Mettl Critical Thinking 5 — Questions and Answers
Question 1: A quality control manager reviews defect data for six months and concludes that Fridays have the highest defect rate. The most critical next step before making policy changes is to:
- Immediately schedule fewer workers on Fridays.
- Determine whether the pattern is statistically significant or could be due to random variation. (Correct answer)
- Replace all Friday shift supervisors.
- Extend data collection for another six months before any analysis.
Correct answer: Determine whether the pattern is statistically significant or could be due to random variation.
Small samples or random fluctuation can create apparent patterns; statistical significance testing determines whether the pattern is real.
Question 2: Which of the following best represents an 'ad hominem' fallacy?
- Dismissing a climate report because the scientist who wrote it once declared bankruptcy (Correct answer)
- Rejecting a climate report because its methodology has known flaws
- Accepting a climate report because it aligns with established consensus
- Questioning a climate report because the funding source has a conflict of interest
Correct answer: Dismissing a climate report because the scientist who wrote it once declared bankruptcy
Ad hominem attacks the person rather than the argument; personal financial history is irrelevant to scientific methodology.
Question 3: Two employees interpret the same customer satisfaction data differently: one sees improvement, the other sees decline. The most likely reason is:
- One employee has more experience than the other.
- They are applying different benchmarks or time frames to the same data. (Correct answer)
- The data must contain errors.
- Customer satisfaction cannot be measured objectively.
Correct answer: They are applying different benchmarks or time frames to the same data.
Different reference points, time periods, or metrics can lead to conflicting valid interpretations of the same dataset.
Question 4: Which of the following is the best example of an 'if-then' conditional statement being used in a logically valid modus tollens form?
- If it rains, the ground is wet. The ground is wet. Therefore it rained.
- If it rains, the ground is wet. It did not rain. Therefore the ground is not wet.
- If it rains, the ground is wet. The ground is not wet. Therefore it did not rain. (Correct answer)
- If it rains, the ground is wet. It rained. Therefore the ground is wet.
Correct answer: If it rains, the ground is wet. The ground is not wet. Therefore it did not rain.
Modus tollens: 'If P then Q; not Q; therefore not P'—denying the consequent to deny the antecedent.
Question 5: A financial advisor recommends a fund solely because it had the highest returns over the past three years. A critical thinker would challenge this recommendation by noting:
- Past performance is not a reliable predictor of future returns. (Correct answer)
- Three years of high returns confirms long-term reliability.
- The advisor must have a conflict of interest.
- Only government bonds are truly safe.
Correct answer: Past performance is not a reliable predictor of future returns.
Extrapolating future performance from past results ignores regression to the mean and changing market conditions.
Question 6: When constructing a sound argument, which pair of properties must both be present?
- Validity and true premises (Correct answer)
- Complexity and emotional appeal
- Length and authoritative sources
- Popularity and internal consistency
Correct answer: Validity and true premises
A sound argument must be logically valid (correct structure) and have all true premises, ensuring the conclusion is also true.
Question 7: An operations team is told: 'If we don't upgrade the software now, the system will fail within a year.' The most critical thinker's immediate response is to ask:
- How much does the upgrade cost?
- What evidence supports the prediction that the system will fail, and how was that timeline estimated? (Correct answer)
- Which vendor is selling the upgrade?
- Can the upgrade be done over the weekend?
Correct answer: What evidence supports the prediction that the system will fail, and how was that timeline estimated?
Before accepting a dire prediction as justification for action, one must evaluate the evidence and reasoning behind it.
Mettl Critical Thinking 5
A quality control manager reviews defect data for six months and concludes that Fridays have the highest defect rate.
The most critical next step before making policy changes is to: