Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Assessing Probability of Inferences 4 — Questions and Answers
Question 1: Statement: Sales of umbrellas in the city doubled during October. Inference: It rained more than usual in that city during October. How should this inference be rated?
- True
- Probably True (Correct answer)
- Insufficient Data
- Probably False
Correct answer: Probably True
Umbrella sales doubling is a strong behavioral signal of increased rain, making this inference probably true.
Question 2: Statement: A school adopted a four-day school week, and teacher absenteeism fell by 50% the following year. Inference: Teachers preferred the four-day week and were therefore more motivated to attend. How should this inference be rated?
- True
- Probably True
- Insufficient Data (Correct answer)
- Probably False
Correct answer: Insufficient Data
The data shows lower absenteeism but does not reveal whether motivation, fewer illness opportunities, or scheduling changes caused the drop.
Question 3: Statement: The number of people exercising in the park dropped significantly the week temperatures fell below freezing. Inference: Cold weather discourages outdoor exercise. How should this inference be rated?
- True
- Probably True (Correct answer)
- Insufficient Data
- False
Correct answer: Probably True
The direct correlation between freezing temperatures and reduced outdoor exercise aligns with common human behavior, making this probably true.
Question 4: Statement: No customer complaints were filed against the company last quarter. Inference: All customers were satisfied with the company's products and services last quarter. How should this inference be rated?
- True
- Probably True
- Insufficient Data
- Probably False (Correct answer)
Correct answer: Probably False
Many dissatisfied customers never file formal complaints, so the absence of complaints does not prove universal satisfaction.
Question 5: Statement: A pharmaceutical trial showed that patients taking Drug X recovered from the flu two days faster than the placebo group. The trial included 1,200 participants across five hospitals. Inference: Drug X is effective at speeding flu recovery. How should this inference be rated?
- True
- Probably True (Correct answer)
- Insufficient Data
- Probably False
Correct answer: Probably True
A large, multi-site trial showing consistent results provides strong evidence, making 'probably true' the best rating without a full peer review.
Question 6: Statement: The library saw a 60% increase in membership after it began offering free Wi-Fi. Inference: People joined the library primarily to access free Wi-Fi. How should this inference be rated?
- True
- Probably True
- Insufficient Data (Correct answer)
- Probably False
Correct answer: Insufficient Data
The timing is suggestive, but membership could have risen due to new books, marketing, or other concurrent changes not mentioned.
Question 7: Statement: In a study, drivers who talked on handheld phones while driving had three times more accidents than those who did not use phones. Inference: Using a handheld phone while driving increases accident risk. How should this inference be rated?
- True
- Probably True (Correct answer)
- Insufficient Data
- Probably False
Correct answer: Probably True
A threefold accident rate difference, supported by extensive prior research on distraction, makes this inference probably true.
Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Assessing Probability of Inferences 4
Statement: Sales of umbrellas in the city doubled during October.
Inference: It rained more than usual in that city during October.
How should this inference be rated?