Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Analyzing Conclusions 5 — Questions and Answers
Question 1: Passage: A survey of 50 gym members found that those who hired personal trainers lost more weight than those who did not. Conclusion: Hiring a personal trainer is the best way to lose weight. What is the status of this conclusion?
- True beyond reasonable doubt
- Probably true
- Insufficient data (Correct answer)
- Probably false
Correct answer: Insufficient data
The survey shows trainers outperform no trainer for gym members but does not compare training to other weight-loss methods, so 'best' cannot be determined.
Question 2: Passage: Every applicant who passed the skills test was invited for an interview. Keiko was not invited for an interview. Conclusion: Keiko did not pass the skills test. What is the status of this conclusion?
- True beyond reasonable doubt (Correct answer)
- Probably true
- Insufficient data
- Probably false
Correct answer: True beyond reasonable doubt
Since passing guarantees an invitation, lacking an invitation confirms the test was not passed — a logically valid contrapositive.
Question 3: Passage: Cities with more green spaces report higher average resident happiness scores. Conclusion: Adding green spaces will increase resident happiness in any city. What is the status of this conclusion?
- True beyond reasonable doubt
- Probably true (Correct answer)
- Insufficient data
- Probably false
Correct answer: Probably true
A consistent cross-city association between green spaces and happiness makes a probable causal benefit reasonable, though local factors could vary.
Question 4: Passage: Half of the students in the class scored above the class average on the midterm. Conclusion: The class performed well on the midterm. What is the status of this conclusion?
- True beyond reasonable doubt
- Probably true
- Insufficient data (Correct answer)
- Probably false
Correct answer: Insufficient data
By mathematical definition, half of any group always scores above the average; the statement reveals nothing about absolute performance levels.
Question 5: Passage: Countries with higher chocolate consumption per capita have more Nobel Prize winners per capita. Conclusion: Eating more chocolate increases a nation's intellectual output. What is the status of this conclusion?
- True beyond reasonable doubt
- Probably true
- Insufficient data
- Probably false (Correct answer)
Correct answer: Probably false
This is a classic spurious correlation — both variables are linked to national wealth, not causally to each other.
Question 6: Passage: The new drug reduced symptoms in 85% of trial participants. The placebo reduced symptoms in 30% of participants. Conclusion: The drug is more effective than the placebo at reducing symptoms. What is the status of this conclusion?
- True beyond reasonable doubt (Correct answer)
- Probably true
- Insufficient data
- Probably false
Correct answer: True beyond reasonable doubt
85% versus 30% is a clear, direct comparison within the same trial, making the conclusion certain.
Question 7: Passage: Some politicians who support lower taxes also support reduced government spending. Conclusion: All politicians who support lower taxes support reduced government spending. What is the status of this conclusion?
- True beyond reasonable doubt
- Probably true
- Insufficient data
- Probably false (Correct answer)
Correct answer: Probably false
'Some' explicitly means not all; concluding 'all' directly contradicts what the passage actually states.
Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Analyzing Conclusions 5
Passage: A survey of 50 gym members found that those who hired personal trainers lost more weight than those who did not.
Conclusion: Hiring a personal trainer is the best way to lose weight.
What is the status of this conclusion?