Evidence-Based Reading Flashcards

‘CRISIS OF CONFIDENCE’ SPEECH BY JIMMY CARTER The erosion of our confidence in the future is threatening to destroy the social and the political fabric of America. The confidence that we have always had as a people is not simply some romantic dream or a proverb in a dusty book that we read just on the Fourth of July. It is the idea which founded our nation and has guided our development as a people. Confidence in the future has supported everything else ­­ public institutions and private enterprise, our own families, and the very Constitution of the United States. Confidence has defined our course and has served as a link between generations. We’ve always believed in something called progress. We’ve always had a faith that the days of our children would be better than our own. Our people are losing that faith, not only in government itself but in the ability as citizens to serve as the ultimate rulers and shapers of our democracy. As a people we know our past and we are proud of it. Our progress has been part of the living history of America, even the world. We always believed that we were part of a great movement of humanity itself called democracy, involved in the search for freedom; and that belief has always strengthened us in our purpose. But just as we are losing our confidence in the future, we are also beginning to close the door on our past. In a nation that was proud of hard work, strong families, close­knit communities, and our faith in God, too many of us now tend to worship self­indulgence and consumption. Human identity is no longer defined by what one does, but by what one owns. But we’ve discovered that owning things and consuming things does not satisfy our longing for meaning. We’ve learned that piling up material goods cannot fill the emptiness of lives which have no confidence or purpose. The symptoms of this crisis of the American spirit are all around us. For the first time in the history of our country a majority of our people believe that the next five years will be worse than the past five years. Two­thirds of our people do not even vote. The productivity of American workers is actually dropping, and the willingness of Americans to save for the future has fallen below that of all other people in the Western world. As you know, there is a growing disrespect for government and for churches and for schools, the news media, and other institutions. This is not a message of happiness or reassurance, but it is the truth and it is a warning. These changes did not happen overnight. They’ve come upon us gradually over the last generation, years that were filled with shocks and tragedy. We were sure that ours was a nation of the ballot, not the bullet, until the murders of John Kennedy and Robert Kennedy and Martin Luther King, Jr. We were taught that our armies were always invincible and our causes were always just, only to suffer the agony of Vietnam. We respected the Presidency as a place of honor until the shock of Watergate. We remember when the phrase “sound as a dollar” was an expression of absolute dependability, until ten years of inflation began to shrink our dollar and our savings. We believed that our nation’s resources were limitless until 1973 when we had to face a growing dependence on foreign oil. These wounds are still very deep. They have never been healed. Based on the information in this passage, President Carter is trying to accomplish all the following except:

Answer: Restore American confidence in the Democratic Party

President Carter's 'Crisis of Confidence' speech focuses on a national spiritual and moral decline, using inclusive language like 'our people' and 'America' throughout. While he aims to restore faith in government and citizens' abilities, and warns about the nation's direction, he never mentions or advocates for the Democratic Party. His address is a non-partisan call for national introspection and renewal, not a political endorsement.

‘CRISIS OF CONFIDENCE’ SPEECH BY JIMMY CARTER The erosion of our confidence in the future is threatening to destroy the social and the political fabric of America. The confidence that we have always had as a people is not simply some romantic dream or a proverb in a dusty book that we read just on the Fourth of July. It is the idea which founded our nation and has guided our development as a people. Confidence in the future has supported everything else ­­ public institutions and private enterprise, our own families, and the very Constitution of the United States. Confidence has defined our course and has served as a link between generations. We’ve always believed in something called progress. We’ve always had a faith that the days of our children would be better than our own. Our people are losing that faith, not only in government itself but in the ability as citizens to serve as the ultimate rulers and shapers of our democracy. As a people we know our past and we are proud of it. Our progress has been part of the living history of America, even the world. We always believed that we were part of a great movement of humanity itself called democracy, involved in the search for freedom; and that belief has always strengthened us in our purpose. But just as we are losing our confidence in the future, we are also beginning to close the door on our past. In a nation that was proud of hard work, strong families, close­knit communities, and our faith in God, too many of us now tend to worship self­indulgence and consumption. Human identity is no longer defined by what one does, but by what one owns. But we’ve discovered that owning things and consuming things does not satisfy our longing for meaning. We’ve learned that piling up material goods cannot fill the emptiness of lives which have no confidence or purpose. The symptoms of this crisis of the American spirit are all around us. For the first time in the history of our country a majority of our people believe that the next five years will be worse than the past five years. Two­thirds of our people do not even vote. The productivity of American workers is actually dropping, and the willingness of Americans to save for the future has fallen below that of all other people in the Western world. As you know, there is a growing disrespect for government and for churches and for schools, the news media, and other institutions. This is not a message of happiness or reassurance, but it is the truth and it is a warning. These changes did not happen overnight. They’ve come upon us gradually over the last generation, years that were filled with shocks and tragedy. We were sure that ours was a nation of the ballot, not the bullet, until the murders of John Kennedy and Robert Kennedy and Martin Luther King, Jr. We were taught that our armies were always invincible and our causes were always just, only to suffer the agony of Vietnam. We respected the Presidency as a place of honor until the shock of Watergate. We remember when the phrase “sound as a dollar” was an expression of absolute dependability, until ten years of inflation began to shrink our dollar and our savings. We believed that our nation’s resources were limitless until 1973 when we had to face a growing dependence on foreign oil. These wounds are still very deep. They have never been healed. The principal rhetorical effect of the phrase in paragraph 15 (we respected ... Watergate) is to

