SPP Scenario Planning & Forecasting 3

Question 1

Which cognitive bias most commonly causes forecasters to anchor on the current state and underestimate future change?

Accepted Answer

Status quo bias

Answer

Status quo bias leads forecasters to treat the present as the default future, underweighting possibilities of significant change.

Question 2

What distinguishes a 'robust' strategy from an 'optimal' strategy in scenario planning?

Accepted Answer

A robust strategy performs adequately across all plausible scenarios

Answer

Robustness prioritizes acceptable performance across all scenarios over peak performance in just one.

Question 3

In causal layered analysis (CLA), the 'litany' layer refers to:

Accepted Answer

Official quantitative data and surface-level trends

Answer

The litany layer captures the quantitative, official, surface-level data that first appears in headlines and reports.

Question 4

A company uses a rolling forecast that updates every quarter rather than relying solely on an annual plan. This approach primarily improves:

Accepted Answer

Forecast accuracy and organizational agility

Answer

Rolling forecasts continuously incorporate new information, making the organization more adaptive and improving near-term accuracy.

Question 5

Which scenario planning output is specifically designed to help executives recognize which scenario is unfolding in real time?

Accepted Answer

Signpost monitoring dashboards

Answer

Signpost monitoring dashboards track pre-identified indicators that differentiate among scenarios as events evolve.

(SPP) Strategic Planning Professional Practice Test