases in Northport was three times higher than the previous winter. Last winter was also the first year the city did not run its annual flu vaccination campaign.' Inference: 'Canceling the flu vaccination campaign caused the increase in flu cases.' How should this inference be rated?

Accepted Answer

Probably True

Answer

The inference is probably true because the timing aligns and a well-established mechanism (vaccines reduce flu spread) supports the link, though other factors like a more virulent strain cannot be excluded.

Question 4

Passage: 'A university discovered that students who use the campus gym score, on average, 8 points higher on their GPA than non-users.' Inference: 'Using the campus gym raises students' GPA.' How should this inference be rated?

Accepted Answer

Insufficient Data

Answer

There is insufficient data because highly motivated students may be more likely both to use the gym and to earn higher GPAs—motivation, not gym use, could drive both outcomes.

Question 5

Passage: A legal brief states: 'The defendant was seen leaving the building at 9:05 PM. The fire started at 9:00 PM.' Inference: 'The defendant did not start the fire.' How should this inference be rated?

Accepted Answer

Insufficient Data

Answer

There is insufficient data because the defendant could have started the fire before 9:00 PM using a delayed mechanism, or the timing may not be precise.

Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Practice Test

Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Practice Test

Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Assessing Probability of Inferences Questions and Answers 5