Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Assessing Probability of Inferences Questions and Answers

Question 1

Statement: A company-wide memo announced that due to a 15% decrease in quarterly profits, all non-essential travel for employees is suspended indefinitely. The memo also stated that the company will be re-evaluating all departmental budgets in the coming weeks.

Inference: Some employees will likely be laid off.

Accepted Answer

INSUFFICIENT DATA

Answer

The statement of facts only mentions the suspension of non-essential travel and a re-evaluation of departmental budgets as responses to decreased profits. While layoffs are a possible outcome of budget re-evaluations and profit loss, the memo does not state or imply that this will happen. Therefore, there is not enough information to determine if the inference is likely true or false.

Question 2

Statement: Over the past five years, every new product launched by the technology company 'Innovate Inc.' has exceeded its first-year sales targets by at least 20%. The company is launching a new smartphone, the 'VisionPro X', next month, which has received positive early reviews from tech bloggers.

Inference: The VisionPro X will exceed its first-year sales target.

Accepted Answer

PROBABLY TRUE

Answer

Given the company's consistent five-year track record of successful product launches and the positive early reviews for the new product, it is highly probable that the VisionPro X will also exceed its sales targets. However, it is not absolutely certain, as unforeseen market factors could arise. Therefore, the inference is 'Probably True'.

Question 3

Statement: A study of 1,000 adults found a positive correlation between the number of books read per year and annual income. The study controlled for age and level of education.

Inference: Reading more books causes an increase in annual income.

Accepted Answer

FALSE

Answer

The statement explicitly says there is a 'correlation,' not a 'causation.' A correlation means two variables are related, but it does not mean one causes the other. Another factor could cause both, or the relationship could be coincidental. The inference makes a definitive claim of causation, which is a misinterpretation of the facts provided.

Question 4

Statement: All members of the finance committee at a large corporation are required to have a certification in public accounting (CPA). Sarah is a senior executive at this corporation but is not on the finance committee.

Inference: Sarah does not have a CPA.

Accepted Answer

INSUFFICIENT DATA

Answer

The statement tells us that having a CPA is a requirement to be *on* the finance committee. It does not state that only members of the finance committee can have a CPA. Sarah could have a CPA and simply not be on that specific committee. We have no information about her qualifications, so there is insufficient data to make a judgment.

Question 5

Statement: In a local election, Candidate A received 45% of the vote, Candidate B received 43%, and Candidate C received 12%. All votes have been counted.

Inference: Candidate A is the new mayor.

Accepted Answer

INSUFFICIENT DATA

Answer

While Candidate A received the most votes (a plurality), we do not know the rules of the election. Many elections require a candidate to receive more than 50% of the vote to win outright. If no candidate reaches this threshold, a runoff election between the top two candidates might be required. Without knowing the specific election rules, we cannot conclude that Candidate A is the winner.

Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Practice Test

Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Practice Test

Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Assessing Probability of Inferences Questions and Answers