Evaluating Causal Relationships Flashcards
7 cards from real Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal practice questions. Tap to flip, then mark Knew It or Still Learning — missed cards come back until you master them.
Read the first 7 Evaluating Causal Relationships flashcards as text
A company introduces mandatory ergonomic chairs and reports a 25% drop in employee sick days the following quarter. The CEO attributes this to the chairs. What additional information is MOST critical before accepting this causal claim?
Answer: Whether sick day rates followed the same downward trend company-wide in prior years or industry-wide at the same time.
A preexisting downward trend or a seasonal/industry-wide reduction would suggest the drop was not caused by the chairs.
Which of the following pairs of events is the BEST example of a spurious correlation (both caused by a third factor, with no direct causal link between them)?
Answer: Ice cream sales and drowning rates both rising in summer.
Both ice cream sales and drowning rates are driven by hot weather (a third variable); neither causes the other.
A psychologist argues: 'Children who watch violent TV shows are more aggressive.' A critic responds that aggressive children may simply prefer violent content. What logical concept does the critic's response illustrate?
Answer: Reverse causation
Reverse causation occurs when the assumed effect (aggression) may actually be causing the assumed cause (choosing violent TV), reversing the proposed direction.
In evaluating a proposed cause-and-effect relationship, establishing that the cause preceded the effect in time is described as which condition?
Answer: Temporal precedence
Temporal precedence—the cause occurring before the effect—is one of the three classic criteria (along with covariation and ruling out alternatives) for establishing causation.
A study finds a dose-response relationship: the more cigarettes smoked per day, the higher the rate of lung cancer. Why does this strengthen the causal argument?
Answer: It shows that increases in the proposed cause are associated with proportional increases in the effect, consistent with a mechanism.
A dose-response relationship is strong evidence for causation because it shows the effect scales with the cause in a systematic, mechanistically plausible way.
A public health researcher wants to determine whether a new vaccine causes a rare side effect. Which study design provides the strongest causal evidence?
Answer: A randomized controlled trial assigning participants to vaccine or placebo groups and monitoring side effects.
Randomized controlled trials minimize confounding and establish temporal precedence, making them the gold standard for causal inference.
A manager notices that teams with standing desks submit more creative project proposals. She plans to buy standing desks for all teams to boost creativity. Which critical thinking error does this plan risk committing?
Answer: Treating correlation as sufficient evidence of causation without investigating alternative explanations.
The manager is acting on a correlation (standing desks and creativity co-occur) without establishing that desks cause creativity—more creative teams may simply have been given desks as a perk.