Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal — Questions and Answers

Question 1: Premise: All fruit in this basket is either an apple or an orange. Premise: This item from the basket is not an apple. Conclusion: This item is an orange. Is this conclusion valid?

The conclusion does not follow — there may be other fruit not mentioned.
The conclusion follows only if the item was randomly selected.
The conclusion does not follow — the item could be neither.
The conclusion follows — if it is not an apple and only apples and oranges are present, it must be an orange. (Correct answer)

Correct answer: The conclusion follows — if it is not an apple and only apples and oranges are present, it must be an orange.

The basket contains only apples and oranges; since the item is not an apple, it must be an orange.

Question 2: A survey of 500 hospital patients finds that 70% report poor sleep. A headline reads: 'Majority of Americans Sleep Poorly.' What is the critical flaw?

Sleep quality cannot be self-reported
The percentage should be higher to make headlines
Five hundred is too small a sample for any conclusion
The sample is not representative — hospital patients differ significantly from the general population (Correct answer)

Correct answer: The sample is not representative — hospital patients differ significantly from the general population

Sampling bias occurs when the sample group differs systematically from the population being described, invalidating generalization.

Question 3: Without knowing the circumstances, a manager concludes that an employee who arrived late is irresponsible and lazy. This is a classic example of which reasoning error?

Hindsight bias
Fundamental attribution error (Correct answer)
Framing effect
Confirmation bias

Correct answer: Fundamental attribution error

The fundamental attribution error involves over-attributing others' behavior to their character while underweighting situational factors.

Question 4: A school district report states that after switching from traditional textbooks to tablet-based learning in grades 6-8, math scores improved by 11% while reading scores declined by 3%. Teacher turnover in those grades increased by 20% during the same period. Which of the following can be VALIDLY interpreted from this information?

Teacher turnover increased because teachers opposed tablet-based learning.
The switch to tablets produced mixed academic results and coincided with higher teacher turnover. (Correct answer)
Tablet-based learning is superior to traditional textbooks for all subjects.
Reading scores declined because students spent too much time on math apps.

Correct answer: The switch to tablets produced mixed academic results and coincided with higher teacher turnover.

The data shows math scores improved, reading scores declined, and teacher turnover rose during the same period, making the mixed-results interpretation the only one directly supported.

Question 5: Passage: Studies show students who sleep at least 8 hours before an exam score higher than those who sleep fewer than 6 hours. Conclusion: Sleep is the most important factor in exam performance. What is the status of this conclusion?

True beyond reasonable doubt
Insufficient data (Correct answer)
Probably false
Probably true

Correct answer: Insufficient data

The passage compares sleep amounts but does not compare sleep to other factors, so ranking it 'most important' cannot be determined.

Question 6: Statement: A marketing agency noted that its social media campaigns generated three times more leads per pound spent than its print advertising campaigns over the past year. Based ONLY on the above, is this inference TRUE, PROBABLY TRUE, based on INSUFFICIENT DATA, or FALSE? Inference: The agency will completely abandon print advertising next year.

Insufficient Data (Correct answer)
Probably True
False
True

Correct answer: Insufficient Data

The passage reports ROI data but says nothing about future decisions.

Question 7: All hiring managers who use structured interviews achieve better diversity outcomes. No one on the current panel uses structured interviews. What follows?

The current panel achieves poor diversity outcomes overall.
Structured interviews are the only path to diversity.
The panel should be replaced immediately.
No one on the current panel achieves better diversity outcomes via structured interviews. (Correct answer)

Correct answer: No one on the current panel achieves better diversity outcomes via structured interviews.

Since the benefit is conditional on using structured interviews and no one does, no one gains that specific benefit.

Question 8: A national survey of 500 employed adults found that those who sleep 7–9 hours per night earn on average $15,000 more annually than those who sleep fewer than 6 hours per night. What is the probability of the following inference: Getting adequate sleep will increase a person's annual income.

Probably false — the data shows correlation, but higher income may itself enable better sleep conditions, reversing the assumed direction of causality (Correct answer)
Definitely true — adequate sleep is proven to improve cognitive performance and therefore earnings
Definitely false — sleep duration has no measurable relationship to income levels
Probably true — the large income gap and a plausible biological mechanism confirm the direction of causation

Correct answer: Probably false — the data shows correlation, but higher income may itself enable better sleep conditions, reversing the assumed direction of causality

The inference assumes sleep causes higher income, but the causal arrow may run the other way: higher-income individuals may have less stressful, more flexible jobs that allow adequate sleep. Survey data alone cannot establish which variable drives the other.

Question 9: Statement: A pharmaceutical company conducted a double-blind study on a new allergy medication. The group taking the new medication reported a 60% reduction in symptoms, while the group taking a placebo reported a 25% reduction in symptoms. The results were determined to be statistically significant. Inference: The new medication is completely ineffective for some of the people who take it.

INSUFFICIENT DATA
FALSE
PROBABLY TRUE (Correct answer)
PROBABLY FALSE

Correct answer: PROBABLY TRUE

The medication produced a 60% average reduction in symptoms. This is an average across the entire group. In any large group, there will be a range of responses. It is highly probable that some individuals experienced a much higher reduction, while others experienced a much lower reduction, including potentially 0%. The average figure makes it likely, though not absolutely certain, that the effect was not uniform for every single person.

Question 10: A municipal government planted 1,200 additional trees along residential streets over two years. A follow-up study found that summer surface temperatures in those neighborhoods dropped by an average of 2°C compared to similar neighborhoods without new plantings. Researchers noted that wealthier neighborhoods received more trees. Which interpretation is NOT justified by the passage?

Surface temperatures were lower in neighborhoods that received new trees than in comparable neighborhoods that did not.
Planting trees is the most cost-effective strategy a city can use to reduce urban heat. (Correct answer)
The tree-planting program may have delivered unequal benefits across income levels.
The data suggest a link between increased urban tree coverage and reduced surface temperatures.

Correct answer: Planting trees is the most cost-effective strategy a city can use to reduce urban heat.