Answer: Send a message that their anger and betrayal they feel towards government is noted and justified, and that government should start once again being for the people

By stating, 'We respected the Presidency as a place of honor until the shock of Watergate,' President Carter acknowledges and validates the public's widespread disillusionment and sense of betrayal regarding government. This rhetorical move shows empathy for the American people's eroded trust, signaling that he understands their grievances are justified. It implicitly sets the stage for his call to restore integrity and a government that serves its citizens, aiming to bridge the gap between the people and their institutions.

‘CRISIS OF CONFIDENCE’ SPEECH BY JIMMY CARTER The erosion of our confidence in the future is threatening to destroy the social and the political fabric of America. The confidence that we have always had as a people is not simply some romantic dream or a proverb in a dusty book that we read just on the Fourth of July. It is the idea which founded our nation and has guided our development as a people. Confidence in the future has supported everything else ­­ public institutions and private enterprise, our own families, and the very Constitution of the United States. Confidence has defined our course and has served as a link between generations. We’ve always believed in something called progress. We’ve always had a faith that the days of our children would be better than our own. Our people are losing that faith, not only in government itself but in the ability as citizens to serve as the ultimate rulers and shapers of our democracy. As a people we know our past and we are proud of it. Our progress has been part of the living history of America, even the world. We always believed that we were part of a great movement of humanity itself called democracy, involved in the search for freedom; and that belief has always strengthened us in our purpose. But just as we are losing our confidence in the future, we are also beginning to close the door on our past. In a nation that was proud of hard work, strong families, close­knit communities, and our faith in God, too many of us now tend to worship self­indulgence and consumption. Human identity is no longer defined by what one does, but by what one owns. But we’ve discovered that owning things and consuming things does not satisfy our longing for meaning. We’ve learned that piling up material goods cannot fill the emptiness of lives which have no confidence or purpose. The symptoms of this crisis of the American spirit are all around us. For the first time in the history of our country a majority of our people believe that the next five years will be worse than the past five years. Two­thirds of our people do not even vote. The productivity of American workers is actually dropping, and the willingness of Americans to save for the future has fallen below that of all other people in the Western world. As you know, there is a growing disrespect for government and for churches and for schools, the news media, and other institutions. This is not a message of happiness or reassurance, but it is the truth and it is a warning. These changes did not happen overnight. They’ve come upon us gradually over the last generation, years that were filled with shocks and tragedy. We were sure that ours was a nation of the ballot, not the bullet, until the murders of John Kennedy and Robert Kennedy and Martin Luther King, Jr. We were taught that our armies were always invincible and our causes were always just, only to suffer the agony of Vietnam. We respected the Presidency as a place of honor until the shock of Watergate. We remember when the phrase “sound as a dollar” was an expression of absolute dependability, until ten years of inflation began to shrink our dollar and our savings. We believed that our nation’s resources were limitless until 1973 when we had to face a growing dependence on foreign oil. These wounds are still very deep. They have never been healed. Which choice provides the best evidence for the answer to the previous question?

