Cognitive Reflection Test Heuristics and Common Biases 3 — Questions and Answers
Question 1: If it takes 5 machines 5 minutes to make 5 widgets, how long would 100 machines take to make 100 widgets?
- 100 minutes
- 5 minutes (Correct answer)
- 20 minutes
- 50 minutes
Correct answer: 5 minutes
Each machine makes one widget in 5 minutes, so 100 machines make 100 widgets in 5 minutes.
Question 2: Searching only for evidence that supports a belief you already hold is called:
- Confirmation bias (Correct answer)
- Availability heuristic
- Anchoring
- Framing
Correct answer: Confirmation bias
Confirmation bias is the tendency to seek and favor information confirming existing beliefs.
Question 3: Believing after an election that you 'knew it all along' is an example of:
- Hindsight bias (Correct answer)
- Optimism bias
- Recency bias
- Representativeness
Correct answer: Hindsight bias
Hindsight bias makes past events seem more predictable than they actually were.
Question 4: Continuing to fund a failing project because of money already spent illustrates:
- The sunk cost fallacy (Correct answer)
- Loss aversion
- Anchoring
- The gambler's fallacy
Correct answer: The sunk cost fallacy
The sunk cost fallacy is throwing good resources after unrecoverable past investments.
Question 5: Feeling the pain of losing $50 more strongly than the pleasure of gaining $50 reflects:
- Loss aversion (Correct answer)
- Framing effect
- Confirmation bias
- Base-rate neglect
Correct answer: Loss aversion
Loss aversion means losses loom psychologically larger than equivalent gains.
Question 6: In the lily-pad problem, if a patch doubles in size daily and covers the lake in 48 days, when does it cover half the lake?
- Day 24
- Day 47 (Correct answer)
- Day 46
- Day 12
Correct answer: Day 47
Since the patch doubles each day, it covers half the lake the day before it is full, on day 47.
Question 7: Judging a detailed, specific scenario as more probable than a broader one that contains it is the:
- Conjunction fallacy (Correct answer)
- Gambler's fallacy
- Sunk cost fallacy
- Framing effect
Correct answer: Conjunction fallacy
The conjunction fallacy occurs when a combination of conditions is judged more likely than one of its parts.
Cognitive Reflection Test Heuristics and Common Biases 3
If it takes 5 machines 5 minutes to make 5 widgets, how long would 100 machines take to make 100 widgets?