Options A, B, and D are each directly supported by the passage: A restates the temperature finding, B is supported by the note about wealthier neighborhoods receiving more trees, and D draws a reasonable inferential link. Option C introduces a cost-effectiveness comparison that the passage never makes — no cost data are provided and no alternative strategies are evaluated, making this claim unjustified.

Question 11: A manager notices that teams led by extroverted leaders outperform others. She concludes that extroversion causes team success and plans to only hire extroverted leaders. What reasoning error is most significant?

Team performance metrics differ across departments.
She is ignoring other causal factors such as team composition, resources, and task type. (Correct answer)
She is relying on a study with too few extroverted leaders.
Extroversion is too difficult to measure reliably.

Correct answer: She is ignoring other causal factors such as team composition, resources, and task type.

Leadership style is one of many variables affecting team success; isolating extroversion as the sole cause oversimplifies a complex relationship.

Question 12: A researcher finds that countries with higher chocolate consumption win more Nobel Prizes per capita. What is the correct interpretation?

Nobel Prize committees favor chocolate-consuming nations
Countries should increase chocolate consumption to win more prizes
Chocolate consumption enhances cognitive performance
This is likely a spurious correlation driven by overall national wealth (Correct answer)

Correct answer: This is likely a spurious correlation driven by overall national wealth

Wealthier nations tend to both consume more chocolate and invest more in education and research, making national wealth the underlying confounder.

Question 13: An analysis shows that neighborhoods with more libraries have lower juvenile delinquency rates. A city council member proposes building libraries to reduce delinquency. What is the strongest counterargument?

The study measured only public libraries, not school libraries.
Wealthier neighborhoods can afford more libraries and also have fewer social stressors that lead to delinquency. (Correct answer)
Libraries are not popular among juveniles.
Delinquency is better addressed through policing.

Correct answer: Wealthier neighborhoods can afford more libraries and also have fewer social stressors that lead to delinquency.

Socioeconomic status likely drives both library availability and lower delinquency, making it the confounding variable.

Question 14: Statement: A pharmaceutical company conducted a 5-year study on 10,000 adults. Participants who slept fewer than 6 hours per night had a 35% higher rate of cardiovascular incidents than those who slept 7–9 hours. The study controlled for diet and exercise. Based ONLY on the above, is this inference TRUE, PROBABLY TRUE, based on INSUFFICIENT DATA, or FALSE? Inference: People who sleep less than 6 hours are more likely to develop heart problems.

True
Probably True (Correct answer)
False
Insufficient Data

Correct answer: Probably True

The study shows a statistical association, not absolute proof of causation, making 'Probably True' the best fit.

Question 15: Statement: 'Should all US citizens be required to vote?' Argument: 'No, because forcing citizens to vote violates the freedom to abstain, which is itself a form of political expression.' Is this argument strong or weak?

Strong, because it identifies a rights-based conflict directly relevant to compulsory voting (Correct answer)
Weak, because low turnout is harmful to democracy
Strong, because people are too busy to vote
Weak, because most democracies require voting

Correct answer: Strong, because it identifies a rights-based conflict directly relevant to compulsory voting

The argument is strong because it directly addresses a constitutional tension at the heart of the mandatory voting debate.

Question 16: Premise: No athletes in the league tested positive for banned substances this year. Premise: Jordan competes in the league. Conclusion: Jordan did not test positive for banned substances this year. Is this conclusion valid?

The conclusion does not follow — the premise covers most, not all, athletes.
The conclusion follows — the universal negative includes Jordan as a league athlete. (Correct answer)
The conclusion does not follow — Jordan may have missed testing.
The conclusion follows only if Jordan was tested.

Correct answer: The conclusion follows — the universal negative includes Jordan as a league athlete.

The premise states no athlete in the league tested positive, and Jordan is a league athlete, so it follows necessarily that Jordan did not test positive.

Question 17: A hospital replaced paper-based outpatient check-in with an electronic system. Average wait times fell from 45 minutes to 28 minutes, and patient satisfaction scores rose from 72% to 81%. Which inference is MOST reasonable?

The reduction in wait times likely contributed to the improvement in patient satisfaction scores (Correct answer)
Patients value speed of check-in more than the quality of medical treatment they receive
Electronic check-in systems universally improve patient satisfaction in any hospital setting
The hospital's clinical staff became more skilled after the new check-in system was introduced

Correct answer: The reduction in wait times likely contributed to the improvement in patient satisfaction scores

Both changes occurred together, making it reasonable to infer a connection between shorter waits and higher satisfaction. Option A generalizes beyond this single case; Option C attributes a change in clinical skill with no supporting evidence; Option D makes a value-priority claim the data does not address.

Question 18: Statement: All registered nurses in the state must complete 30 hours of continuing education every two years. Conclusion: Maria, who has been a registered nurse for 10 years, has completed continuing education requirements multiple times. Does the conclusion follow?

More information is needed about Maria's state
Yes, the conclusion necessarily follows
No, the conclusion does not follow (Correct answer)
The conclusion is probably true but not certain

Correct answer: No, the conclusion does not follow

The statement does not confirm Maria completed the requirements; she is required to, but may not have complied every cycle.

Question 19: Premise: No city in Region A has a population under 50,000. Premise: Millbrook is a city in Region A. Conclusion: Millbrook has a population of at least 50,000. Is this conclusion valid?

The conclusion does not follow — Millbrook could be newly incorporated.
The conclusion does not follow — population thresholds change over time.
The conclusion follows — the universal negative leaves no exceptions for Region A cities. (Correct answer)
The conclusion follows only if the census data is current.

Correct answer: The conclusion follows — the universal negative leaves no exceptions for Region A cities.

Because no city in Region A has a population under 50,000 and Millbrook is a city in Region A, Millbrook must have at least 50,000 people.

Question 20: Argument: 'If you want to be healthy, you should follow this celebrity's diet plan.' What unstated assumption is the argument making?

The diet plan that works for this celebrity will produce similar health results for others. (Correct answer)
The celebrity is paid to endorse the diet plan.
Being healthy is desirable and should be a goal for everyone.
The celebrity developed the diet plan themselves.