Answer: Paragraph 14

Paragraph 14 provides crucial context by listing other national traumas—the assassinations of the Kennedys and Martin Luther King Jr., and the 'agony of Vietnam'—that preceded and contributed to the loss of faith in American institutions. This enumeration of deeply felt national wounds, immediately before mentioning Watergate, establishes a pattern of acknowledging the public's justified disillusionment. It demonstrates Carter's strategy of validating their anger and betrayal by recognizing the historical events that caused it, thereby setting the stage for his call to rebuild trust.

‘CRISIS OF CONFIDENCE’ SPEECH BY JIMMY CARTER The erosion of our confidence in the future is threatening to destroy the social and the political fabric of America. The confidence that we have always had as a people is not simply some romantic dream or a proverb in a dusty book that we read just on the Fourth of July. It is the idea which founded our nation and has guided our development as a people. Confidence in the future has supported everything else ­­ public institutions and private enterprise, our own families, and the very Constitution of the United States. Confidence has defined our course and has served as a link between generations. We’ve always believed in something called progress. We’ve always had a faith that the days of our children would be better than our own. Our people are losing that faith, not only in government itself but in the ability as citizens to serve as the ultimate rulers and shapers of our democracy. As a people we know our past and we are proud of it. Our progress has been part of the living history of America, even the world. We always believed that we were part of a great movement of humanity itself called democracy, involved in the search for freedom; and that belief has always strengthened us in our purpose. But just as we are losing our confidence in the future, we are also beginning to close the door on our past. In a nation that was proud of hard work, strong families, close­knit communities, and our faith in God, too many of us now tend to worship self­indulgence and consumption. Human identity is no longer defined by what one does, but by what one owns. But we’ve discovered that owning things and consuming things does not satisfy our longing for meaning. We’ve learned that piling up material goods cannot fill the emptiness of lives which have no confidence or purpose. The symptoms of this crisis of the American spirit are all around us. For the first time in the history of our country a majority of our people believe that the next five years will be worse than the past five years. Two­thirds of our people do not even vote. The productivity of American workers is actually dropping, and the willingness of Americans to save for the future has fallen below that of all other people in the Western world. As you know, there is a growing disrespect for government and for churches and for schools, the news media, and other institutions. This is not a message of happiness or reassurance, but it is the truth and it is a warning. These changes did not happen overnight. They’ve come upon us gradually over the last generation, years that were filled with shocks and tragedy. We were sure that ours was a nation of the ballot, not the bullet, until the murders of John Kennedy and Robert Kennedy and Martin Luther King, Jr. We were taught that our armies were always invincible and our causes were always just, only to suffer the agony of Vietnam. We respected the Presidency as a place of honor until the shock of Watergate. We remember when the phrase “sound as a dollar” was an expression of absolute dependability, until ten years of inflation began to shrink our dollar and our savings. We believed that our nation’s resources were limitless until 1973 when we had to face a growing dependence on foreign oil. These wounds are still very deep. They have never been healed. Pres. Carter's attitude in pargraph 8 toward Americans with "too many of us now tend to worship self-indulgence and consumption" can be described as

Answer: Self aware

In paragraph 8, Carter uses the inclusive phrase 'too many of *us* now tend to worship self-indulgence and consumption.' By including himself and the audience in the 'us,' he demonstrates a self-aware attitude, acknowledging that this societal shift is a collective issue rather than solely blaming a specific group. This approach fosters a sense of shared responsibility and introspection, rather than a divisive or accusatory tone.

