Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Analyzing Conclusions Questions and Answers 3

Question 1

A transport company reports that introducing GPS tracking reduced delivery times by 15%. Management concludes that GPS tracking caused the improvement. Which is the most valid criticism of this conclusion?

Accepted Answer

Drivers may have improved performance simply because they knew they were being monitored (Hawthorne effect).

Answer

The Hawthorne effect describes how people change their behavior when they know they are being observed, which could explain the improvement independent of GPS tracking's direct benefits.

Question 2

A school reports that students who read more than 30 books a year score higher on standardized tests. A principal concludes that requiring all students to read 30 books will raise test scores. What is the main flaw?

Accepted Answer

High readers may have other traits (motivation, parental support) that drive both reading and test scores.

Answer

Students who voluntarily read many books may be more motivated or have more academic support — these traits, not just the reading, may drive their higher test scores.

Question 3

A pharmaceutical company states: 'In our clinical trial, patients taking Drug X had a 40% lower rate of symptom recurrence than those taking a placebo.' Their conclusion is that Drug X prevents symptom recurrence. Evaluate this conclusion.

Accepted Answer

The conclusion is well-supported because a randomized placebo-controlled comparison directly tests the drug's effect.

Answer

A placebo-controlled trial directly compares the drug's effect against a baseline where placebo effects are equally present in both groups, making the 40% difference attributable to the drug.

Question 4

An auditor finds that a company's profits increased 25% in the same year it adopted a new accounting software. The CEO concludes the software caused the profit increase. Which alternative explanation most seriously challenges this conclusion?

Accepted Answer

The software may have been adopted because profits were already rising, not as a cause of them.

Answer

The adoption of the software may have been triggered by the company's already-improving financial position, reversing the assumed cause-and-effect direction.

Question 5

A nutritionist concludes that eating fish twice a week prevents heart disease because coastal populations who eat more fish have lower rates of heart disease. What is the weakest link in this reasoning?

Accepted Answer

Coastal populations may differ from inland populations in exercise habits, stress levels, and overall diet.

Answer

Coastal populations likely differ from inland ones in many ways besides fish consumption — these confounders make it impossible to isolate fish eating as the cause of lower heart disease rates.

Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Practice Test

Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Practice Test

Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Analyzing Conclusions Questions and Answers 3