Assessing Probability of Inferences Questions and Answers Flashcards
6 cards from real Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal practice questions. Tap to flip, then mark Knew It or Still Learning — missed cards come back until you master them.
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Statement: 'The hospital's emergency department reported a 35% increase in admissions last winter.' Inference: 'There was an unusually severe flu season last winter.' How should this inference be rated?
Answer: Probably true — a flu outbreak is a plausible and common explanation but other factors could contribute.
A severe flu season is a plausible and common cause of winter ER surges, but other factors (accidents, cold-related illnesses) could also contribute, making this 'probably true' rather than definite.
Statement: 'Since the new coffee shop opened near the office, the number of employees arriving late has doubled.' Inference: 'Employees are stopping at the coffee shop and losing track of time.' How should this inference be rated?
Answer: Probably true — the coffee shop is a plausible reason but other causes could exist.
The timing coincidence makes the coffee shop a plausible explanation, but other factors (road construction, schedule changes) could also explain increased lateness, so 'probably true' is appropriate.
Statement: 'The marketing department's budget was cut by 40% this quarter, and the company spent the savings on expanding its IT infrastructure.' Inference: 'The company believes technology investment will improve its competitive position more than marketing.' How should this inference be rated?
Answer: Probably true — the reallocation suggests prioritizing IT over marketing, though the specific belief is inferred.
The deliberate reallocation of funds from marketing to IT suggests a strategic preference, though the exact belief motivating the decision is inferred rather than stated.
Statement: 'A survey of 500 customers found that 78% preferred the new product packaging over the old design.' Inference: 'The company will adopt the new packaging for all product lines.' How should this inference be rated?
Answer: Probably true — high preference makes adoption likely but business factors could intervene.
A 78% preference makes adoption likely, but cost, supply chain constraints, regulatory requirements, or brand strategy could still prevent full adoption across all lines.
Statement: 'The regional office closed after the company reported its worst financial quarter in a decade.' Inference: 'The regional office was closed because of poor financial performance.' How should this inference be rated?
Answer: Probably true — poor financials make cost-cutting closures a likely cause.
While cost reduction during poor performance commonly leads to office closures, the statement presents only temporal succession, not a confirmed causal link, making 'probably true' the most accurate rating.
Statement: 'The number of registered electric vehicles in the country tripled over the last three years, while the number of new petrol vehicle registrations declined by 22%.' Inference: 'Consumer preference is shifting significantly from petrol to electric vehicles.' How should this inference be rated?
Answer: Probably true — the data strongly suggests a shift in consumer preference, though other factors may contribute.
The combination of rapidly rising EV registrations and declining petrol registrations is strong evidence of a preference shift, though subsidies, fuel prices, or regulation could also be driving it.