Correct answer: The diet plan that works for this celebrity will produce similar health results for others.

The argument assumes that what produces health outcomes for this celebrity's body, lifestyle, and metabolism will generalize to others — ignoring individual variation in metabolism, health conditions, and activity levels.

Question 21: A city government installed LED streetlights citywide and reported a 20% reduction in nighttime traffic accidents over the following year. Crime reports in lit areas also dropped by 12%. Which conclusion is most justified?

Following the LED streetlight installation, nighttime traffic accidents and crime in lit areas both declined. (Correct answer)
Any city that installs LED streetlights will achieve equivalent reductions in accidents and crime.
Streetlight type is the most important factor in determining urban crime rates.
LED streetlights are the definitive cause of both the accident and crime reductions.

Correct answer: Following the LED streetlight installation, nighttime traffic accidents and crime in lit areas both declined.

The data documents declines that followed the installation, but cannot definitively attribute causation, predict identical results elsewhere, or rank streetlight type above all other factors affecting crime.

Question 22: Statement: 'Should social media platforms be held legally liable for user-generated misinformation?' Argument: 'No, because social media companies employ many people and liability could reduce jobs.' Is this argument strong or weak?

Strong, because employment is an important economic concern
Strong, because laws should protect businesses
Weak, because social media companies are profitable
Weak, because employment impact is too indirectly related to misinformation liability (Correct answer)

Correct answer: Weak, because employment impact is too indirectly related to misinformation liability

The argument is weak because potential employment effects are too speculative and tangential to the core legal question of misinformation liability.

Question 23: Argument: 'This medication has been approved by the regulatory authority, so it is safe to take.' What is the key unstated assumption?

The medication was developed by a reputable pharmaceutical company.
The regulatory authority is funded by the government.
Regulatory approval guarantees that the medication is safe for all people in all circumstances. (Correct answer)
The regulatory authority tested the medication on a large sample.

Correct answer: Regulatory approval guarantees that the medication is safe for all people in all circumstances.

The argument assumes that regulatory approval equals comprehensive safety, when approvals are based on benefit-risk balance for specific populations and do not guarantee absence of side effects for all individuals.

Question 24: A university reports that graduates of its new accelerated program earn starting salaries 10% higher than traditional graduates. Which interpretation is justified?

In this university's data, accelerated program graduates had higher starting salaries. (Correct answer)
The accelerated program teaches superior skills that employers value more.
All universities should adopt accelerated programs to raise graduate salaries.
Traditional graduates are less competent than accelerated program graduates.

Correct answer: In this university's data, accelerated program graduates had higher starting salaries.

The justified interpretation stays within the reported data without attributing causes or generalizing beyond the institution.

Question 25: Argument: 'We should hire the candidate who has the most years of experience for this management role.' What unstated assumption does this argument make?

Years of experience is the best or most important predictor of management performance. (Correct answer)
The candidate with the most experience has applied for the role.
Experienced candidates demand higher salaries.
The management role has been vacant for a long time.

Correct answer: Years of experience is the best or most important predictor of management performance.

The argument treats years of experience as the decisive hiring criterion, assuming it best predicts management success — ignoring leadership aptitude, interpersonal skills, and cultural fit.

Question 26: Premises: 'If a building is taller than 30 floors, it requires a structural engineering review every 5 years. Tower Crest has 35 floors.' What conclusion necessarily follows?

Tower Crest should have a structural engineering review.
Tower Crest was built without proper engineering oversight.
Tower Crest is the tallest building in the city.
Tower Crest requires a structural engineering review every 5 years. (Correct answer)

Correct answer: Tower Crest requires a structural engineering review every 5 years.

Tower Crest's 35 floors exceed the 30-floor threshold, so the conditional rule applies — it requires a review every 5 years.

Question 27: Statement: 'Since our competitor lowered prices, we must lower ours too.' Proposed assumption: 'Customers choose products primarily based on price.' Is this assumption made?

Assumption made (Correct answer)
Price is mentioned explicitly as the deciding factor
Assumption not made
The assumption is a fact, not an inference

Correct answer: Assumption made

The urgency to match competitor prices is only justified if customers are assumed to make decisions based on price.

Question 28: Question: Should cities require developers to include affordable housing in new residential projects? Argument: Many low-income families are currently struggling to find housing they can afford in major cities. Is this a strong argument?

No, because it does not explain how the requirement would solve the problem.
Yes, because it identifies a real problem that the policy directly aims to address. (Correct answer)
No, because low-income families should relocate to cheaper areas.
Yes, because all new buildings should be affordable.

Correct answer: Yes, because it identifies a real problem that the policy directly aims to address.

The argument is strong because it establishes the existence of a genuine problem that the proposed policy is directly designed to address.

Question 29: A graph shows violent crime falling every year for a decade. A politician says 'our new policing program, launched 2 years ago, is working.' What is the key interpretive issue?

Crime was already declining before the program started, so attributing the trend to the program is premature (Correct answer)
Crime statistics are inherently unreliable
The program should be expanded based on this evidence
Violent crime always falls over time

Correct answer: Crime was already declining before the program started, so attributing the trend to the program is premature

The pre-existing downward trend existed before the intervention, making it impossible to credit the program without isolating its specific effect.

Question 30: Statement: Every doctor who graduated from Westfield Medical School between 2010 and 2020 passed their board certification on the first attempt. Dr. Chen graduated from Westfield Medical School in 2015. Conclusion: Dr. Chen passed board certification on the first attempt. This conclusion is:

True (Correct answer)
Probably True
Insufficient Data
False

Correct answer: True

Dr. Chen falls within the specified graduating cohort, and the statement covers all doctors in that cohort without exception.

Question 31: Question: 'Should governments regulate social media content?' Argument: 'Freedom of expression is a fundamental human right that governments should protect.' Is this argument strong and relevant?

Yes — fundamental rights always override policy considerations.
No — social media companies are not mentioned in any freedom of expression law.
Yes — freedom of expression is directly relevant because content regulation may restrict speech. (Correct answer)
No — freedom of expression applies to governments, not private companies, so it is irrelevant.

