Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Interpreting Evidence and Data 4 — Questions and Answers
Question 1: A company's revenue grew 200% over three years, but profit margins fell from 20% to 8%. What is the most accurate overall assessment?
- The company is clearly thriving financially
- Revenue growth masks declining profitability efficiency (Correct answer)
- Profit margins are irrelevant to business health
- A 200% revenue gain always outweighs margin changes
Correct answer: Revenue growth masks declining profitability efficiency
Strong revenue growth alongside shrinking margins suggests the company is earning proportionally less per dollar of sales.
Question 2: A polling organization reports a margin of error of ±4% at a 95% confidence level. A candidate leads 52% to 48%. What is the most accurate interpretation?
- The candidate will definitely win
- The race is too close to call given the margin of error (Correct answer)
- The 4% margin means 4% of votes were miscounted
- 95% confidence means 95% of voters prefer the leading candidate
Correct answer: The race is too close to call given the margin of error
The 4-point lead falls within the ±4% margin of error, so the true values could overlap and either candidate could be ahead.
Question 3: A dataset lists average test scores by school. Schools with smaller class sizes consistently score higher. A superintendent concludes smaller classes cause better scores. What assumption is being made?
- All schools use the same curriculum
- No other differences between schools explain the score gap (Correct answer)
- Class size data is always accurate
- Test scores are the only important outcome
Correct answer: No other differences between schools explain the score gap
The conclusion assumes class size is the only relevant difference, ignoring other factors like teacher quality or student demographics.
Question 4: A graph shows that a city's crime rate dropped 30% after a new policing strategy was introduced. Which additional evidence would most strengthen the claim that the strategy caused the drop?
- A photograph of the police chief
- Comparable cities without the strategy showed no similar drop (Correct answer)
- The strategy was expensive to implement
- Crime dropped in only one neighborhood
Correct answer: Comparable cities without the strategy showed no similar drop
A control comparison with cities that did not adopt the strategy helps isolate the strategy's effect from other factors.
Question 5: Data shows 90% of lung cancer patients drank water daily. A tabloid headline reads: 'Water Linked to Lung Cancer!' What is the primary error in this interpretation?
- The sample size is too small
- Nearly 100% of the general population also drinks water daily, eliminating any meaningful difference (Correct answer)
- Lung cancer statistics are always misleading
- The headline should have said 'causes' instead of 'linked'
Correct answer: Nearly 100% of the general population also drinks water daily, eliminating any meaningful difference
Without comparing water consumption rates in the general population, the statistic is meaningless and misleading.
Question 6: A company tracks customer satisfaction monthly. Scores jump from 72 to 89 in one month after a survey redesign. The most cautious interpretation is:
- Customer satisfaction genuinely improved by 17 points
- The change in measurement method may explain the score increase (Correct answer)
- The previous scores were fraudulent
- An 89 score means 89% of customers are fully satisfied
Correct answer: The change in measurement method may explain the score increase
A change in how satisfaction is measured can produce score changes that reflect the new methodology rather than actual customer experience.
Question 7: A researcher reports that students using digital flashcards scored 10% higher on average than those using paper flashcards. The study used self-selected groups. What is the main interpretive limitation?
- Digital tools are always better than paper
- Self-selection bias means the groups may differ in motivation or prior achievement (Correct answer)
- A 10% difference is too small to matter
- Flashcard studies cannot be published
Correct answer: Self-selection bias means the groups may differ in motivation or prior achievement
Students who chose digital tools may already be more motivated or tech-savvy, confounding the comparison.
Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Interpreting Evidence and Data 4
A company's revenue grew 200% over three years, but profit margins fell from 20% to 8%.
What is the most accurate overall assessment?