Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Assessing Probability of Inferences 5 — Questions and Answers
Question 1: Statement: A town council voted unanimously to approve a new shopping center. Inference: All residents of the town support the new shopping center. How should this inference be rated?
- True
- Probably True
- Insufficient Data
- Probably False (Correct answer)
Correct answer: Probably False
Council votes do not reflect unanimous resident opinion; residents often hold diverse views independent of elected officials.
Question 2: Statement: An airline reported that flight delays fell by 40% in the year after it replaced its aging fleet with new aircraft. Inference: The aging fleet was a major contributor to the airline's delays. How should this inference be rated?
- True
- Probably True (Correct answer)
- Insufficient Data
- Probably False
Correct answer: Probably True
A 40% reduction in delays after fleet replacement strongly suggests the old aircraft were a significant cause of delays.
Question 3: Statement: The athlete trained twice as many hours this season and won the championship. Inference: The increased training hours were the reason the athlete won the championship. How should this inference be rated?
- True
- Probably True
- Insufficient Data (Correct answer)
- Probably False
Correct answer: Insufficient Data
Competitor performance, coaching changes, equipment, or luck may also have contributed; training hours alone are insufficient to confirm causation.
Question 4: Statement: A hospital that introduced daily staff check-ins saw patient satisfaction scores rise from 72% to 91% within six months. Inference: Daily staff check-ins improved patient satisfaction. How should this inference be rated?
- True
- Probably True (Correct answer)
- Insufficient Data
- Probably False
Correct answer: Probably True
A nearly 20-point rise in satisfaction following a single identifiable operational change makes the causal link probable.
Question 5: Statement: The new bridge reduced average commute time across the river by 25 minutes. Inference: Commuters are more satisfied with their daily travel since the bridge opened. How should this inference be rated?
- True
- Probably True (Correct answer)
- Insufficient Data
- Probably False
Correct answer: Probably True
A 25-minute time saving in daily commuting is substantial enough that increased satisfaction is the probable outcome for most commuters.
Question 6: Statement: Test scores in the school district dropped the year the district cut its arts programs. Inference: Cutting arts programs caused the drop in test scores. How should this inference be rated?
- True
- Probably True
- Insufficient Data (Correct answer)
- Probably False
Correct answer: Insufficient Data
Test scores are affected by many variables—teacher quality, demographics, funding—so arts cuts alone cannot confirm causation.
Question 7: Statement: Every household surveyed in the neighborhood owns at least one car. Inference: There are no households in the neighborhood without a car. How should this inference be rated?
- True
- Probably True
- Insufficient Data (Correct answer)
- Probably False
Correct answer: Insufficient Data
A survey may not have reached every household; unsurveyed homes could lack cars, making a universal claim go beyond the data.
Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Assessing Probability of Inferences 5
Statement: A town council voted unanimously to approve a new shopping center.
Inference: All residents of the town support the new shopping center.
How should this inference be rated?