TalentLens Critical Thinking & Problem-Solving 2

Question 1

A manager notices that sales dropped 20% after a new pricing policy was introduced last month. A colleague concludes the pricing policy caused the drop. What is the main flaw in this reasoning?

Accepted Answer

Correlation does not establish causation without ruling out other factors

Answer

Assuming causation from correlation ignores other possible explanations such as seasonal trends or competitor actions.

Question 2

Which of the following is the strongest argument for implementing a four-day workweek?

Accepted Answer

Studies show equivalent productivity with reduced burnout and absenteeism

Answer

Evidence-backed outcomes like maintained productivity and reduced burnout provide the strongest objective support.

Question 3

A problem-solver uses trial and error to find a solution. This approach is MOST appropriate when:

Accepted Answer

The search space is small and testing options is low-cost

Answer

Trial and error is efficient when the number of options is limited and failures are cheap to recover from.

Question 4

In a Watson-Glaser style argument evaluation, a 'strong' argument is one that:

Accepted Answer

Directly and substantially addresses the question with relevant evidence

Answer

Strong arguments are directly relevant to the issue and supported by substantive, logical reasoning.

Question 5

A team must decide between two project plans. Plan A has a 70% chance of a $100K gain and 30% chance of $0. Plan B guarantees $60K. Using expected value, which plan is preferable?

Accepted Answer

Plan A, because its expected value of $70K exceeds Plan B's $60K

Answer

Plan A's expected value (0.7 × $100K = $70K) is higher than Plan B's certain $60K, making it preferable on pure expected value grounds.

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TalentLens Critical Thinking & Problem-Solving 2