Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Assessing Probability of Inferences 3

Question 1

Statement: All employees who participated in the wellness program reported reduced stress levels. Inference: The wellness program is effective for all employees in the company.
How should this inference be rated?

Accepted Answer

Insufficient Data

Answer

Only participants reported outcomes; non-participants and self-selection bias mean we cannot generalize to all employees.

Question 2

Statement: When the speed limit on Highway 9 was lowered from 65 to 55 mph, the number of fatal accidents decreased by 25% the following year. Inference: Lowering speed limits reduces fatal accidents on that highway.
How should this inference be rated?

Accepted Answer

Probably True

Answer

The before-and-after data with a plausible mechanism (lower speed = reduced crash severity) makes this inference probably true.

Question 3

Statement: The company's stock price rose 20% the day its new product was announced. Inference: Investors believe the new product will be profitable.
How should this inference be rated?

Accepted Answer

Probably True

Answer

Stock price increases on announcement days typically reflect positive investor sentiment about future profitability.

Question 4

Statement: A survey of 50 residents in a town of 200,000 found that 80% preferred the new bus route. Inference: The majority of the town's residents prefer the new bus route.
How should this inference be rated?

Accepted Answer

Insufficient Data

Answer

A sample of 50 from 200,000 is far too small to reliably represent the entire town's preference.

Question 5

Statement: Every time sales staff received a bonus tied to customer satisfaction scores, those scores rose the next month. This pattern has held for 12 consecutive months. Inference: Bonuses tied to satisfaction scores improve those scores.
How should this inference be rated?

Accepted Answer

Probably True

Answer

Twelve consecutive months of the same pattern is strong evidence of a reliable relationship, making the inference probably true.

Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Practice Test

Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Practice Test

Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Assessing Probability of Inferences 3