‘CRISIS OF CONFIDENCE’ SPEECH BY JIMMY CARTER The erosion of our confidence in the future is threatening to destroy the social and the political fabric of America. The confidence that we have always had as a people is not simply some romantic dream or a proverb in a dusty book that we read just on the Fourth of July. It is the idea which founded our nation and has guided our development as a people. Confidence in the future has supported everything else ­­ public institutions and private enterprise, our own families, and the very Constitution of the United States. Confidence has defined our course and has served as a link between generations. We’ve always believed in something called progress. We’ve always had a faith that the days of our children would be better than our own. Our people are losing that faith, not only in government itself but in the ability as citizens to serve as the ultimate rulers and shapers of our democracy. As a people we know our past and we are proud of it. Our progress has been part of the living history of America, even the world. We always believed that we were part of a great movement of humanity itself called democracy, involved in the search for freedom; and that belief has always strengthened us in our purpose. But just as we are losing our confidence in the future, we are also beginning to close the door on our past. In a nation that was proud of hard work, strong families, close­knit communities, and our faith in God, too many of us now tend to worship self­indulgence and consumption. Human identity is no longer defined by what one does, but by what one owns. But we’ve discovered that owning things and consuming things does not satisfy our longing for meaning. We’ve learned that piling up material goods cannot fill the emptiness of lives which have no confidence or purpose. The symptoms of this crisis of the American spirit are all around us. For the first time in the history of our country a majority of our people believe that the next five years will be worse than the past five years. Two­thirds of our people do not even vote. The productivity of American workers is actually dropping, and the willingness of Americans to save for the future has fallen below that of all other people in the Western world. As you know, there is a growing disrespect for government and for churches and for schools, the news media, and other institutions. This is not a message of happiness or reassurance, but it is the truth and it is a warning. These changes did not happen overnight. They’ve come upon us gradually over the last generation, years that were filled with shocks and tragedy. We were sure that ours was a nation of the ballot, not the bullet, until the murders of John Kennedy and Robert Kennedy and Martin Luther King, Jr. We were taught that our armies were always invincible and our causes were always just, only to suffer the agony of Vietnam. We respected the Presidency as a place of honor until the shock of Watergate. We remember when the phrase “sound as a dollar” was an expression of absolute dependability, until ten years of inflation began to shrink our dollar and our savings. We believed that our nation’s resources were limitless until 1973 when we had to face a growing dependence on foreign oil. These wounds are still very deep. They have never been healed. As used in paragraph 1,"erosion" most nearly means

Answer: Deterioration

In paragraph 1, 'erosion' refers to the gradual wearing away or weakening of confidence. This process of decline is best captured by 'deterioration,' which means becoming progressively worse or falling apart. The sentence implies that this gradual loss of confidence is actively threatening to destroy the nation's social and political structure, aligning with the idea of a worsening state.

Published by Nasa'Hiatus in rise of Earth's surface air temperature likely temporary' Between 1998 and 2012, climate scientists observed a slowdown in the rate at which the Earth's surface air temperature was rising. While the rise in global mean surface air temperature has continued, between 1998 and 2012 the increase was approximately one third of that from 1951 to 2012. This trend — referred to as a "global warming hiatus" — has sparked a lot of debate and given rise to a reasonable question: Is global warming coming to a halt? According to Norman Loeb, an atmospheric scientist at NASA's Langley Research Center in Hampton, Virginia, and the principal investigator of a space-borne sensor called the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System, or CERES, the answer is almost certainly no. "Heating is still going on," he said. "It's just not in terms of the surface air temperature." Loeb explained the science behind that statement Tuesday, Aug. 5, during a talk at NASA Langley titled "The Recent Pause in Global Warming: A Temporary Blip or