Correct answer: Yes — freedom of expression is directly relevant because content regulation may restrict speech.

Freedom of expression is directly relevant because content regulation by governments could impinge on this right — it addresses a core tension the question raises.

Question 32: Statement: 'Should the US require a national ID card for all citizens?' Argument: 'No, because other countries use national ID cards and still have high rates of identity theft.' Is this argument strong or weak?

Strong, because national ID systems clearly fail to prevent identity theft
Strong, because international evidence is always relevant to policy decisions
Weak, because the US already has Social Security numbers
Weak, because identity theft rates abroad may reflect many unrelated factors (Correct answer)

Correct answer: Weak, because identity theft rates abroad may reflect many unrelated factors

The argument is weak because correlating identity theft rates in other countries to a US national ID proposal ignores many confounding variables.

Question 33: Drug A reduced symptoms in 60% of 10 trial participants. Drug B reduced symptoms in 55% of 1,000 trial participants. Which result provides stronger evidence of effectiveness?

Drug A, because its success rate is higher
Drug B, because its larger sample produces a more reliable estimate (Correct answer)
Neither, because neither drug achieved 100% success
Both are equally strong because percentages are directly comparable

Correct answer: Drug B, because its larger sample produces a more reliable estimate

With only 10 participants, Drug A's 60% result (6 people) could easily be due to chance. Drug B's result from 1,000 participants is statistically far more stable and reliable. A larger sample reduces random variation, making the percentage estimate more trustworthy even if slightly lower.

Question 34: Passage: A nonprofit that added peer-mentoring programs to its after-school curriculum saw dropout rates fall from 18% to 7% over three years. A comparable program without peer mentoring held steady at 17%. What does this evidence most strongly suggest?

Peer mentoring is the sole reason students stay in school nationwide.
Dropout rates will always fall once peer mentoring is introduced.
Peer mentoring may have played a role in reducing dropout rates at this nonprofit. (Correct answer)
The comparison program had poorly trained staff.

Correct answer: Peer mentoring may have played a role in reducing dropout rates at this nonprofit.

The controlled comparison supports a likely role for peer mentoring, but the word 'sole' or 'always' overstates what one case study shows.

Question 35: A school district reports that after switching to later start times, teen absenteeism dropped by 18% and average GPAs rose by 0.2 points, but extracurricular participation declined by 12%. Which conclusion follows?

Later start times are entirely beneficial with no drawbacks
The decline in extracurricular participation proves later start times are harmful
GPA increases are meaningless if students participate in fewer activities
Later start times improved academic indicators but may have created scheduling conflicts for activities (Correct answer)

Correct answer: Later start times improved academic indicators but may have created scheduling conflicts for activities

The data shows academic improvements alongside reduced activity participation, indicating both benefits and potential trade-offs.

Question 36: Statement: 'Our company is implementing a mandatory wellness program for all employees to reduce healthcare costs.' Which of the following is an assumption the company is making?

All employees will willingly participate in the wellness program.
The wellness program will improve employee morale and productivity.
Employees' health behaviors have a significant impact on the company's healthcare costs. (Correct answer)
The wellness program will be the only factor influencing the company's healthcare costs.

Correct answer: Employees' health behaviors have a significant impact on the company's healthcare costs.

The statement logically connects the wellness program to the goal of reducing healthcare costs. This connection depends on the unstated assumption that employee health is a major driver of those costs. If employee health had no impact, the program would not achieve its stated financial goal.

Question 37: A survey of 2,400 adults found that people who reported sleeping fewer than six hours per night were 2.3 times more likely to describe their overall health as 'poor' compared with adults who slept seven to nine hours. The survey relied entirely on self-reported data. Which of the following is the MOST accurate interpretation of these findings?

Seven to nine hours of sleep is the medically optimal range for all adults.
Self-reported short sleep duration is associated with a higher likelihood of self-reported poor health in this sample. (Correct answer)
Sleeping fewer than six hours per night directly damages physical health.
Adults who sleep less are choosing an unhealthy lifestyle.

Correct answer: Self-reported short sleep duration is associated with a higher likelihood of self-reported poor health in this sample.

Because both variables — sleep duration and health status — were self-reported, the most defensible interpretation is that the two self-reported measures are associated within this sample. Option A asserts direct causation that the survey design cannot establish. Option C attributes causation to personal choice, and Option D converts a statistical association into a universal medical prescription, both of which go beyond the evidence.

Question 38: A tech company piloted a four-day workweek for six months. Project completion rates remained unchanged, but employee sick days decreased by 30%. Which inference is MOST justified?

All companies should immediately adopt a four-day workweek to improve employee health
Employees who work fewer days are inherently more motivated than full-week workers
The four-day workweek caused productivity to rise across the broader industry
Reducing the workweek to four days appears to lower absenteeism without harming output (Correct answer)

Correct answer: Reducing the workweek to four days appears to lower absenteeism without harming output

The data directly shows two outcomes: stable productivity and fewer sick days. Option B restates these facts accurately without overclaiming. Option A extends the finding beyond this company; Option C prescribes universal action the data cannot support; Option D introduces a motivational explanation not mentioned in the evidence.

Question 39: A weather report states: 'Temperatures dropped 15°C over six hours, and snowfall began at 11 PM.' Which of the following is an inference?

A cold front moved through the area causing the temperature drop and snow. (Correct answer)
Snowfall began at 11 PM.
The temperature and snowfall are unrelated weather events.
Temperatures dropped 15°C over six hours.

Correct answer: A cold front moved through the area causing the temperature drop and snow.

Attributing the drop and snow to a 'cold front' is a meteorological causal explanation that goes beyond what the weather report stated — it is an inference.

Question 40: Statement: 'Should the US government provide free internet access to all households?' Argument: 'Yes, because in the modern economy, internet access is increasingly necessary for job searching, remote work, education, and civic participation.' Is this argument strong or weak?

