Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Analyzing Conclusions Questions and Answers 4 — Questions and Answers
Question 1: Statement: The new medication was tested on 500 patients. Of those, 480 showed significant improvement. Conclusion: The new medication is effective for all patients. This conclusion is:
- True
- Probably True
- Insufficient Data
- False (Correct answer)
Correct answer: False
20 patients did not improve, so the claim of effectiveness for ALL patients is directly contradicted by the data.
Question 2: Statement: None of the products manufactured at Plant A failed quality inspection last quarter. Conclusion: Plant A's quality control procedures are effective. This conclusion is:
- True
- Probably True (Correct answer)
- Insufficient Data
- False
Correct answer: Probably True
A 100% pass rate is strong evidence of effective quality control, though other factors (easy inspection standards, small batch size) cannot be entirely ruled out.
Question 3: Statement: Studies show that countries with higher chocolate consumption per capita have more Nobel Prize winners per capita. Conclusion: Eating more chocolate increases a person's likelihood of winning a Nobel Prize. This conclusion is:
- True
- Probably True
- Insufficient Data
- False (Correct answer)
Correct answer: False
This is a classic spurious correlation — both variables are likely linked to national wealth, not to a causal relationship between chocolate and Nobel prizes.
Question 4: Statement: All mammals are warm-blooded. Dolphins are mammals. Conclusion: Dolphins are warm-blooded. This conclusion is:
- True (Correct answer)
- Probably True
- Insufficient Data
- False
Correct answer: True
This is a valid deductive syllogism; if all mammals are warm-blooded and dolphins are mammals, it necessarily follows that dolphins are warm-blooded.
Question 5: Statement: The company's revenue increased by 15% after the new CEO took office. Conclusion: The new CEO's leadership caused the revenue increase. This conclusion is:
- True
- Probably True
- Insufficient Data (Correct answer)
- False
Correct answer: Insufficient Data
Without knowing whether market conditions, prior initiatives, or other factors contributed to growth, causal attribution to the CEO requires more data.
Question 6: Statement: Either the alarm system malfunctioned, or someone deactivated it intentionally. The diagnostic report confirms the alarm system did not malfunction. Conclusion: Someone intentionally deactivated the alarm system. This conclusion is:
- True (Correct answer)
- Probably True
- Insufficient Data
- False
Correct answer: True
This is a valid disjunctive syllogism: if exactly one of two options is true and one is eliminated, the other must be true.
Question 7: Statement: Several studies indicate that students who read for pleasure score higher on standardized reading tests. Conclusion: Encouraging students to read for pleasure will improve their standardized test scores. This conclusion is:
- True
- Probably True (Correct answer)
- Insufficient Data
- False
Correct answer: Probably True
Multiple studies pointing the same direction suggest a likely causal relationship, making this probably true, though individual results may vary.
Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Analyzing Conclusions Questions and Answers 4
Statement: The new medication was tested on 500 patients.
Of those, 480 showed significant improvement.
Conclusion: The new medication is effective for all patients.
This conclusion is: