Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Assessing Probability of Inferences Questions and Answers 3

Question 1

Passage: A city's annual report shows that ambulance response times improved by 18% after new dispatch software was installed last year. An analyst concludes: 'The new dispatch software is solely responsible for the improvement in ambulance response times.' How should this inference be rated?

Accepted Answer

Probably False

Answer

The inference is probably false because other factors—such as hiring additional staff, road changes, or reduced call volume—could also have contributed to the improvement.

Question 2

Passage: In a survey of 500 office workers, 72% reported feeling more productive when they had access to natural light at their workstations. Inference: 'All workers are more productive when exposed to natural light.' How should this inference be rated?

Accepted Answer

Probably False

Answer

The inference is probably false because 'feeling more productive' does not equal actually being more productive, and 'all workers' overgeneralizes from a sample.

Question 3

Passage: A local bakery raised the price of its signature loaf from $3 to $5. Sales of that loaf dropped by 30% in the following month. Inference: 'Customers stopped buying the loaf because they disliked the new price.' How should this inference be rated?

Accepted Answer

Probably True

Answer

The inference is probably true because a 30% sales drop immediately following a 67% price increase strongly suggests price sensitivity, though other causes cannot be entirely ruled out.

Question 4

Passage: The statement reads: 'Every student who attended the optional SAT prep workshop scored above the school average on the SAT.' Inference: 'Attending the prep workshop causes students to score above average.' How should this inference be rated?

Accepted Answer

Insufficient Data

Answer

There is insufficient data because students who chose to attend may already have been higher-achieving, making self-selection a confounding factor.

Question 5

Passage: A hospital reports that patients who received a new post-surgery care protocol spent on average 1.5 fewer days in the hospital than patients who did not. The study controlled for age, diagnosis severity, and surgeon. Inference: 'The new care protocol reduced hospital stay length.' How should this inference be rated?

Accepted Answer

Probably True

Answer

The inference is probably true because the study controlled for major confounders, making the protocol the most plausible explanation for the reduction.

Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Practice Test

Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Practice Test

Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Assessing Probability of Inferences Questions and Answers 3