Strong, because internet access is a luxury that should be shared
Strong, because it identifies multiple direct ways internet access has become essential to economic and civic life (Correct answer)
Weak, because internet service providers would lose revenue
Weak, because not everyone wants to use the internet

Correct answer: Strong, because it identifies multiple direct ways internet access has become essential to economic and civic life

The argument is strong because it provides several concrete, relevant ways that internet access has become a functional necessity in modern society.

Question 41: A study found that employees who work remotely at least three days per week report higher job satisfaction than those who work entirely in the office. However, remote workers also report feeling less connected to their colleagues. Which of the following interpretations is BEST supported by the passage?

Office workers are generally unhappy with their jobs.
There is a trade-off between job satisfaction and social connection in remote work arrangements. (Correct answer)
Remote work improves all aspects of employee well-being.
Companies should require all employees to work remotely full-time.

Correct answer: There is a trade-off between job satisfaction and social connection in remote work arrangements.

The passage explicitly states remote workers have higher satisfaction but feel less connected, indicating a trade-off between these two factors.

Question 42: Premise: Whenever the alarm sounds, the building must be evacuated. Premise: The building is currently being evacuated. Conclusion: The alarm is currently sounding. Is this conclusion valid?

The conclusion follows only during business hours.
The conclusion follows if the fire department is present.
The conclusion follows — evacuation and the alarm always occur together.
The conclusion does not follow — evacuations can be ordered for reasons other than the alarm. (Correct answer)

Correct answer: The conclusion does not follow — evacuations can be ordered for reasons other than the alarm.

The alarm triggers evacuation, but evacuation can also be ordered by other means; the presence of evacuation does not confirm the alarm is the cause.

Question 43: Statement: 'Should the US expand nuclear energy production?' Argument: 'Yes, because nuclear power produces large amounts of electricity with near-zero carbon emissions during operation.' Is this argument strong or weak?

Weak, because nuclear waste is dangerous
Strong, because it directly addresses both energy capacity and a key climate concern (Correct answer)
Weak, because nuclear power plants take decades to build
Strong, because the US has uranium reserves

Correct answer: Strong, because it directly addresses both energy capacity and a key climate concern

The argument is strong because it directly addresses two of the central considerations in the energy policy debate: output and climate impact.

Question 44: Premises: 'All software applications that process personal data must comply with Regulation Z. Application Beta processes personal data.' What conclusion necessarily follows?

Application Beta probably complies with Regulation Z.
Application Beta may be exempt from Regulation Z.
Application Beta must comply with Regulation Z. (Correct answer)
Application Beta is a high-risk application.

Correct answer: Application Beta must comply with Regulation Z.

The universal premise applies to all personal data-processing applications without exception — Beta falls within this category, so compliance is required.

Question 45: Which of the following statements best exemplifies a "False Dilemma" fallacy?

"Our sales have increased every month since we hired the new marketing director, so she is clearly the cause of our success."
"Every successful tech company has an open-office floor plan; therefore, we must adopt one to be successful."
"If we don't approve this new security software immediately, our company will inevitably suffer a catastrophic data breach." (Correct answer)
"The new CEO is a poor public speaker, so his business strategy must be flawed."

Correct answer: "If we don't approve this new security software immediately, our company will inevitably suffer a catastrophic data breach."

This statement presents only two extreme outcomes (approve the software or face catastrophe) and ignores other possibilities, such as implementing alternative security measures, phasing in the software, or the possibility that a breach is not inevitable. This is a classic "either/or" fallacy.

Question 46: A pharmaceutical company claims their new drug reduces migraine frequency by 50% based on a clinical trial. Which of the following most undermines confidence in this claim?

Participants were recruited from multiple hospitals
The drug has mild side effects in some patients
The trial lasted six months
The trial did not include a placebo control group (Correct answer)

Correct answer: The trial did not include a placebo control group

Without a placebo control, the observed improvement could be due to the placebo effect rather than the drug itself.

Question 47: A passage states that a new fertilizer increased crop yields by 25% in field trials. Which interpretation is most appropriate?

All farms should immediately switch to the new fertilizer.
The new fertilizer is superior to all other fertilizers available.
The fertilizer produced 25% higher yields in the field trials conducted. (Correct answer)
Crop yields will universally increase by 25% with this fertilizer.

Correct answer: The fertilizer produced 25% higher yields in the field trials conducted.

Field trial results support conclusions only about those trials, not universal or comparative claims.

Question 48: A passage reports that patients who followed a low-sodium diet had blood pressure readings an average of 8 mmHg lower than those who did not. What is an appropriate interpretation?

In this study, patients following a low-sodium diet had lower average blood pressure. (Correct answer)
Sodium intake is the main cause of high blood pressure in the general population.
Low-sodium diets eliminate the risk of high blood pressure.
A low-sodium diet lowers blood pressure by exactly 8 mmHg in all patients.

Correct answer: In this study, patients following a low-sodium diet had lower average blood pressure.

The average finding applies to this study's patients and does not generalize to all individuals or establish sodium as the main cause.

Question 49: A logistics report states: 'The company shipped 12,000 units in Q3, up from 9,000 in Q2.' Which statement is an INFERENCE?

The company's operational capacity improved between Q2 and Q3. (Correct answer)
The company shipped 12,000 units in Q3.
The company shipped 3,000 more units in Q3 than in Q2.
The company's shipping volume increased from Q2 to Q3.

Correct answer: The company's operational capacity improved between Q2 and Q3.

'Operational capacity improved' is an inference — increased shipment volume could reflect higher demand rather than improved capacity, which is an unobserved internal variable.

Question 50: Question: 'Should governments offer tax incentives for companies that hire returning veterans?' Argument: 'Veterans often possess valuable leadership and technical skills developed during military service.' Is this argument strong and relevant?

No — veterans should earn employment on merit without special incentives.
No — tax policy should not be based on the perceived skills of any group.
Yes — veterans deserve preferential treatment as a reward for service.
Yes — establishing that veterans offer genuine workplace value directly supports the case for incentivizing their hire. (Correct answer)

Correct answer: Yes — establishing that veterans offer genuine workplace value directly supports the case for incentivizing their hire.

Demonstrating that veterans bring concrete skills that benefit employers addresses the core justification for the incentive — it shows the incentive promotes mutual employer-employee benefit, not just charity.