Something More Permanent?" Though Loeb believes there are a handful of short-term factors that drive changes in surface air temperature, like the El Niño and La Niña phenomena that cause temperature fluctuations in the tropical eastern Pacific approximately every two years, he thinks there is a longer term factor that is a significant and overlooked contributor. "The Pacific Decadal Oscillation affects surface temperature," Loeb said. "It's a pattern of temperature shifts, primarily over the Pacific, that occurs about every 20 or 30 years." Historically, those shifts have coincided with changes in surface temperature. "The Pacific Decadal Oscillation has a very distinctive pattern. During the positive phase, surface temperature rises more rapidly," he said. "During the negative phase, the rate of temperature increase slows down, hence a hiatus. It's very compelling when you see the actual observations." Loeb showed measurements during his talk demonstrating steady increases in surface air temperature from 1920 to 1940 and again from 1976 to 2000, periods when the decadal oscillation was in a positive phase. From 1940 to 1975, and again beginning in 2001, temperatures leveled out in concert with negative oscillation phases. Surface air temperatures have increased by approximately 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit since the early 20th century. On this timescale, the hiatuses look like short ledges along a graph of global average surface air temperature with an otherwise steep upward slope. "You can't just look at short periods of time," Loeb said. "You have to look at the record over a long period of time to see the pattern. There will be natural fluctuations at shorter time scales, but we really shouldn't conclude that that's a change and global warming is going away." Even as surface air temperatures are currently holding relatively steady, Loeb believes there's still another issue to take into consideration. "Observations are showing us the planet is still taking up heat, but it is just showing up in a different place," he said. That different place is the ocean. In other words, as humans and nature continue to apply pressure to the Earth's climate through increases in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, temperatures are still rising. But as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation briefly tames temperatures at the planet's surface, the oceans are where the real heating is happening. "If you add extra heat to the Earth system, approximately 93 percent of that extra heat ends up stored in the ocean, and the ocean is very deep," Loeb said. "When we look at air temperature, we are just looking at the surface. There's a whole deep ocean where heat can be stored." Scientists are studying ocean temperatures with instruments known as “Argo floats.” These instruments drift freely throughout the world’s oceans, collecting temperature and salinity measurements to a depth of around 6000 feet. The floats rise to the surface and transmit their data to a satellite every 10 days. Currently, more than 3,600 Argo floats distributed in the planet's oceans show that the oceans are taking up heat over time, according to Loeb. Combine that with data from NASA's CERES sensor, which shows the rate of heat uptake by the whole planet is nearly constant, and it becomes clear that the planet is still warming, even as the increase in surface air temperatures lull temporarily. "Heat can be redistributed," Loeb said of the energy. "Changes in the circulation patterns in the ocean and atmosphere will result in redistribution of the heat — and that is what is going on during the different phases of this [Pacific Decadal Oscillation]." Loeb and the overwhelming majority of his fellow climate scientists argue that as humans continue to pump carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere at unprecedented rates — atmospheric carbon dioxide measurements hit 400 parts per million in May 2013 — climate change will continue. Current estimates have global average surface air temperatures rising anywhere from approximately 3 to 8.5 degrees Fahrenheit by the year 2100, depending on how much carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are added to the atmosphere and accounting for uncertainty in predictions. But even given the scientific evidence that points toward definite warming, and data that shows that the last three decades have been the hottest on record, each one a little bit warmer than the last, Loeb encourages the scientific community to improve its observations and models of the climate system, and to discuss the science objectively and rationally. "It’s okay to be skeptical," he said. "Scientists are skeptical by nature. But at the same time, we need to be reasonable.” Based on the information in the passage it can be reasonably inferred that:

