Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Analyzing Conclusions 2 — Questions and Answers
Question 1: Passage: All employees who completed the training program received a bonus. Maria did not receive a bonus. Conclusion: Maria did not complete the training program. What is the status of this conclusion?
- True beyond reasonable doubt (Correct answer)
- Probably true
- Insufficient data
- False beyond reasonable doubt
Correct answer: True beyond reasonable doubt
If all who completed received a bonus, then anyone without a bonus necessarily did not complete — a valid contrapositive.
Question 2: Passage: Most customers who try our new product become repeat buyers. Conclusion: Every customer who tries the product will buy it again. What is the status of this conclusion?
- True beyond reasonable doubt
- Probably true
- Insufficient data
- Probably false (Correct answer)
Correct answer: Probably false
'Most' does not mean 'every' — the conclusion overstates the evidence by claiming universality.
Question 3: Passage: Studies show students who sleep at least 8 hours before an exam score higher than those who sleep fewer than 6 hours. Conclusion: Sleep is the most important factor in exam performance. What is the status of this conclusion?
- True beyond reasonable doubt
- Probably true
- Insufficient data (Correct answer)
- Probably false
Correct answer: Insufficient data
The passage compares sleep amounts but does not compare sleep to other factors, so ranking it 'most important' cannot be determined.
Question 4: Passage: Every time the city cut the parks budget, the crime rate in park areas rose. Conclusion: Reducing the parks budget causes an increase in crime. What is the status of this conclusion?
- True beyond reasonable doubt
- Probably true
- Insufficient data (Correct answer)
- Probably false
Correct answer: Insufficient data
Repeated co-occurrence is suggestive but does not rule out third variables, so a causal claim cannot be confirmed.
Question 5: Passage: No one under 18 is permitted inside the venue. Jordan is 16. Conclusion: Jordan is not permitted inside the venue. What is the status of this conclusion?
- True beyond reasonable doubt (Correct answer)
- Probably true
- Insufficient data
- Probably false
Correct answer: True beyond reasonable doubt
Since no one under 18 is permitted and Jordan is 16, the conclusion follows necessarily.
Question 6: Passage: Companies that invest in employee wellness programs report lower absenteeism. Conclusion: Reducing absenteeism causes companies to invest in wellness programs. What is the status of this conclusion?
- True beyond reasonable doubt
- Probably true
- Insufficient data
- Probably false (Correct answer)
Correct answer: Probably false
The passage states investment leads to lower absenteeism; the conclusion reverses the causal direction, which is unsupported.
Question 7: Passage: Sarah exercises five days a week and maintains a healthy diet. Conclusion: Sarah is in excellent health. What is the status of this conclusion?
- True beyond reasonable doubt
- Probably true (Correct answer)
- Insufficient data
- Probably false
Correct answer: Probably true
Regular exercise and healthy diet are strong indicators of good health, making the conclusion probable though not certain.
Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal Analyzing Conclusions 2
Passage: All employees who completed the training program received a bonus.
Maria did not receive a bonus.
Conclusion: Maria did not complete the training program.
What is the status of this conclusion?