Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Inferences 4 — Questions and Answers
Question 1: A study found that neighborhoods with more trees have lower average summer temperatures. City planners infer that planting trees will cool other neighborhoods. This inference is: A) True — trees definitely lower temperatures everywhere. B) Probably true — the evidence suggests a cooling effect from trees. C) Insufficient data — the neighborhoods with trees might differ in many other ways. D) False — trees have no effect on urban temperature.
- True — trees definitely lower temperatures everywhere.
- Probably true — the evidence suggests a cooling effect from trees. (Correct answer)
- Insufficient data — the neighborhoods with trees might differ in many other ways.
- False — trees have no effect on urban temperature.
Correct answer: Probably true — the evidence suggests a cooling effect from trees.
The consistent association across neighborhoods provides reasonable (though not conclusive) evidence that trees contribute to cooling, making 'probably true' the best rating.
Question 2: Passage: No students who failed the midterm were allowed to take the final exam. James took the final exam. What is the best inference? A) James passed the midterm. B) James probably passed the midterm. C) James received special permission to take the final. D) James did not study for the midterm.
- James passed the midterm. (Correct answer)
- James probably passed the midterm.
- James received special permission to take the final.
- James did not study for the midterm.
Correct answer: James passed the midterm.
The rule states failing students cannot take the final; since James did take it, it is certain he did not fail — i.e., he passed the midterm.
Question 3: A region that banned single-use plastics saw ocean plastic debris decrease by 40% over three years. Activists claim the ban caused the reduction. Which inference is best? A) Probably true — the ban is the most direct explanation for the debris drop. B) Certainly true — a 40% drop proves the ban worked. C) Insufficient data — regional ocean currents and global plastic trends must also be examined. D) Probably false — plastic bans rarely have measurable environmental effects.
- Probably true — the ban is the most direct explanation for the debris drop.
- Certainly true — a 40% drop proves the ban worked.
- Insufficient data — regional ocean currents and global plastic trends must also be examined. (Correct answer)
- Probably false — plastic bans rarely have measurable environmental effects.
Correct answer: Insufficient data — regional ocean currents and global plastic trends must also be examined.
Without data on regional currents, neighboring regions' plastic output, and global trends, the debris reduction cannot be attributed solely to the local ban.
Question 4: Statement: Most entrepreneurs who succeeded in the tech industry dropped out of college. Therefore, dropping out of college increases one's chances of tech success. This reasoning is flawed because: A) Successful entrepreneurs are not representative of all dropouts. B) Tech success requires a college degree. C) Most tech entrepreneurs did complete college. D) College dropouts are more creative than graduates.
- Successful entrepreneurs are not representative of all dropouts. (Correct answer)
- Tech success requires a college degree.
- Most tech entrepreneurs did complete college.
- College dropouts are more creative than graduates.
Correct answer: Successful entrepreneurs are not representative of all dropouts.
Selecting only successful entrepreneurs (survivorship bias) ignores the vast majority of dropouts who did not achieve tech success, making the inference invalid.
Question 5: Passage: A town's average household income rose 12% after a new tech company opened. A local official says residents are better off financially. This inference is: A) Probably true — higher average income typically reflects broader financial improvement. B) True — average income is the definitive measure of financial wellbeing. C) Insufficient data — averages can be skewed by high earners at the new company. D) False — income rises always hurt low-income residents.
- Probably true — higher average income typically reflects broader financial improvement.
- True — average income is the definitive measure of financial wellbeing.
- Insufficient data — averages can be skewed by high earners at the new company. (Correct answer)
- False — income rises always hurt low-income residents.
Correct answer: Insufficient data — averages can be skewed by high earners at the new company.
A rise in average household income could be driven entirely by a small group of high-paid new employees, leaving most existing residents financially unchanged.
Question 6: Every runner who finished the marathon in under 3 hours had trained for at least 6 months. Keisha trained for 8 months. What can you infer? A) Keisha will finish the marathon in under 3 hours. B) Keisha is guaranteed to finish the marathon. C) Training duration of at least 6 months is a common factor among fast finishers, but Keisha's outcome is unknown. D) Keisha trained longer than any other runner.
- Keisha will finish the marathon in under 3 hours.
- Keisha is guaranteed to finish the marathon.
- Training duration of at least 6 months is a common factor among fast finishers, but Keisha's outcome is unknown. (Correct answer)
- Keisha trained longer than any other runner.
Correct answer: Training duration of at least 6 months is a common factor among fast finishers, but Keisha's outcome is unknown.
The statement tells us fast finishers all trained long, but long training is not stated to be sufficient for a fast finish — Keisha's result cannot be predicted.
Question 7: Passage: Sales of electric vehicles (EVs) have tripled over five years while gas prices have doubled. A journalist infers that high gas prices are driving EV adoption. This inference is: A) Probably true — rising fuel costs logically incentivize switching to EVs. B) Certainly true — the simultaneous trends prove the connection. C) Insufficient data — EV technology improvements and government incentives could also explain the growth. D) Probably false — consumers rarely switch vehicle types based on fuel prices.
- Probably true — rising fuel costs logically incentivize switching to EVs. (Correct answer)
- Certainly true — the simultaneous trends prove the connection.
- Insufficient data — EV technology improvements and government incentives could also explain the growth.
- Probably false — consumers rarely switch vehicle types based on fuel prices.
Correct answer: Probably true — rising fuel costs logically incentivize switching to EVs.
Rising gas prices provide a rational financial motive to switch to EVs, making this a plausible and probable inference even though other factors also play a role.
Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Inferences 4
A study found that neighborhoods with more trees have lower average summer temperatures.
City planners infer that planting trees will cool other neighborhoods.
This inference is:
A) True — trees definitely lower temperatures everywhere.
B) Probably true — the evidence suggests a cooling effect from trees.
C) Insufficient data — the neighborhoods with trees might differ in many other ways.
D) False — trees have no effect on urban temperature.