PMI-RMP Quantitative Risk Analysis 2

Question 1

In a Monte Carlo simulation of project cost, what does the P80 value on the cumulative S-curve represent?

Accepted Answer

An 80% chance the actual cost will be at or below that value

Answer

An 80% chance the cost will exceed that value

Answer

The cost is 80% of the deterministic estimate

Answer

The 80th iteration of the simulation

Question 2

A risk has a 30% probability and would cost $50,000 if it occurs. What is its expected monetary value (EMV)?

Accepted Answer

$15,000

Answer

$50,000

Answer

$30,000

Answer

$166,667

Question 3

Which distribution is most commonly used in three-point estimating with optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic values?

Accepted Answer

Triangular or PERT (beta) distribution

Answer

Uniform distribution

Answer

Poisson distribution

Answer

Binomial distribution

Question 4

In a decision tree, what does the EMV at a decision node typically guide the project manager to choose?

Accepted Answer

The branch with the most favorable expected monetary value

Answer

The branch with the highest probability only

Answer

The cheapest upfront branch

Answer

The branch with the most sub-nodes

Question 5

A tornado diagram in quantitative risk analysis is primarily used to display what?

Accepted Answer

The relative sensitivity of an outcome to individual risk variables

Answer

The chronological order of risks

Answer

The total project budget over time

Answer

The probability distribution of a single task

Question 6

What is the main reason a project uses Monte Carlo simulation instead of a single deterministic estimate?

Accepted Answer

It models combined uncertainty to produce a range of probable outcomes

Answer

It guarantees the project will finish on budget

Answer

It eliminates the need for a risk register

Answer

It replaces qualitative risk analysis entirely

Question 7

When running a schedule risk simulation, which network paths are most likely to become critical under uncertainty?

Accepted Answer

Near-critical paths with high duration variability

Answer

Only the original critical path

Answer

Paths with the most milestones

Answer

Paths with zero total float by definition