Question 51: Our project was initially scheduled to run from May to November, but due to the summer break, we requested an extension until December and made plans accordingly. The project won't move along at the previously anticipated rate throughout the summer because many of the employees working on it will take vacations. This sentence is within the paragraph:

Assumption made (Correct answer)
Assumption not made

Correct answer: Assumption made

Explanation: Since many workers will be out over the summer, slowing down the process, an extension was deemed necessary.

Question 52: Some US law firms require Watson-Glaser scores for associate hiring. Blake is applying to a US law firm. What can be deduced?

Blake must take the Watson-Glaser.
Blake's firm does not require critical thinking tests.
Blake's firm may or may not require a Watson-Glaser score. (Correct answer)
Blake will be evaluated solely on GPA.

Correct answer: Blake's firm may or may not require a Watson-Glaser score.

Because only 'some' firms require it, we cannot conclude whether Blake's specific firm does.

Question 53: A clinical trial reports that a new drug reduced symptoms in 40% of patients compared to 30% on placebo. The p-value is 0.04. What is the most accurate interpretation?

The drug is definitely effective and should be adopted immediately
A p-value of 0.04 means there is a 4% chance the drug works
The result is statistically significant, suggesting the difference is unlikely due to chance, though clinical importance should also be assessed (Correct answer)
The placebo had no effect at all

Correct answer: The result is statistically significant, suggesting the difference is unlikely due to chance, though clinical importance should also be assessed

Statistical significance at p<0.05 indicates the result is unlikely to be random chance, but clinical significance (the size and practical value of the effect) must also be evaluated.

Question 54: Premises: 'All employees who pass the certification exam receive a salary increase. Maria passed the certification exam.' What conclusion necessarily follows?

Maria will receive a salary increase. (Correct answer)
Maria received the highest score on the certification exam.
Maria deserves a salary increase.
Maria will probably receive a salary increase.

Correct answer: Maria will receive a salary increase.

The universal statement applies to all who pass — since Maria passed, the conclusion follows necessarily without qualification.

Question 55: A manager states, "Two weeks ago, we started providing free coffee in the breakroom. This week, productivity is up by 15%. The free coffee is clearly boosting our team's performance." The manager's conclusion is most vulnerable to criticism because it commits which logical fallacy?

Red Herring
Circular Reasoning
Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc (Correct answer)
Appeal to Authority

Correct answer: Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc

The manager commits the Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc (after this, therefore because of this) fallacy by assuming that because the productivity increase happened after the free coffee was introduced, the coffee must be the cause. This conclusion ignores other potential factors that could have influenced productivity.

Question 56: A study reports that cities with more coffee shops per capita have higher average incomes. Which conclusion is best supported by this data?

Income determines how many coffee shops a city needs
Coffee shops cause income to rise
Wealthy cities attract coffee shop chains, proving causation
Higher income and coffee shop density are correlated (Correct answer)

Correct answer: Higher income and coffee shop density are correlated

The data shows a correlation between two variables but does not establish which causes which.

Question 57: A manager concludes: 'Sales dropped 15% last quarter, so our marketing strategy must be failing.' The phrase 'must be failing' represents:

An inference because other causes could explain the drop. (Correct answer)
A value judgment about marketing effectiveness.
A fact because it follows from the sales data.
A hypothesis that has been experimentally confirmed.

Correct answer: An inference because other causes could explain the drop.

Attributing the drop specifically to marketing failure goes beyond what the sales data alone establishes.

Question 58: A company proposes to cut costs by outsourcing its customer service department to a third-party firm overseas. The stated goals are to reduce operational expenses and maintain the current level of customer satisfaction. Which argument is the WEAKEST and least relevant?

"An internal analysis shows that outsourcing would reduce departmental costs by 40% within the first year."
"A recent survey of our customers revealed that 85% prefer to speak with a customer service agent based in their own country."
"The CEO of our main competitor said in an interview that he would never consider outsourcing because it's unpatriotic." (Correct answer)
"The third-party firm has a 92% customer satisfaction rating with its other clients in our industry."

Correct answer: "The CEO of our main competitor said in an interview that he would never consider outsourcing because it's unpatriotic."

This argument is weak because it relies on the opinion of an external party (a competitor's CEO) and appeals to emotion ('unpatriotic') rather than providing data relevant to the company's specific goals of cost reduction and customer satisfaction. The other arguments are all strong and directly relevant as they provide data on cost savings, customer preferences, and the potential partner's performance.

Question 59: A teacher noticed that students who sit in the front row consistently earn higher grades than those who sit in the back. What is the probability of the inference: Sitting in the front row causes students to perform better academically.

Probably False (Correct answer)
True
Probably True
False

Correct answer: Probably False

Students who choose front-row seats may already be more motivated and engaged, so the seating position itself is probably not the cause of higher grades.

Question 60: A bar chart shows that city A has the highest number of reported thefts among five cities. Which interpretation is most accurate?

City A is the most dangerous city of the five.
Residents of city A are more dishonest than residents of other cities.
City A has the highest theft reporting rate, which may reflect high crime, high reporting behavior, or both. (Correct answer)
City A's police force is the least effective among the five cities.

Correct answer: City A has the highest theft reporting rate, which may reflect high crime, high reporting behavior, or both.

Reported theft numbers reflect both actual crime and reporting rates — high reports could indicate more crime, better policing that encourages reporting, or higher civic engagement in reporting.

Question 61: Argument: 'Alternative medicine has been practiced for thousands of years, which proves it is effective.' What type of fallacy is this?

Equivocation — the term 'practiced' is used in two different senses.
Ad hominem — it attacks critics of alternative medicine.
Circular reasoning — effective medicine is defined as medicine that has been practiced.
Appeal to tradition — long historical use is treated as proof of effectiveness. (Correct answer)

Correct answer: Appeal to tradition — long historical use is treated as proof of effectiveness.

Many practices have been used for centuries that were later proven ineffective or harmful — historical longevity does not establish clinical efficacy.

