Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Analyzing Conclusions 3 — Questions and Answers
Question 1: Passage: Library visitors dropped 30% after a new fee was introduced. Conclusion: The fee caused the drop in visitors. What is the status of this conclusion?
- True beyond reasonable doubt
- Probably true (Correct answer)
- Insufficient data
- Probably false
Correct answer: Probably true
The close temporal link between the fee and the drop makes a causal relationship probable, though other explanations are possible.
Question 2: Passage: All board members voted in favor of the merger. Conclusion: The merger will be successful. What is the status of this conclusion?
- True beyond reasonable doubt
- Probably true
- Insufficient data (Correct answer)
- Probably false
Correct answer: Insufficient data
Board approval is one step in a merger but says nothing about its eventual success, which depends on many unmentioned factors.
Question 3: Passage: In regions where recycling programs were introduced, landfill waste decreased significantly. Conclusion: Recycling programs are the only effective way to reduce landfill waste. What is the status of this conclusion?
- True beyond reasonable doubt
- Probably true
- Insufficient data
- Probably false (Correct answer)
Correct answer: Probably false
Showing one method works does not establish that no other method is effective — the 'only' claim is unsupported.
Question 4: Passage: No reptile is warm-blooded. Snakes are reptiles. Conclusion: Snakes are not warm-blooded. What is the status of this conclusion?
- True beyond reasonable doubt (Correct answer)
- Probably true
- Insufficient data
- Probably false
Correct answer: True beyond reasonable doubt
This valid syllogism: if no reptile is warm-blooded and snakes are reptiles, snakes cannot be warm-blooded.
Question 5: Passage: Unemployment fell from 9% to 6% during the governor's term. Conclusion: The governor's policies are responsible for reducing unemployment. What is the status of this conclusion?
- True beyond reasonable doubt
- Probably true
- Insufficient data (Correct answer)
- Probably false
Correct answer: Insufficient data
The passage gives outcome data during a term but does not identify which policies were enacted or rule out national economic trends.
Question 6: Passage: Apartments in the downtown district cost on average $2,500 per month. Conclusion: No apartment in the downtown district costs less than $2,500 per month. What is the status of this conclusion?
- True beyond reasonable doubt
- Probably true
- Insufficient data
- Probably false (Correct answer)
Correct answer: Probably false
An average of $2,500 means some apartments are above and some below that figure — the conclusion contradicts how averages work.
Question 7: Passage: Whenever output falls below 500 units, the factory manager orders overtime shifts. Output fell to 480 units this week. Conclusion: The factory manager will order overtime shifts this week. What is the status of this conclusion?
- True beyond reasonable doubt (Correct answer)
- Probably true
- Insufficient data
- Probably false
Correct answer: True beyond reasonable doubt
The rule is stated as an invariable condition, and the condition is met, so the conclusion follows with certainty.
Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Analyzing Conclusions 3
Passage: Library visitors dropped 30% after a new fee was introduced.
Conclusion: The fee caused the drop in visitors.
What is the status of this conclusion?