PMI-RMP Quantitative Risk Analysis 2

Question 1

In a Monte Carlo simulation of project cost, what does the P80 value on the cumulative S-curve represent?

Accepted Answer

An 80% chance the actual cost will be at or below that value

Answer

P80 means there is an 80% probability the outcome will be at or below that cost value.

Question 2

A risk has a 30% probability and would cost $50,000 if it occurs. What is its expected monetary value (EMV)?

Accepted Answer

$15,000

Answer

EMV equals probability times impact, so 0.30 × $50,000 = $15,000.

Question 3

Which distribution is most commonly used in three-point estimating with optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic values?

Accepted Answer

Triangular or PERT (beta) distribution

Answer

Three-point estimates feed triangular or PERT/beta distributions in quantitative analysis.

Question 4

In a decision tree, what does the EMV at a decision node typically guide the project manager to choose?

Accepted Answer

The branch with the most favorable expected monetary value

Answer

Decision-tree analysis selects the path with the best expected monetary value.

Question 5

A tornado diagram in quantitative risk analysis is primarily used to display what?

Accepted Answer

The relative sensitivity of an outcome to individual risk variables

Answer

Tornado diagrams rank variables by how strongly they influence the outcome, showing sensitivity.

PMI-RMP Practice Test