Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Assessing Probability of Inferences 2 — Questions and Answers
Question 1: Statement: A city park reported a 40% increase in visitors after installing new playground equipment. Inference: The new playground equipment caused the increase in park visitors. How should this inference be rated?
- True
- Probably True (Correct answer)
- Insufficient Data
- Probably False
Correct answer: Probably True
The inference is probably true because the timing suggests a causal link, though other factors (weather, events) cannot be fully ruled out.
Question 2: Statement: Every student who joined the after-school tutoring program last semester improved their grades. Inference: All students who join the tutoring program will improve their grades. How should this inference be rated?
- True
- Probably True
- Insufficient Data (Correct answer)
- Probably False
Correct answer: Insufficient Data
The data covers only one semester's students; future outcomes depend on factors not captured in this statement.
Question 3: Statement: The factory closed six months ago, and since then the river downstream has shown a 30% reduction in pollution levels. Inference: The factory was a significant source of the river's pollution. How should this inference be rated?
- True
- Probably True (Correct answer)
- Probably False
- False
Correct answer: Probably True
The temporal correlation strongly suggests the factory contributed to pollution, making 'probably true' the best rating.
Question 4: Statement: No injuries were recorded at the construction site during the three months that the new safety protocol was in effect. Inference: The new safety protocol completely eliminated workplace hazards. How should this inference be rated?
- True
- Probably True
- Probably False (Correct answer)
- False
Correct answer: Probably False
Zero recorded injuries does not mean all hazards were eliminated; some may remain but simply not resulted in injury yet.
Question 5: Statement: A study found that children who read at least 20 minutes a day scored higher on vocabulary tests than those who did not. Inference: Reading 20 minutes a day causes higher vocabulary scores in children. How should this inference be rated?
- True
- Probably True (Correct answer)
- Insufficient Data
- Probably False
Correct answer: Probably True
The correlation aligns with a well-supported educational mechanism, making a causal relationship probable though not proven.
Question 6: Statement: The new mayor took office in January, and by March, the city's response time to emergency calls had dropped by 15%. Inference: The mayor's policies directly reduced emergency response times. How should this inference be rated?
- True
- Probably True
- Insufficient Data (Correct answer)
- Probably False
Correct answer: Insufficient Data
The two-month window provides insufficient data to confirm the mayor's policies—rather than staffing, weather, or other variables—caused the change.
Question 7: Statement: The restaurant received one-star reviews for three consecutive weeks after changing its chef. Inference: Customers disliked the food prepared by the new chef. How should this inference be rated?
- True
- Probably True (Correct answer)
- Insufficient Data
- False
Correct answer: Probably True
Three weeks of consistently negative reviews immediately following a chef change makes dissatisfaction with the new cooking the probable explanation.
Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Assessing Probability of Inferences 2
Statement: A city park reported a 40% increase in visitors after installing new playground equipment.
Inference: The new playground equipment caused the increase in park visitors.
How should this inference be rated?