Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Distinguishing Facts from Inferences 5 — Questions and Answers
Question 1: A study reports: 'Participants who slept 8 hours performed 20% better on memory tasks than those who slept 5 hours.' A journalist concludes: 'Eight hours of sleep is the key to a good memory.' The journalist's conclusion is:
- A fact because the study provides measurable evidence.
- An inference that overgeneralizes from one study's specific finding. (Correct answer)
- A scientific consensus endorsed by the research community.
- A value judgment about lifestyle choices.
Correct answer: An inference that overgeneralizes from one study's specific finding.
The study shows an association in one experiment; calling sleep 'the key' overstates what a single controlled result proves.
Question 2: Which scenario best demonstrates a FACT being misrepresented as an inference?
- Saying 'It rained 2 inches yesterday' when weather records confirm 2 inches fell.
- Saying 'It probably rained 2 inches' when weather records confirm exactly 2 inches fell. (Correct answer)
- Saying 'It will rain tomorrow' based on today's cloudy sky.
- Saying 'Rain causes bad moods' based on personal experience.
Correct answer: Saying 'It probably rained 2 inches' when weather records confirm exactly 2 inches fell.
Adding 'probably' to a confirmed, verifiable measurement incorrectly treats a fact as uncertain inference.
Question 3: A politician states: 'Crime rose 12% in our city last year.' An opponent argues: 'Citizens feel unsafe.' Which pair of labels is correct?
- Both statements are facts supported by data.
- The first is a fact (if verified); the second is an inference about subjective experience. (Correct answer)
- Both are inferences because crime statistics can be manipulated.
- The first is an opinion; the second is a verifiable fact.
Correct answer: The first is a fact (if verified); the second is an inference about subjective experience.
Reported crime rates are verifiable figures; feelings of safety are inferred from those rates, not directly measured by them.
Question 4: In critical thinking, 'insufficient evidence' to evaluate an inference means:
- The inference is definitely false.
- The available facts neither confirm nor deny the inference. (Correct answer)
- More expert testimony is needed before the inference can be stated.
- The inference should be treated as a fact until disproven.
Correct answer: The available facts neither confirm nor deny the inference.
Insufficient evidence means the presented facts are neutral regarding the inference — it can be neither accepted nor rejected.
Question 5: A supervisor observes: 'Employee turnover increased from 10% to 18% this year.' She then tells HR: 'Staff morale must be very low.' Her conclusion is:
- A fact because turnover is a standard morale indicator.
- An inference because turnover can result from factors unrelated to morale. (Correct answer)
- A verified HR metric derived from the turnover data.
- A hypothesis that HR should formally test before acting.
Correct answer: An inference because turnover can result from factors unrelated to morale.
Higher turnover is consistent with low morale but could also reflect competitive job markets, salary issues, or restructuring.
Question 6: A news story says: 'The referendum passed with 61% of the vote.' A commentator adds: 'The people have clearly rejected the old policy.' The commentator's addition is:
- A fact because 61% is a clear majority.
- An inference that interprets the vote's meaning beyond the reported figure. (Correct answer)
- A statistical summary consistent with the vote result.
- A value judgment about democratic processes.
Correct answer: An inference that interprets the vote's meaning beyond the reported figure.
The vote percentage is factual; what voters intended by their vote involves interpretation that goes beyond the bare number.
Question 7: When applying Watson-Glaser thinking, which practice best helps distinguish facts from inferences?
- Assume all numeric data represents facts and all qualitative claims are inferences.
- Ask whether the statement was directly observed/verified or whether it requires interpretation. (Correct answer)
- Trust statements from credentialed experts as facts and others as inferences.
- Classify every conditional statement as an inference and every declarative as a fact.
Correct answer: Ask whether the statement was directly observed/verified or whether it requires interpretation.
The reliable test is whether a statement reports direct evidence or whether it requires interpretation, prediction, or extrapolation.
Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Distinguishing Facts from Inferences 5
A study reports: 'Participants who slept 8 hours performed 20% better on memory tasks than those who slept 5 hours.' A journalist concludes: 'Eight hours of sleep is the key to a good memory.' The journalist's conclusion is: