Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Assessing Probability of Inferences Questions and Answers 2

Question 1

Statement: 'The hospital's emergency department reported a 35% increase in admissions last winter.' Inference: 'There was an unusually severe flu season last winter.' How should this inference be rated?

Accepted Answer

Probably true — a flu outbreak is a plausible and common explanation but other factors could contribute.

Answer

Definitely true — the increase must be caused by flu.

Answer

Insufficient data — no conclusion about causes can be drawn.

Answer

Probably false — emergency departments grow in winter for unrelated reasons.

Question 2

Statement: 'Since the new coffee shop opened near the office, the number of employees arriving late has doubled.' Inference: 'Employees are stopping at the coffee shop and losing track of time.' How should this inference be rated?

Accepted Answer

Probably true — the coffee shop is a plausible reason but other causes could exist.

Answer

Definitely true — the timing proves the coffee shop is causing lateness.

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Definitely false — employees would not risk their jobs for coffee.

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Insufficient data — the statement gives no information about why employees are late.

Question 3

Statement: 'The marketing department's budget was cut by 40% this quarter, and the company spent the savings on expanding its IT infrastructure.' Inference: 'The company believes technology investment will improve its competitive position more than marketing.' How should this inference be rated?

Accepted Answer

Probably true — the reallocation suggests prioritizing IT over marketing, though the specific belief is inferred.

Answer

Definitely true — reallocating money to IT proves that belief.

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Insufficient data — budget decisions reveal nothing about company beliefs.

Answer

Probably false — marketing cuts are usually cost-saving measures, not strategic shifts.

Question 4

Statement: 'A survey of 500 customers found that 78% preferred the new product packaging over the old design.' Inference: 'The company will adopt the new packaging for all product lines.' How should this inference be rated?

Accepted Answer

Probably true — high preference makes adoption likely but business factors could intervene.

Answer

Definitely true — strong consumer preference always dictates packaging decisions.

Answer

Insufficient data — the survey alone cannot predict company decisions.

Answer

Definitely false — companies rarely change all product lines at once.

Question 5

Statement: 'The regional office closed after the company reported its worst financial quarter in a decade.' Inference: 'The regional office was closed because of poor financial performance.' How should this inference be rated?

Accepted Answer

Probably true — poor financials make cost-cutting closures a likely cause.

Answer

Definitely true — office closures always follow financial losses.

Answer

Definitely false — office closures are strategic decisions unrelated to finances.

Answer

Insufficient data — no causal link between financial results and the closure is stated.

Question 6

Statement: 'The number of registered electric vehicles in the country tripled over the last three years, while the number of new petrol vehicle registrations declined by 22%.' Inference: 'Consumer preference is shifting significantly from petrol to electric vehicles.' How should this inference be rated?

Accepted Answer

Probably true — the data strongly suggests a shift in consumer preference, though other factors may contribute.

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Definitely true — a triple increase and 22% decline prove a preference shift.

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Insufficient data — registration numbers do not reflect consumer preferences.

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Probably false — electric vehicles are still a minority of total registrations.