Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Watson-Glaser Inference and Assumption Tests 4 — Questions and Answers
Question 1: Statement: 'Sales at the downtown store fell 15% after a new competitor opened nearby.' Inference: The competitor caused the sales decline. This inference is:
- True
- Probably True
- Insufficient Data (Correct answer)
- Probably False
Correct answer: Insufficient Data
Correlation between the competitor opening and the decline does not confirm causation without ruling out other factors.
Question 2: Which assumption is taken for granted in the argument: 'We should hire candidates with the highest GPA because academic excellence predicts job success'?
- All high-GPA candidates want challenging jobs
- GPA is a reliable predictor of real-world job performance (Correct answer)
- Job success is the only hiring criterion that matters
- Candidates with lower GPAs lack ambition
Correct answer: GPA is a reliable predictor of real-world job performance
The argument only holds if GPA actually predicts job success — that link is assumed, not proven.
Question 3: Statement: 'No accidents were reported on Highway 9 during the speed-camera trial period.' Inference: Speed cameras eliminate highway accidents. This inference is:
- True
- Probably True
- Insufficient Data
- Probably False (Correct answer)
Correct answer: Probably False
Zero reported accidents in one trial period does not support such an absolute universal claim.
Question 4: Identify the hidden assumption: 'Since employee morale surveys improved, our new wellness program is working.'
- Wellness programs are expensive to run
- Survey scores are the only measure of morale
- The wellness program is the sole cause of improved scores (Correct answer)
- Employees respond honestly to all surveys
Correct answer: The wellness program is the sole cause of improved scores
The argument assumes no other changes occurred that could also explain the morale improvement.
Question 5: Statement: 'Three of the four engineers who reviewed the design approved it.' Inference: The design is fundamentally sound. This inference is:
- True
- Probably True (Correct answer)
- Insufficient Data
- Probably False
Correct answer: Probably True
Majority expert approval is reasonable evidence of soundness, though not conclusive.
Question 6: Which statement best describes a 'probably false' inference in the Watson-Glaser framework?
- There is not enough information in the passage to evaluate the inference
- The inference contradicts the passage but lacks overwhelming evidence (Correct answer)
- The inference is directly stated in the passage
- The inference follows necessarily from the passage
Correct answer: The inference contradicts the passage but lacks overwhelming evidence
'Probably False' means the evidence leans against the inference but doesn't definitively rule it out.
Question 7: Argument: 'Students who eat breakfast score higher on tests, so schools should provide free breakfast.' What assumption does this make?
- All students currently skip breakfast
- Providing breakfast will cause test scores to rise (Correct answer)
- Test scores are the most important school outcome
- Free breakfast programs are cost-effective
Correct answer: Providing breakfast will cause test scores to rise
The argument assumes a causal link — that providing breakfast will produce the same effect observed in the correlation.
Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Watson-Glaser Inference and Assumption Tests 4
Statement: 'Sales at the downtown store fell 15% after a new competitor opened nearby.' Inference: The competitor caused the sales decline.
This inference is: