Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Analyzing Conclusions 4 — Questions and Answers
Question 1: Passage: People who read for pleasure regularly score higher on empathy tests than those who do not. Conclusion: Reading for pleasure improves empathy. What is the status of this conclusion?
- True beyond reasonable doubt
- Probably true (Correct answer)
- Insufficient data
- Probably false
Correct answer: Probably true
A consistent association between reading and higher empathy scores is suggestive of a causal link, making the conclusion probable.
Question 2: Passage: The company launched a new ad campaign in March. Sales increased in April. Conclusion: The ad campaign caused the increase in sales. What is the status of this conclusion?
- True beyond reasonable doubt
- Probably true
- Insufficient data (Correct answer)
- Probably false
Correct answer: Insufficient data
Post hoc timing does not establish cause; many factors could explain an April sales rise without the passage ruling them out.
Question 3: Passage: Students who use tutoring services achieve higher GPAs. Students who achieve higher GPAs are more likely to graduate on time. Conclusion: Students who use tutoring services are more likely to graduate on time. What is the status of this conclusion?
- True beyond reasonable doubt
- Probably true (Correct answer)
- Insufficient data
- Probably false
Correct answer: Probably true
The two premises form a plausible chain — tutoring leads to higher GPA, which leads to timelier graduation — making the conclusion probable.
Question 4: Passage: All mammals breathe air. Dolphins breathe air. Conclusion: Dolphins are mammals. What is the status of this conclusion?
- True beyond reasonable doubt
- Probably true
- Insufficient data (Correct answer)
- Probably false
Correct answer: Insufficient data
Breathing air is a necessary condition for mammals but may also apply to non-mammals; the argument commits the fallacy of affirming the consequent.
Question 5: Passage: In a survey, 78% of customers said they would recommend the restaurant to a friend. Conclusion: Most customers are satisfied with the restaurant. What is the status of this conclusion?
- True beyond reasonable doubt
- Probably true (Correct answer)
- Insufficient data
- Probably false
Correct answer: Probably true
Willingness to recommend is a strong proxy for satisfaction, and 78% is well above majority, making the conclusion probable.
Question 6: Passage: Whenever the river level rises above 10 feet, the downstream town floods. The river is currently at 8 feet. Conclusion: The downstream town will not flood. What is the status of this conclusion?
- True beyond reasonable doubt
- Probably true
- Insufficient data (Correct answer)
- Probably false
Correct answer: Insufficient data
The passage only specifies flooding above 10 feet; it says nothing about whether the level will change, so the future is undetermined.
Question 7: Passage: No student who plagiarizes will pass the course. Alex plagiarized an assignment. Conclusion: Alex will not pass the course. What is the status of this conclusion?
- True beyond reasonable doubt (Correct answer)
- Probably true
- Insufficient data
- Probably false
Correct answer: True beyond reasonable doubt
The universal prohibition combined with Alex's confirmed plagiarism makes the conclusion logically necessary.
Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Analyzing Conclusions 4
Passage: People who read for pleasure regularly score higher on empathy tests than those who do not.
Conclusion: Reading for pleasure improves empathy.
What is the status of this conclusion?