Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Critical Thinking Appraisal Distinguishing Facts from Inferences 1

Question 1

A hospital records show that the average patient wait time in the emergency room increased from 45 minutes to 67 minutes over the past year. A hospital administrator concludes that the nursing staff is underperforming. Which statement best describes the administrator's conclusion?

Accepted Answer

It is an inference that goes beyond what the data actually shows.

Answer

The data only establishes that wait times increased; it does not identify nursing performance as the cause. The administrator is drawing a causal inference that is not supported by the recorded statistics alone — many other factors could explain the change.

Question 2

A traffic report states that the number of accidents on Highway 9 doubled in January compared to December. A commuter tells a friend, 'They must have removed the speed cameras on that stretch.' Which of the following is accurate?

Accepted Answer

The accident count is a verifiable fact; the camera explanation is an inference.

Answer

The doubled accident count comes from a traffic report and is a verifiable, recorded statistic. The commuter's explanation about speed cameras is an inference — a possible explanation for the trend that is not established by the reported data.

Question 3

A retailer's sales records show that store revenue dropped 20% in the month following a competitor's grand opening nearby. A regional manager states, 'Customers are clearly preferring our competitor's products.' The manager's statement is best described as:

Accepted Answer

An inference, because the revenue drop could have multiple explanations.

Answer

The 20% revenue drop is the observable fact. The manager's claim about customer preference is an inference — it is one possible explanation, but the data does not rule out other causes such as seasonal trends, pricing changes, or supply issues.

Question 4

A school district reports that 78% of its third-grade students met reading proficiency standards this year, up from 65% last year. A school board member announces, 'The new literacy curriculum we adopted is clearly working.' Which of the following correctly identifies the nature of these statements?

Accepted Answer

The percentage increase is a fact; the board member's announcement is an inference.

Answer

The proficiency percentages are recorded outcomes from standardized assessments and constitute verifiable facts. The board member's conclusion that the new curriculum caused the improvement is an inference — other variables such as teacher experience or student demographics could also account for the change.

Question 5

Weather station data shows that the city received 12 inches of rainfall in June, 40% above the monthly average. A local farmer states, 'This excess rain will guarantee a strong harvest this fall.' The farmer's statement is:

Accepted Answer

An inference, because many additional factors influence harvest outcomes.

Answer

The rainfall figure is an observable, recorded measurement. However, the farmer's claim about a guaranteed strong harvest is an inference — crop yields depend on many variables beyond rainfall, including temperature, pest activity, soil conditions, and timing of rain throughout the growing season.

Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Practice Test

Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Practice Test

Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Critical Thinking Appraisal Distinguishing Facts from Inferences 1