SPP Scenario Planning & Forecasting 4

Question 1

Which approach is most appropriate for forecasting in highly volatile, rapidly changing markets with limited historical data?

Accepted Answer

Analogical forecasting using similar past markets

Answer

Analogical forecasting draws on comparable historical markets or technologies to inform projections when direct data is scarce.

Question 2

In a scenario planning workshop, 'driving forces' are best defined as:

Accepted Answer

External STEEP factors that shape the future environment

Answer

Driving forces are external Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, and Political factors that influence how the future unfolds.

Question 3

A strategic plan developed using 'scenario-based planning' differs from traditional long-range planning primarily because it:

Accepted Answer

Prepares the organization for multiple possible futures

Answer

Scenario-based planning deliberately develops strategies that account for several plausible futures rather than betting on one forecast.

Question 4

Which tool is used to systematically map relationships between variables to identify feedback loops in a system?

Accepted Answer

Causal loop diagram

Answer

Causal loop diagrams visualize how variables influence each other through reinforcing and balancing feedback loops.

Question 5

When a scenario planning team uses 'backcasting,' they are:

Accepted Answer

Starting from a desired future and working backward to identify required actions

Answer

Backcasting defines a preferred future endpoint and then identifies the policy and strategy steps needed to reach it.

(SPP) Strategic Planning Professional Practice Test