Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Assessing Probability of Inferences Questions and Answers 4

Question 1

A new medicine showed a 40% improvement rate versus 25% for placebo in a 500-patient trial. Inference: The medicine is effective.

Accepted Answer

Probably True

Answer

A meaningfully higher rate than placebo in a substantial sample suggests probable effectiveness, though additional trials would be needed for certainty.

Question 2

The library closes at 6 PM on weekdays and 4 PM on weekends. Today is Tuesday. Inference: The library is open at 5 PM today.

Accepted Answer

True

Answer

Tuesday is a weekday and the library closes at 6 PM, so it is definitively open at 5 PM.

Question 3

Ice cream sales and drowning rates both rise every summer. Inference: Eating ice cream causes drowning.

Accepted Answer

Probably False

Answer

Both trends are explained by hot weather driving people to swim and buy ice cream; there is no causal link between the two.

Question 4

A school's graduation rate rose from 75% to 88% after implementing a new tutoring program. Inference: The tutoring program helped improve the graduation rate.

Accepted Answer

Probably True

Answer

The correlation between the program's introduction and the improved rate, combined with a plausible mechanism, makes this inference probably true.

Question 5

Of 200 applicants, only those with a bachelor's degree were shortlisted. Tom does not have a bachelor's degree. Inference: Tom was not shortlisted.

Accepted Answer

True

Answer

A bachelor's degree was a necessary condition for shortlisting, and Tom lacks it, so he was definitively not shortlisted.

Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Practice Test

Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Practice Test

Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Assessing Probability of Inferences Questions and Answers 4