Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Evaluating Causal Relationships

Question 1

A study finds that cities with more ice cream sales have higher drowning rates. A researcher concludes that ice cream causes drowning. What is the most critical flaw?

Accepted Answer

A confounding variable (hot weather) likely explains both trends.

Answer

Hot weather increases both ice cream consumption and swimming, making weather the common cause rather than a direct causal link.

Question 2

Every time employee morale surveys score high, productivity increases the following quarter. A manager concludes that high morale causes productivity gains. What must be considered?

Accepted Answer

Reverse causation is possible — rising productivity may lift morale first.

Answer

Correlation can run in either direction; higher productivity expectations may boost morale, not the other way around.

Question 3

A new training program was introduced in January. Errors dropped by 20% in February. The HR team declares the training caused the drop. Which alternative explanation weakens this claim most?

Accepted Answer

A separate process improvement was also implemented in January.

Answer

If another intervention occurred simultaneously, it is impossible to isolate the training as the cause.

Question 4

Research shows people who eat breakfast regularly earn higher incomes. A public health report states: 'Eating breakfast boosts earning potential.' What reasoning error is present?

Accepted Answer

Confounding variables such as socioeconomic status likely explain both habits.

Answer

Higher socioeconomic status correlates with both stable breakfast habits and higher earnings, making it the likely common cause.

Question 5

A company notices that departments with standing desks report fewer sick days. They plan to give all employees standing desks to cut absenteeism. What critical thinking concern applies?

Accepted Answer

Self-selection bias: healthier employees may have chosen standing desks.

Answer

If only health-conscious employees opted into standing desks, the correlation reflects their pre-existing habits, not the desks' effect.

Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Practice Test

Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Practice Test

Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Evaluating Causal Relationships