Question 62: Statement: A market research report shows that in the last year, sales of traditional print books increased by 5%, while sales of e-books decreased by 3%. The report surveyed over 5,000 consumers across various demographics. Inference: Consumers are losing interest in reading on digital devices.

The inference is definitely false.
The inference is probably true.
There is insufficient data to make a determination. (Correct answer)
The inference is definitely true.

Correct answer: There is insufficient data to make a determination.

There is 'Insufficient Data' to make this broad inference. The data shows a one-year decline in e-book sales, but this does not necessarily mean consumers are losing interest in digital reading overall. The decline could be a temporary fluctuation, or people could be reading on other digital platforms not covered by the 'e-book sales' metric (e.g., library apps, online articles, subscription services). A single year's data is not enough to conclude a long-term trend in consumer interest.

Question 63: Fruit was allowed to enter the country duty-free, but the Tariff Act of 1883 declared a 10% duty on all imported vegetables. As a way to increase his income, the New York Customs Collector proclaimed the tomato to be a vegetable. Importers who were upset made the decision to file a lawsuit. Although botanists classify the tomato as a fruit, Justice Horace Gray wrote in the court case Nix v. Hedden that "the tomato is the court's conclusion that the tomato is a vegetable as a matter of law since tomatoes are eaten as a primary component of a meal, like squash or peas." The sole purpose of the New York Customs Collector's declaration that the tomato was a vegetable was to increase his income.

Probably True
Probably False (Correct answer)
True
Insufficient Data
False

Correct answer: Probably False

The passage states that the Customs Collector declared the tomato a vegetable 'as a way to increase his income.' While this indicates one motivation, the word 'sole' in the inference implies it was the *only* reason. The text does not provide enough information to confirm that there were no other contributing factors or motivations, making it 'Probably False' that it was the sole purpose.

Question 64: Every report submitted after the deadline is rejected. This report was submitted on time. What follows?

This report will be rejected.
Late reports are sometimes accepted.
This report will be accepted.
Nothing definitive can be concluded about this report's acceptance. (Correct answer)

Correct answer: Nothing definitive can be concluded about this report's acceptance.

The rule only tells us about late reports; being on time does not guarantee acceptance since other rejection criteria may exist.

Question 65: Passage: All employees who completed the training program received a bonus. Maria did not receive a bonus. Conclusion: Maria did not complete the training program. What is the status of this conclusion?

True beyond reasonable doubt (Correct answer)
Probably true
Insufficient data
False beyond reasonable doubt

Correct answer: True beyond reasonable doubt

If all who completed received a bonus, then anyone without a bonus necessarily did not complete — a valid contrapositive.

Question 66: Statement: 'The number of registered electric vehicles in the country tripled over the last three years, while the number of new petrol vehicle registrations declined by 22%.' Inference: 'Consumer preference is shifting significantly from petrol to electric vehicles.' How should this inference be rated?

Definitely true — a triple increase and 22% decline prove a preference shift.
Probably false — electric vehicles are still a minority of total registrations.
Insufficient data — registration numbers do not reflect consumer preferences.
Probably true — the data strongly suggests a shift in consumer preference, though other factors may contribute. (Correct answer)

Correct answer: Probably true — the data strongly suggests a shift in consumer preference, though other factors may contribute.

The combination of rapidly rising EV registrations and declining petrol registrations is strong evidence of a preference shift, though subsidies, fuel prices, or regulation could also be driving it.

Question 67: Virtual employees, or employees that work from home via a computer, are an expanding trend. The number of virtual employees in the UK has grown by 39% over the past two years and by 74% over the past five. By using virtual employees, costs can be cut while brilliant employees can be used anywhere in the world. However, managing a remote workforce may result in misunderstandings, less camaraderie, and might take more time than face-to-face interaction. In comparison to four years ago, there were more

Probably True (Correct answer)
False
True
Probably False
Insufficient Data

Correct answer: Probably True

The passage states that the number of virtual employees in the UK has grown by 74% over the past five years. Since four years ago falls within this five-year period of continuous growth, it is highly probable that the number of virtual employees was lower four years ago than it is currently. The trend indicates an increase over time.

Question 68: Premise: All engineers at TechCorp hold advanced degrees. Premise: Marcus works at TechCorp as an engineer. Conclusion: Marcus holds an advanced degree. Is this conclusion valid?

The conclusion does not follow — Marcus may have been grandfathered in without a degree.
The conclusion follows only if Marcus has been employed for more than one year.
The conclusion follows — Marcus must hold an advanced degree. (Correct answer)
The conclusion does not follow — not all engineers are equal.

Correct answer: The conclusion follows — Marcus must hold an advanced degree.

Because all engineers at TechCorp hold advanced degrees and Marcus is an engineer there, it necessarily follows that Marcus holds an advanced degree.

Question 69: Statement: Three months ago, a technology company mandated that all employees must return to the office five days a week, ending its popular remote work policy. In the following quarter, the company's rate of voluntary employee resignations increased by 40%, and its internal employee satisfaction score dropped by 25 points. Inference: The mandatory return-to-office policy is unpopular with the company's employees.

The inference is probably true. (Correct answer)
The inference is definitely false.
The inference is probably false.
There is insufficient data to make a determination.

Correct answer: The inference is probably true.

This inference is 'Probably True'. The data shows a strong temporal correlation between the implementation of the new, stricter policy and two negative outcomes directly related to employee sentiment: a sharp increase in people quitting and a significant drop in satisfaction scores. While other factors could exist, the most direct and logical explanation for these changes is the policy itself, making the inference highly probable.

Question 70: If a candidate demonstrates strong deductive reasoning, they will advance to the final interview round. Tom did not advance to the final interview round. What can be concluded?

Tom failed the entire hiring process.
Tom's deductive reasoning score was slightly below average.
The interviewer made an error in Tom's evaluation.
Tom did not demonstrate strong deductive reasoning. (Correct answer)

Correct answer: Tom did not demonstrate strong deductive reasoning.

By modus tollens: strong deduction → final round; not final round → not strong deduction.

