Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Assessing Probability of Inferences Questions and Answers Flashcards
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A national report states that regions with more libraries per capita tend to have lower crime rates. What is the probability of the inference: Building more libraries in high-crime areas will reduce crime.
Answer: Insufficient Data
The correlation between libraries and lower crime does not establish causation, and the underlying factors such as funding, education levels, and economic conditions are not addressed.
After a factory switched to automated machinery, production output increased by 25% while the number of workplace injuries dropped by half. What is the probability of the inference: Automation improved both productivity and worker safety at this factory.
Answer: Probably True
The simultaneous improvement in both output and safety following the switch to automation makes it probably true that automation was the key factor in both changes.
A psychology study with 50 participants found that people who sleep fewer than six hours per night score lower on memory tests. What is the probability of the inference: Sleep deprivation impairs memory function in all adults.
Answer: Insufficient Data
While the finding suggests a link between sleep and memory, the small sample size of 50 participants is insufficient to generalize the conclusion to all adults.
Over the past decade, the percentage of households using renewable energy sources has tripled in a particular state. What is the probability of the inference: Government incentives for renewable energy contributed to this increase.
Answer: Insufficient Data
Without information about whether government incentives existed or what other factors such as falling costs or consumer preferences played a role, the cause cannot be determined.
A teacher noticed that students who sit in the front row consistently earn higher grades than those who sit in the back. What is the probability of the inference: Sitting in the front row causes students to perform better academically.
Answer: Probably False
Students who choose front-row seats may already be more motivated and engaged, so the seating position itself is probably not the cause of higher grades.
A pharmaceutical company tested a new allergy medication on 10,000 patients across multiple countries, and 92% reported significant symptom relief within two hours. What is the probability of the inference: The medication is effective at relieving allergy symptoms for most people.
Answer: True
With 10,000 patients across multiple countries showing a 92% relief rate, the evidence is strong enough to conclude that the medication is truly effective for most people.