Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Assessing Probability of Inferences Questions and Answers 5 â Questions and Answers
Question 1: Passage: A fitness club finds that members who visit at least 4 times per week for 6 months are 80% less likely to cancel their membership than those who visit once per week. Inference: 'Encouraging members to visit more often will reduce cancellation rates.' How should this inference be rated?
- True
- Probably True
- Insufficient Data (Correct answer)
- Probably False
Correct answer: Insufficient Data
There is insufficient data because members who visit frequently may already be more motivated and committedâencouraging infrequent visitors to come more often may not produce the same effect.
Question 2: On the Watson-Glaser, an inference rated 'Probably False' means:
- The inference directly contradicts a stated fact in the passage
- The inference is more likely to be wrong than right given the passage, but is not definitively refuted (Correct answer)
- The passage provides no information to judge the inference
- The inference follows logically from the passage but is counterintuitive
Correct answer: The inference is more likely to be wrong than right given the passage, but is not definitively refuted
'Probably False' indicates the inference is more likely false than true based on the passage, but the evidence is not conclusive enough to rate it 'False.'
Question 3: Passage: 'Last winter, the number of flu cases in Northport was three times higher than the previous winter. Last winter was also the first year the city did not run its annual flu vaccination campaign.' Inference: 'Canceling the flu vaccination campaign caused the increase in flu cases.' How should this inference be rated?
- True
- Probably True (Correct answer)
- Insufficient Data
- Probably False
Correct answer: Probably True
The inference is probably true because the timing aligns and a well-established mechanism (vaccines reduce flu spread) supports the link, though other factors like a more virulent strain cannot be excluded.
Question 4: Passage: 'A university discovered that students who use the campus gym score, on average, 8 points higher on their GPA than non-users.' Inference: 'Using the campus gym raises students' GPA.' How should this inference be rated?
- Probably True
- Insufficient Data (Correct answer)
- Probably False
- False
Correct answer: Insufficient Data
There is insufficient data because highly motivated students may be more likely both to use the gym and to earn higher GPAsâmotivation, not gym use, could drive both outcomes.
Question 5: Passage: A legal brief states: 'The defendant was seen leaving the building at 9:05 PM. The fire started at 9:00 PM.' Inference: 'The defendant did not start the fire.' How should this inference be rated?
- True
- Probably True
- Insufficient Data (Correct answer)
- Probably False
Correct answer: Insufficient Data
There is insufficient data because the defendant could have started the fire before 9:00 PM using a delayed mechanism, or the timing may not be precise.
Question 6: Passage: 'Every major bridge collapse in the region over the past 30 years occurred during winter months.' Inference: 'Cold weather is the primary cause of bridge collapses in the region.' How should this inference be rated?
- True
- Probably True
- Insufficient Data (Correct answer)
- Probably False
Correct answer: Insufficient Data
There is insufficient data because winter brings multiple stressors (ice, heavy traffic, de-icing chemicals) and the passage does not specify which factorâif anyâis primary.
Question 7: Passage: 'Since the city installed surveillance cameras downtown, reported muggings fell by 55% over two years. No other major policy changes occurred in that area.' Inference: 'The surveillance cameras deterred muggers and reduced muggings.' How should this inference be rated?
- True
- Probably True (Correct answer)
- Insufficient Data
- Probably False
Correct answer: Probably True
The inference is probably true because the timing, the size of the effect, and the absence of other policy changes make camera deterrence the most plausible explanation.
Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Assessing Probability of Inferences Questions and Answers 5
Passage: A fitness club finds that members who visit at least 4 times per week for 6 months are 80% less likely to cancel their membership than those who visit once per week.
Inference: 'Encouraging members to visit more often will reduce cancellation rates.' How should this inference be rated?