Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Assessing Probability of Inferences 5

Question 1

Statement: A town council voted unanimously to approve a new shopping center. Inference: All residents of the town support the new shopping center.
How should this inference be rated?

Accepted Answer

Probably False

Answer

Council votes do not reflect unanimous resident opinion; residents often hold diverse views independent of elected officials.

Question 2

Statement: An airline reported that flight delays fell by 40% in the year after it replaced its aging fleet with new aircraft. Inference: The aging fleet was a major contributor to the airline's delays.
How should this inference be rated?

Accepted Answer

Probably True

Answer

A 40% reduction in delays after fleet replacement strongly suggests the old aircraft were a significant cause of delays.

Question 3

Statement: The athlete trained twice as many hours this season and won the championship. Inference: The increased training hours were the reason the athlete won the championship.
How should this inference be rated?

Accepted Answer

Insufficient Data

Answer

Competitor performance, coaching changes, equipment, or luck may also have contributed; training hours alone are insufficient to confirm causation.

Question 4

Statement: A hospital that introduced daily staff check-ins saw patient satisfaction scores rise from 72% to 91% within six months. Inference: Daily staff check-ins improved patient satisfaction.
How should this inference be rated?

Accepted Answer

Probably True

Answer

A nearly 20-point rise in satisfaction following a single identifiable operational change makes the causal link probable.

Question 5

Statement: The new bridge reduced average commute time across the river by 25 minutes. Inference: Commuters are more satisfied with their daily travel since the bridge opened.
How should this inference be rated?

Accepted Answer

Probably True

Answer

A 25-minute time saving in daily commuting is substantial enough that increased satisfaction is the probable outcome for most commuters.

Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Practice Test

Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Practice Test

Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Assessing Probability of Inferences 5