Mixed Deck — All Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Topics Flashcards

A company's employee satisfaction survey shows that 73% of respondents rate their job satisfaction as 'high' or 'very high.' HR concludes that the company has a strong workplace culture. What caveat is most important?

Answer: Survey response rates and self-selection bias may mean the 73% overstates actual satisfaction.

If dissatisfied employees were less likely to complete the survey, the 73% figure may reflect the responses of more satisfied employees, overestimating the overall satisfaction level.

The library closes at 6 PM on weekdays and 4 PM on weekends. Today is Tuesday. Inference: The library is open at 5 PM today.

Answer: True

Tuesday is a weekday and the library closes at 6 PM, so it is definitively open at 5 PM.

Question: Should public transit be free for all riders? Argument: Yes, because free transit would reduce car usage and lower urban air pollution. This argument is:

Answer: Strong, because it presents a direct, evidence-consistent causal chain from the policy to an environmental benefit

The argument is strong because research supports that cost is a barrier to transit use, and reduced car usage does lower urban pollution, creating a plausible and evidence-grounded causal chain.

Premises: 'Every contract signed before March 1st is subject to the old tax rate. Contract 47 was signed on February 15th.' What conclusion necessarily follows?

Answer: Contract 47 is subject to the old tax rate.

February 15th falls before March 1st, satisfying the condition exactly — the conclusion follows necessarily without any qualification.

A political poll reports: '62% of surveyed voters said they would vote for Candidate A in the next election.' Which is an INFERENCE?

Answer: Candidate A will win the next election.

Poll results measure stated voting intention, not actual election outcomes — many factors (turnout, undecideds shifting, events between polling and election day) can change results.

Passage: A teacher states: 'None of my students who completed all homework assignments failed the final exam.' Inference: 'Students who complete all homework assignments will pass the final exam.' How should this inference be rated?

Answer: Probably True

The inference is probably true because the teacher's data shows a consistent pattern, though future students could still fail despite completing homework.

Statement: 'If you want to save money on groceries, shop at discount stores.' Proposed assumption: Discount stores sell the same quality of groceries as regular stores. Is this assumption MADE or NOT MADE?

Answer: Not Made

The assumption is NOT made; the advice only assumes discount stores offer lower prices, not necessarily equivalent quality.

Passage: A pharmaceutical trial showed that patients taking Drug X experienced a 60% reduction in migraine frequency, while the placebo group experienced a 20% reduction. Both groups were monitored for six months. Which conclusion follows most directly?

Answer: Drug X produced a substantially greater reduction in migraines than the placebo in this trial.

The placebo-controlled comparison establishes that Drug X outperformed placebo in this trial, but does not rank it universally or recommend universal adoption.

A reviewer writes: 'Since this novel won a prestigious award, it must be well-written and enjoyable for all readers.' Which fallacy does this commit?

Answer: Appeal to authority

Appeal to authority incorrectly uses an expert judgment (award committee) as definitive proof for a subjective universal claim.

No parking violations were recorded in District Z last month. Inference: Residents of District Z always follow parking rules.

Answer: Insufficient Data

One month without recorded violations could reflect better enforcement or lower traffic volume, not a permanent behavioral pattern.

A manager argues, "We should not hire John for the sales position. I heard from a friend that he is going through a messy divorce." Why is this argument not relevant to the hiring decision?

Answer: It focuses on a personal circumstance that is unrelated to the candidate's professional qualifications and ability to perform the job.

The core weakness of this argument is its lack of relevance. A candidate's personal life, such as a divorce, has no direct bearing on their professional skills, experience, or potential job performance. While the other options are also true and represent poor practice (relying on hearsay, violating policy), the fundamental flaw in the argument itself is that the reason given is irrelevant to the candidate's qualifications for the job.

Question: 'Should pharmaceutical companies be required to publish all clinical trial data, including negative results?' Argument: 'Publication bias — where only positive results are published — can lead to misleading medical evidence and patient harm.' Is this argument strong and relevant?

Answer: Yes — it directly identifies the harm that the proposed requirement aims to prevent.

Publication bias leading to distorted evidence and patient harm is the exact problem the transparency requirement aims to solve — it is a strong, directly relevant argument.

Statement: 'Should the US require a national ID card for all citizens?' Argument: 'No, because other countries use national ID cards and still have high rates of identity theft.' Is this argument strong or weak?

Answer: Weak, because identity theft rates abroad may reflect many unrelated factors

The argument is weak because correlating identity theft rates in other countries to a US national ID proposal ignores many confounding variables.

Research shows that countries with higher chocolate consumption per capita have more Nobel Prize winners per capita. Which conclusion is most logically sound?

Answer: The correlation likely reflects a confounding variable such as national wealth or education investment

Both chocolate consumption and Nobel Prizes correlate with national wealth and education spending, which is a more plausible common cause.

A poll conducted three weeks before an election shows Candidate X leading with 52% support among 400 respondents, with a margin of error of ±5%. What is the most accurate interpretation?

Answer: The true support for Candidate X could plausibly be anywhere between 47% and 57%

A margin of error of ±5% means the true value falls within 52% ± 5%, i.e., between 47% and 57%. Since this range includes values below 50%, the race may be statistically tied. The reported lead is within the margin of error, making it impossible to conclude Candidate X is definitively ahead.

A student says, 'Because it rained every day this week, it will probably rain tomorrow.' This statement is best described as:

Answer: An inference drawn from a pattern of observations.

Drawing a conclusion about the future based on past observations is an inference, not an established fact.

Statement: A city introduced a mandatory recycling program six months ago. Since then, the amount of waste sent to the landfill has decreased by 30%. Inference: Residents are complying with the recycling program. How do you judge this inference?

Answer: Probably True

The landfill reduction is consistent with compliance, but other factors (waste reduction, population decline) cannot be ruled out, making this probably true rather than certain.

The word 'critical' means both 'negative/fault-finding' and 'essential/important.' An argument that exploits this double meaning commits:

Answer: Equivocation

Equivocation uses a word with multiple meanings in different senses within the same argument to mislead.

A study shows that hospitals with more nurses per patient have lower patient mortality rates. An administrator concludes: 'Hiring more nurses will reduce deaths.' What is the strongest challenge to this conclusion?

Answer: Better-funded hospitals may both hire more nurses and have other quality advantages that reduce mortality.

Reverse causation or a shared underlying cause (hospital funding/quality) could explain the correlation without nurse staffing being the direct cause.

Statement: No student who failed the midterm exam passed the final exam this semester. Inference: A student who failed the midterm will not pass the final exam.

Answer: True

The statement uses 'no student,' making it a universal rule; therefore the inference is definitively true based on the information given.