Question 71: Two towns have identical crime rates this year. Town A has 10,000 residents; Town B has 500,000 residents. What does this tell us about the absolute number of crimes?

Both towns have the same number of crimes
Town A is more dangerous per resident
The rate is not meaningful without knowing crime types
Town B has far more crimes in absolute terms despite the identical rate (Correct answer)

Correct answer: Town B has far more crimes in absolute terms despite the identical rate

Identical rates applied to vastly different population sizes produce very different absolute numbers — 1% of 500,000 far exceeds 1% of 10,000.

Question 72: A new training program was introduced in January. Errors dropped by 20% in February. The HR team declares the training caused the drop. Which alternative explanation weakens this claim most?

Some employees did not attend the training.
A separate process improvement was also implemented in January. (Correct answer)
The training lasted only two days.
February historically has fewer working hours.

Correct answer: A separate process improvement was also implemented in January.

If another intervention occurred simultaneously, it is impossible to isolate the training as the cause.

Question 73: An environmental report states that carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere reached 420 parts per million in 2024. A commentator writes that humanity has failed to address climate change. The commentator's claim is best described as:

A factual observation identical to the report
An inference that interprets the CO2 data in a broader context (Correct answer)
A scientific fact established by the measurement
A baseless opinion unrelated to the data

Correct answer: An inference that interprets the CO2 data in a broader context

While the CO2 measurement is a fact, the claim about humanity failing to address climate change is an inference that interprets the data within a larger narrative.

Question 74: Which of the following best represents a necessary condition for establishing a causal relationship between A and B?

A must be the only factor present when B occurs.
A and B must occur simultaneously in every observed case.
A must precede B in time, they must be correlated, and alternative explanations must be ruled out. (Correct answer)
B must never occur without A occurring first.

Correct answer: A must precede B in time, they must be correlated, and alternative explanations must be ruled out.

The standard criteria for causation include temporal precedence, covariation, and elimination of competing explanations.

Question 75: A clinical trial reports that patients taking a new medication showed a 30% reduction in symptoms over eight weeks. A pharmaceutical representative tells doctors that the medication is more effective than all existing treatments. The representative's claim is:

An inference that compares the medication to treatments not evaluated in the trial (Correct answer)
A factual comparison supported by the reported symptom reduction
A fact established by the clinical trial results
A logical conclusion drawn directly from the trial data

Correct answer: An inference that compares the medication to treatments not evaluated in the trial

The trial measured symptom reduction for one medication but did not compare it to all existing treatments, making the representative's claim an inference beyond the data.

Question 76: Every time employee morale surveys score high, productivity increases the following quarter. A manager concludes that high morale causes productivity gains. What must be considered?

Survey methods are always biased.
Reverse causation is possible — rising productivity may lift morale first. (Correct answer)
Productivity data lags by more than one quarter.
Managers influence both morale and productivity equally.

Correct answer: Reverse causation is possible — rising productivity may lift morale first.

Correlation can run in either direction; higher productivity expectations may boost morale, not the other way around.

Question 77: Scenario: An educational consultant advises a school district, 'Every student should be provided with a personal laptop to improve academic outcomes.' Which of the following is an unstated assumption made by the consultant?

Teachers will not require any additional training to integrate laptops into their curriculum.
The school district can afford to provide a personal laptop to every student.
Providing personal laptops is the only way to improve academic outcomes.
Students currently lack sufficient access to technology to support their learning. (Correct answer)

Correct answer: Students currently lack sufficient access to technology to support their learning.

The recommendation to provide laptops as a solution to improve academic outcomes presupposes that there is a problem to be solved – specifically, that students' current access to technology is a limiting factor for their academic success. If students already had adequate access, providing more laptops would not necessarily lead to improvement.

Question 78: A research team publishes findings that 68% of surveyed adults exercise fewer than three times per week. A health magazine headline reads: 'Americans Are Becoming Lazier Than Ever.' The headline represents:

A fact because it references real survey data
An inference that adds judgment and generalization beyond the survey data (Correct answer)
A factual summary of the research findings
An accurate paraphrase of the study's conclusion

Correct answer: An inference that adds judgment and generalization beyond the survey data

The survey provides exercise frequency data, but labeling people as lazier than ever is an inference that adds evaluative judgment not present in the raw findings.

Question 79: A school board is considering a proposal to make school uniforms mandatory for all students. The primary goal is to improve student focus on academics by reducing distractions related to clothing. Which of the following is the most relevant counter-argument?

"A comprehensive study of schools that implemented uniform policies found no statistically significant impact on academic performance or disciplinary issues." (Correct answer)
"The cost of the uniforms would present a significant financial burden for many families in the district."
"The board member who proposed this idea is a retired military officer and is just trying to make schools more rigid."
"My child is very creative and forcing them to wear a uniform will stifle their individuality."

Correct answer: "A comprehensive study of schools that implemented uniform policies found no statistically significant impact on academic performance or disciplinary issues."

The most relevant counter-argument directly challenges the premise of the proposal using objective evidence. Since the stated goal is to improve academic focus, a study showing that uniforms have no significant academic impact is the most direct and powerful rebuttal. The argument about stifling individuality is a valid concern but is subjective. The financial burden is a relevant practical issue but doesn't address the core academic goal. The attack on the board member is an irrelevant ad hominem fallacy.

Question 80: A study found that children who read for pleasure for at least 20 minutes a day had vocabularies twice the size of those who did not. Which is the most cautious interpretation?

Children who read more had larger vocabularies in this study. (Correct answer)
All children who don't read for pleasure will have small vocabularies.
Reading for pleasure is the only way to build a large vocabulary.
Parents must enforce 20 minutes of daily reading to ensure vocabulary growth.

Correct answer: Children who read more had larger vocabularies in this study.

The study shows an association within its sample; other vocabulary-building factors and broader applications are not addressed.

Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal

The Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal exam validates essential knowledge and skills required for certification or licensure in this field.

Questions

60 min

Time Limit

65%

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These practice questions were written with AI tools. They are not real exam questions. Exam facts are checked against the official sources listed below. Not reviewed by a subject-matter expert. Editorial policy

Sources & references

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