CST Schedule Risk & Contingency Analysis Flashcards

What AACE International recommended practice provides guidance on schedule risk analysis?

Answer: AACE RP 57R-09

AACE RP 57R-09 provides a framework for integrated cost and schedule risk analysis, including Monte Carlo simulation methods for project schedules.

In schedule risk analysis, what does a 'three-point estimate' consist of?

Answer: Optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic duration estimates for an activity

A three-point estimate uses optimistic (O), most likely (M), and pessimistic (P) durations to model activity duration uncertainty for risk analysis.

What is schedule risk exposure?

Answer: The product of the probability of a risk event occurring and its schedule impact in days

Schedule risk exposure quantifies the expected schedule impact of a risk by multiplying its probability of occurrence by the number of days of delay it would cause.

Which technique involves deliberately planning workarounds in advance for risks that have high probability and high schedule impact?

Answer: Contingency planning

Contingency planning creates predefined response strategies (workarounds) for high-probability, high-impact risks so that the team can react quickly if those risks materialize.

In a Monte Carlo schedule simulation, what does a wider spread in the S-curve output indicate?

Answer: Greater uncertainty and risk in the schedule

A wider S-curve spread in Monte Carlo output indicates that the range of possible completion dates is large, reflecting higher schedule uncertainty and risk.

What is the purpose of a 'risk register' in schedule risk management?

Answer: To document identified risks, their probability, impact, and response strategies

The risk register is a project document that captures all identified risks along with their probability, potential schedule impact, and planned mitigation or contingency responses.