Answer: Global warming is no longer happening but the change is temporary

The passage explicitly states that there has been a 'slowdown in the rate' of surface air temperature rise, referred to as a 'global warming hiatus.' However, the author, Norman Loeb, clarifies that 'Heating is still going on,' just not primarily at the surface, and emphasizes that this pause is a 'temporary blip.' He concludes that we 'shouldn't conclude that that's a change and global warming is going away,' indicating the warming trend continues despite temporary surface fluctuations.

'Hiatus in rise of Earth's surface air temperature likely temporary' Between 1998 and 2012, climate scientists observed a slowdown in the rate at which the Earth's surface air temperature was rising. While the rise in global mean surface air temperature has continued, between 1998 and 2012 the increase was approximately one third of that from 1951 to 2012. This trend — referred to as a "global warming hiatus" — has sparked a lot of debate and given rise to a reasonable question: Is global warming coming to a halt? According to Norman Loeb, an atmospheric scientist at NASA's Langley Research Center in Hampton, Virginia, and the principal investigator of a space-borne sensor called the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System, or CERES, the answer is almost certainly no. "Heating is still going on," he said. "It's just not in terms of the surface air temperature." Loeb explained the science behind that statement Tuesday, Aug. 5, during a talk at NASA Langley titled "The Recent Pause in Global Warming: A Temporary Blip or Something More Permanent?" Though Loeb believes there are a handful of short-term factors that drive changes in surface air temperature, like the El Niño and La Niña phenomena that cause temperature fluctuations in the tropical eastern Pacific approximately every two years, he thinks there is a longer term factor that is a significant and overlooked contributor. "The Pacific Decadal Oscillation affects surface temperature," Loeb said. "It's a pattern of temperature shifts, primarily over the Pacific, that occurs about every 20 or 30 years." Historically, those shifts have coincided with changes in surface temperature. "The Pacific Decadal Oscillation has a very distinctive pattern. During the positive phase, surface temperature rises more rapidly," he said. "During the negative phase, the rate of temperature increase slows down, hence a hiatus. It's very compelling when you see the actual observations." Loeb showed measurements during his talk demonstrating steady increases in surface air temperature from 1920 to 1940 and again from 1976 to 2000, periods when the decadal oscillation was in a positive phase. From 1940 to 1975, and again beginning in 2001, temperatures leveled out in concert with negative oscillation phases. Surface air temperatures have increased by approximately 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit since the early 20th century. On this timescale, the hiatuses look like short ledges along a graph of global average surface air temperature with an otherwise steep upward slope. "You can't just look at short periods of time," Loeb said. "You have to look at the record over a long period of time to see the pattern. There will be natural fluctuations at shorter time scales, but we really shouldn't conclude that that's a change and global warming is going away." Even as surface air temperatures are currently holding relatively steady, Loeb believes there's still another issue to take into consideration. "Observations are showing us the planet is still taking up heat, but it is just showing up in a different place," he said. That different place is the ocean. In other words, as humans and nature continue to apply pressure to the Earth's climate through increases in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, temperatures are still rising. But as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation briefly tames temperatures at the planet's surface, the oceans are where the real heating is happening. "If you add extra heat to the Earth system, approximately 93 percent of that extra heat ends up stored in the ocean, and the ocean is very deep," Loeb said. "When we look at air temperature, we are just looking at the surface. There's a whole deep ocean where heat can be stored." Scientists are studying ocean temperatures with instruments known as “Argo floats.” These instruments drift freely throughout the world’s oceans, collecting temperature and salinity measurements to a depth of around 6000 feet. The floats rise to the surface and transmit their data to a satellite every 10 days. Currently, more than 3,600 Argo floats distributed in the planet's oceans show that the oceans are taking up heat over time, according to Loeb. Combine that with data from NASA's CERES sensor, which shows the rate of heat uptake by the whole planet is nearly constant, and it becomes clear that the planet is still warming, even as the increase in surface air temperatures lull temporarily. "Heat can be redistributed," Loeb said of the energy. "Changes in the circulation patterns in the ocean and atmosphere will result in redistribution of the heat — and that is what is going on during the different phases of this [Pacific Decadal Oscillation]." Loeb and the overwhelming majority of his fellow climate scientists argue that as humans continue to pump carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere at unprecedented rates — atmospheric carbon dioxide measurements hit 400 parts per million in May 2013 — climate change will continue. Current estimates have global average surface air temperatures rising anywhere from approximately 3 to 8.5 degrees Fahrenheit by the year 2100, depending on how much carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are added to the atmosphere and accounting for uncertainty in predictions. But even given the scientific evidence that points toward definite warming, and data that shows that the last three decades have been the hottest on record, each one a little bit warmer than the last, Loeb encourages the scientific community to improve its observations and models of the climate system, and to discuss the science objectively and rationally. "It’s okay to be skeptical," he said. "Scientists are skeptical by nature. But at the same time, we need to be reasonable.” In the ninth paragraph, which of the following is true, according to the author, regarding the Pacific Decadal Oscillation?

Answer: It changes temperatures over time and is characterized by positive and negative phases where temperatures increase, then slow down.

Paragraph 9 clearly states that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation has distinct 'positive' and 'negative' phases. During the positive phase, surface temperatures 'rise more rapidly,' while during the negative phase, the 'rate of temperature increase slows down,' leading to a 'hiatus.' This directly describes a pattern of temperature changes characterized by periods of faster increase and periods of slowing increase.

