SPP Scenario Planning & Forecasting 2

Question 1

Which technique involves assigning probabilities to different future states and calculating expected outcomes across scenarios?

Accepted Answer

Probabilistic scenario analysis

Answer

Probabilistic scenario analysis attaches likelihood estimates to each scenario and computes weighted expected outcomes.

Question 2

In scenario planning, a 'wild card' event is best described as:

Accepted Answer

A low-probability, high-impact discontinuity

Answer

Wild cards are low-probability but potentially transformative events that can invalidate existing scenarios.

Question 3

The primary purpose of wind-tunneling a strategy is to:

Accepted Answer

Test how a proposed strategy performs across all scenarios

Answer

Wind-tunneling stress-tests a strategy against each developed scenario to reveal vulnerabilities and robustness.

Question 4

Which forecasting method is most appropriate when historical data is absent but expert knowledge is available?

Accepted Answer

Qualitative Delphi method

Answer

The Delphi method systematically collects and refines expert opinions when quantitative data is lacking.

Question 5

A 'focal question' in scenario planning serves to:

Accepted Answer

Frame the central strategic uncertainty that scenarios will explore

Answer

The focal question anchors scenario development by articulating the key strategic decision or uncertainty under examination.

(SPP) Strategic Planning Professional Practice Test