Assessing Probability of Inferences Questions and Answers Flashcards
6 cards from real Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal practice questions. Tap to flip, then mark Knew It or Still Learning — missed cards come back until you master them.
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Statement: 'Three out of four software engineers at the firm left within six months of the new CTO taking over.' Inference: 'The new CTO's management style is causing engineers to resign.' How should this inference be rated?
Answer: Probably true — the strong correlation between the CTO's arrival and engineer departures suggests a likely connection.
A 75% departure rate coinciding with a leadership change is a strong signal, but better opportunities, project cancellations, or pre-existing dissatisfaction could also contribute.
Statement: 'The city's public library system reported a 60% increase in digital e-book loans while physical book loans fell by 30% over the same period.' Inference: 'Readers are increasingly preferring digital formats over physical books.' How should this inference be rated?
Answer: Probably true — the trend strongly suggests growing digital preference, though practical factors may contribute.
The simultaneous rise in e-book loans and fall in physical loans suggests shifting preferences, but e-book availability, pricing, or convenience could be driving the shift rather than pure preference.
Statement: 'Students who attended the optional Saturday revision sessions achieved an average score 18% higher than those who did not attend.' Inference: 'The Saturday sessions caused the improvement in scores.' How should this inference be rated?
Answer: Probably true — the sessions likely contributed, but motivated students self-select into attending.
Students who voluntarily attend extra sessions are likely more motivated, which independently raises scores regardless of the session content — making 'probably true' more accurate than 'definitely true'.
Statement: 'After the government introduced a sugar tax, consumption of sugary drinks fell by 12% nationally.' Inference: 'The sugar tax directly caused the reduction in sugary drink consumption.' How should this inference be rated?
Answer: Probably true — price increases from the tax likely reduced purchases, though other factors may also have contributed.
Price increases from taxes are well-established demand reducers, and the temporal coincidence with the policy is strong evidence, but concurrent health campaigns or reformulation by manufacturers could also contribute.
Statement: 'The athlete set a new personal best in all five events at the competition held at 2,800 meters altitude.' Inference: 'Training at altitude had prepared the athlete specifically for high-altitude competition.' How should this inference be rated?
Answer: Insufficient data — the statement does not mention whether the athlete trained at altitude.
The statement does not mention altitude training — the athlete may have simply been in peak form due to general fitness, timing in the season, or favorable conditions.
Statement: 'A tech startup raised $50 million in its Series B funding round, attracting investors from three continents.' Inference: 'The startup has a scalable business model with strong global market potential.' How should this inference be rated?
Answer: Probably true — significant global investment strongly suggests investors believe in its scalability and market potential.
Large-scale global investor interest is a strong positive signal about perceived market potential and scalability, though investors can be wrong and hype can inflate rounds.