'Hiatus in rise of Earth's surface air temperature likely temporary' Between 1998 and 2012, climate scientists observed a slowdown in the rate at which the Earth's surface air temperature was rising. While the rise in global mean surface air temperature has continued, between 1998 and 2012 the increase was approximately one third of that from 1951 to 2012. This trend — referred to as a "global warming hiatus" — has sparked a lot of debate and given rise to a reasonable question: Is global warming coming to a halt? According to Norman Loeb, an atmospheric scientist at NASA's Langley Research Center in Hampton, Virginia, and the principal investigator of a space-borne sensor called the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System, or CERES, the answer is almost certainly no. "Heating is still going on," he said. "It's just not in terms of the surface air temperature." Loeb explained the science behind that statement Tuesday, Aug. 5, during a talk at NASA Langley titled "The Recent Pause in Global Warming: A Temporary Blip or Something More Permanent?" Though Loeb believes there are a handful of short-term factors that drive changes in surface air temperature, like the El Niño and La Niña phenomena that cause temperature fluctuations in the tropical eastern Pacific approximately every two years, he thinks there is a longer term factor that is a significant and overlooked contributor. "The Pacific Decadal Oscillation affects surface temperature," Loeb said. "It's a pattern of temperature shifts, primarily over the Pacific, that occurs about every 20 or 30 years." Historically, those shifts have coincided with changes in surface temperature. "The Pacific Decadal Oscillation has a very distinctive pattern. During the positive phase, surface temperature rises more rapidly," he said. "During the negative phase, the rate of temperature increase slows down, hence a hiatus. It's very compelling when you see the actual observations." Loeb showed measurements during his talk demonstrating steady increases in surface air temperature from 1920 to 1940 and again from 1976 to 2000, periods when the decadal oscillation was in a positive phase. From 1940 to 1975, and again beginning in 2001, temperatures leveled out in concert with negative oscillation phases. Surface air temperatures have increased by approximately 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit since the early 20th century. On this timescale, the hiatuses look like short ledges along a graph of global average surface air temperature with an otherwise steep upward slope. "You can't just look at short periods of time," Loeb said. "You have to look at the record over a long period of time to see the pattern. There will be natural fluctuations at shorter time scales, but we really shouldn't conclude that that's a change and global warming is going away." Even as surface air temperatures are currently holding relatively steady, Loeb believes there's still another issue to take into consideration. "Observations are showing us the planet is still taking up heat, but it is just showing up in a different place," he said. That different place is the ocean. In other words, as humans and nature continue to apply pressure to the Earth's climate through increases in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, temperatures are still rising. But as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation briefly tames temperatures at the planet's surface, the oceans are where the real heating is happening. "If you add extra heat to the Earth system, approximately 93 percent of that extra heat ends up stored in the ocean, and the ocean is very deep," Loeb said. "When we look at air temperature, we are just looking at the surface. There's a whole deep ocean where heat can be stored." Scientists are studying ocean temperatures with instruments known as “Argo floats.” These instruments drift freely throughout the world’s oceans, collecting temperature and salinity measurements to a depth of around 6000 feet. The floats rise to the surface and transmit their data to a satellite every 10 days. Currently, more than 3,600 Argo floats distributed in the planet's oceans show that the oceans are taking up heat over time, according to Loeb. Combine that with data from NASA's CERES sensor, which shows the rate of heat uptake by the whole planet is nearly constant, and it becomes clear that the planet is still warming, even as the increase in surface air temperatures lull temporarily. "Heat can be redistributed," Loeb said of the energy. "Changes in the circulation patterns in the ocean and atmosphere will result in redistribution of the heat — and that is what is going on during the different phases of this [Pacific Decadal Oscillation]." Loeb and the overwhelming majority of his fellow climate scientists argue that as humans continue to pump carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere at unprecedented rates — atmospheric carbon dioxide measurements hit 400 parts per million in May 2013 — climate change will continue. Current estimates have global average surface air temperatures rising anywhere from approximately 3 to 8.5 degrees Fahrenheit by the year 2100, depending on how much carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are added to the atmosphere and accounting for uncertainty in predictions. But even given the scientific evidence that points toward definite warming, and data that shows that the last three decades have been the hottest on record, each one a little bit warmer than the last, Loeb encourages the scientific community to improve its observations and models of the climate system, and to discuss the science objectively and rationally. "It’s okay to be skeptical," he said. "Scientists are skeptical by nature. But at the same time, we need to be reasonable.” In paragraph 12, what is the most likely reason that Loeb discourages against looking solely at short-term weather patterns?

Answer: The earth is billions of years old, and for there to be a trend, you need to know how the planet behaves in relation to its history and its stimulants.

In paragraph 12, Loeb argues that 'You have to look at the record over a long period of time to see the pattern' because 'There will be natural fluctuations at shorter time scales.' This means that short-term data can be misleading, as temporary natural variations might obscure the overarching, long-term climate trends. To accurately identify a significant trend like global warming, it's essential to consider the planet's behavior over its vast history and in response to various long-term factors, not just momentary shifts.

