HBRI Critical Evaluation of Arguments 3

Question 1

Which of the following most accurately describes a 'strong' inductive argument?

Accepted Answer

One whose premises, if true, make the conclusion highly probable but not certain

Answer

Inductive arguments establish probability, not certainty; a strong one makes the conclusion very likely given true premises.

Question 2

An operations leader presents data showing that plant downtime fell 30% after installing new equipment. A skeptic asks: 'Were there any other changes during that period?' The skeptic is trying to identify:

Accepted Answer

Potential confounding variables that could alternatively explain the downtime reduction

Answer

Confounding variables are factors other than the one being studied that could explain the observed outcome, undermining causal claims.

Question 3

A finance team argues: 'We should not enter the European market because one competitor failed there last year.' What is the primary logical weakness?

Accepted Answer

The argument draws a general conclusion from a single, possibly unrepresentative case

Answer

Generalizing from one data point (one competitor's failure) is a hasty generalization fallacy; many other companies may succeed there.

Question 4

Which approach best demonstrates critical evaluation rather than acceptance of a business proposal?

Accepted Answer

Asking for the assumptions underlying the projected ROI and requesting sensitivity analysis

Answer

Challenging the assumptions and stress-testing the projections reflects rigorous critical evaluation of the argument's foundations.

Question 5

A supply chain manager concludes from three months of data that a new routing algorithm reduces delivery time by 15%. What would most increase confidence in this conclusion?

Accepted Answer

Replicating the result across multiple regions over 12 months with a control group using the old algorithm

Answer

Longer observation periods, geographic replication, and a control group reduce the chance that the result is a statistical artifact or caused by external factors.

HBRI - Hogan Business Reasoning Inventory Practice Test

HBRI - Hogan Business Reasoning Inventory Practice Test

HBRI Critical Evaluation of Arguments 3