Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Assessing Probability of Inferences 2

Question 1

Statement: A city park reported a 40% increase in visitors after installing new playground equipment. Inference: The new playground equipment caused the increase in park visitors.
How should this inference be rated?

Accepted Answer

Probably True

Answer

The inference is probably true because the timing suggests a causal link, though other factors (weather, events) cannot be fully ruled out.

Question 2

Statement: Every student who joined the after-school tutoring program last semester improved their grades. Inference: All students who join the tutoring program will improve their grades.
How should this inference be rated?

Accepted Answer

Insufficient Data

Answer

The data covers only one semester's students; future outcomes depend on factors not captured in this statement.

Question 3

Statement: The factory closed six months ago, and since then the river downstream has shown a 30% reduction in pollution levels. Inference: The factory was a significant source of the river's pollution.
How should this inference be rated?

Accepted Answer

Probably True

Answer

The temporal correlation strongly suggests the factory contributed to pollution, making 'probably true' the best rating.

Question 4

Statement: No injuries were recorded at the construction site during the three months that the new safety protocol was in effect. Inference: The new safety protocol completely eliminated workplace hazards.
How should this inference be rated?

Accepted Answer

Probably False

Answer

Zero recorded injuries does not mean all hazards were eliminated; some may remain but simply not resulted in injury yet.

Question 5

Statement: A study found that children who read at least 20 minutes a day scored higher on vocabulary tests than those who did not. Inference: Reading 20 minutes a day causes higher vocabulary scores in children.
How should this inference be rated?

Accepted Answer

Probably True

Answer

The correlation aligns with a well-supported educational mechanism, making a causal relationship probable though not proven.

Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Practice Test

Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Practice Test

Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Assessing Probability of Inferences 2