'Hiatus in rise of Earth's surface air temperature likely temporary' Between 1998 and 2012, climate scientists observed a slowdown in the rate at which the Earth's surface air temperature was rising. While the rise in global mean surface air temperature has continued, between 1998 and 2012 the increase was approximately one third of that from 1951 to 2012. This trend — referred to as a "global warming hiatus" — has sparked a lot of debate and given rise to a reasonable question: Is global warming coming to a halt? According to Norman Loeb, an atmospheric scientist at NASA's Langley Research Center in Hampton, Virginia, and the principal investigator of a space-borne sensor called the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System, or CERES, the answer is almost certainly no. "Heating is still going on," he said. "It's just not in terms of the surface air temperature." Loeb explained the science behind that statement Tuesday, Aug. 5, during a talk at NASA Langley titled "The Recent Pause in Global Warming: A Temporary Blip or Something More Permanent?" Though Loeb believes there are a handful of short-term factors that drive changes in surface air temperature, like the El Niño and La Niña phenomena that cause temperature fluctuations in the tropical eastern Pacific approximately every two years, he thinks there is a longer term factor that is a significant and overlooked contributor. "The Pacific Decadal Oscillation affects surface temperature," Loeb said. "It's a pattern of temperature shifts, primarily over the Pacific, that occurs about every 20 or 30 years." Historically, those shifts have coincided with changes in surface temperature. "The Pacific Decadal Oscillation has a very distinctive pattern. During the positive phase, surface temperature rises more rapidly," he said. "During the negative phase, the rate of temperature increase slows down, hence a hiatus. It's very compelling when you see the actual observations." Loeb showed measurements during his talk demonstrating steady increases in surface air temperature from 1920 to 1940 and again from 1976 to 2000, periods when the decadal oscillation was in a positive phase. From 1940 to 1975, and again beginning in 2001, temperatures leveled out in concert with negative oscillation phases. Surface air temperatures have increased by approximately 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit since the early 20th century. On this timescale, the hiatuses look like short ledges along a graph of global average surface air temperature with an otherwise steep upward slope. "You can't just look at short periods of time," Loeb said. "You have to look at the record over a long period of time to see the pattern. There will be natural fluctuations at shorter time scales, but we really shouldn't conclude that that's a change and global warming is going away." Even as surface air temperatures are currently holding relatively steady, Loeb believes there's still another issue to take into consideration. "Observations are showing us the planet is still taking up heat, but it is just showing up in a different place," he said. That different place is the ocean. In other words, as humans and nature continue to apply pressure to the Earth's climate through increases in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, temperatures are still rising. But as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation briefly tames temperatures at the planet's surface, the oceans are where the real heating is happening. "If you add extra heat to the Earth system, approximately 93 percent of that extra heat ends up stored in the ocean, and the ocean is very deep," Loeb said. "When we look at air temperature, we are just looking at the surface. There's a whole deep ocean where heat can be stored." Scientists are studying ocean temperatures with instruments known as “Argo floats.” These instruments drift freely throughout the world’s oceans, collecting temperature and salinity measurements to a depth of around 6000 feet. The floats rise to the surface and transmit their data to a satellite every 10 days. Currently, more than 3,600 Argo floats distributed in the planet's oceans show that the oceans are taking up heat over time, according to Loeb. Combine that with data from NASA's CERES sensor, which shows the rate of heat uptake by the whole planet is nearly constant, and it becomes clear that the planet is still warming, even as the increase in surface air temperatures lull temporarily. "Heat can be redistributed," Loeb said of the energy. "Changes in the circulation patterns in the ocean and atmosphere will result in redistribution of the heat — and that is what is going on during the different phases of this [Pacific Decadal Oscillation]." Loeb and the overwhelming majority of his fellow climate scientists argue that as humans continue to pump carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere at unprecedented rates — atmospheric carbon dioxide measurements hit 400 parts per million in May 2013 — climate change will continue. Current estimates have global average surface air temperatures rising anywhere from approximately 3 to 8.5 degrees Fahrenheit by the year 2100, depending on how much carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are added to the atmosphere and accounting for uncertainty in predictions. But even given the scientific evidence that points toward definite warming, and data that shows that the last three decades have been the hottest on record, each one a little bit warmer than the last, Loeb encourages the scientific community to improve its observations and models of the climate system, and to discuss the science objectively and rationally. "It’s okay to be skeptical," he said. "Scientists are skeptical by nature. But at the same time, we need to be reasonable.” Which choice provides the best evidence for the previous question?

Answer: Paragraph 10

Paragraph 10 provides concrete historical data spanning decades, illustrating how surface air temperatures have fluctuated in distinct patterns (increases and plateaus) aligned with the positive and negative phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. This historical overview demonstrates the necessity of examining long-term records to understand underlying climate trends and natural cycles, rather than drawing conclusions from short-term observations that might represent temporary fluctuations within a larger pattern.