Inductive Reasoning Flashcards

A mechanic concludes that a particular car model has a faulty transmission because three different owners reported the same problem. This is most similar to which type of inductive reasoning?

Answer: Causal induction

Causal induction infers that repeated co-occurrence of events reveals a causal relationship between them.

Which of the following best illustrates the difference between a strong and a cogent inductive argument?

Answer: A cogent argument is strong AND has true premises; a strong argument may have false premises

Cogency requires both inductive strength (evidence supports conclusion) and true premises; a strong argument may still be unsound if premises are false.

A poll shows 60% of respondents support a new policy. The poll sampled 1,000 people randomly from a population of 300 million. The conclusion 'most Americans support the policy' is:

Answer: Inductively supported but not certain

A properly randomized sample provides inductive support for a population-level conclusion, though certainty is impossible.

Which of Mill's Methods identifies a cause by finding that the one factor present in all cases where an effect occurs is the likely cause?

Answer: Method of Agreement

Mill's Method of Agreement identifies the single common factor across all cases where the effect is observed as the probable cause.

A company notices that sales increase whenever they run TV ads and decrease when they stop. They conclude TV ads cause higher sales. Which of Mill's Methods does this most resemble?

Answer: Method of Concomitant Variation

Method of Concomitant Variation identifies causes by tracking how changes in one variable correlate with changes in another.

An argument from analogy concludes that two things are similar in one respect because they are similar in others. The argument is weakened when:

Answer: The compared items differ significantly in relevant ways

Significant relevant differences between the compared items undermine the analogical inference.

A researcher finds a strong positive correlation between ice cream sales and drowning rates. She concludes ice cream causes drowning. The error in this inductive reasoning is:

Answer: Confusing correlation with causation

Both ice cream sales and drowning rates rise in summer due to the lurking variable of hot weather, not a direct causal link.