Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Assessing Probability of Inferences 4

Question 1

Statement: Sales of umbrellas in the city doubled during October. Inference: It rained more than usual in that city during October.
How should this inference be rated?

Accepted Answer

Probably True

Answer

Umbrella sales doubling is a strong behavioral signal of increased rain, making this inference probably true.

Question 2

Statement: A school adopted a four-day school week, and teacher absenteeism fell by 50% the following year. Inference: Teachers preferred the four-day week and were therefore more motivated to attend.
How should this inference be rated?

Accepted Answer

Insufficient Data

Answer

The data shows lower absenteeism but does not reveal whether motivation, fewer illness opportunities, or scheduling changes caused the drop.

Question 3

Statement: The number of people exercising in the park dropped significantly the week temperatures fell below freezing. Inference: Cold weather discourages outdoor exercise.
How should this inference be rated?

Accepted Answer

Probably True

Answer

The direct correlation between freezing temperatures and reduced outdoor exercise aligns with common human behavior, making this probably true.

Question 4

Statement: No customer complaints were filed against the company last quarter. Inference: All customers were satisfied with the company's products and services last quarter.
How should this inference be rated?

Accepted Answer

Probably False

Answer

Many dissatisfied customers never file formal complaints, so the absence of complaints does not prove universal satisfaction.

Question 5

Statement: A pharmaceutical trial showed that patients taking Drug X recovered from the flu two days faster than the placebo group. The trial included 1,200 participants across five hospitals. Inference: Drug X is effective at speeding flu recovery.
How should this inference be rated?

Accepted Answer

Probably True

Answer

A large, multi-site trial showing consistent results provides strong evidence, making 'probably true' the best rating without a full peer review.

Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Practice Test

Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Practice Test

Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Assessing Probability of Inferences 4