PMI-SP Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning 2 — Questions and Answers
Question 1: A project scheduler is using Monte Carlo simulation on a construction project. After 10,000 iterations, the P80 completion date is 3 weeks later than the deterministic schedule. What does this indicate?
- The project will definitely finish 3 weeks late
- There is an 80% probability the project finishes on or before that date (Correct answer)
- The schedule baseline must be extended by 3 weeks immediately
- Monte Carlo results are unreliable and should be discarded
Correct answer: There is an 80% probability the project finishes on or before that date
The P80 value in Monte Carlo simulation means there is an 80% probability the project will be completed on or before that date.
Question 2: Which of the following best describes the purpose of a risk register in schedule risk management?
- To document only risks that have already occurred on the project
- To record identified risks, their analysis results, and planned responses (Correct answer)
- To replace the project schedule when risks are too numerous
- To assign blame for schedule delays to responsible parties
Correct answer: To record identified risks, their analysis results, and planned responses
The risk register is the primary document for recording identified risks along with their probability, impact assessments, and planned response strategies.
Question 3: A PMI-SP practitioner identifies that a key vendor consistently delivers materials two weeks late. This is BEST categorized as:
- A pure risk because it only has negative outcomes
- A known-unknown risk that can be planned for in the schedule (Correct answer)
- An unknown-unknown that cannot be anticipated
- A secondary risk arising from a risk response
Correct answer: A known-unknown risk that can be planned for in the schedule
A recurring vendor delay pattern is a known-unknown risk—identified and understood well enough to incorporate contingency or response plans into the schedule.
Question 4: When developing schedule contingency reserves, a project manager uses the expected monetary value (EMV) approach. A risk has a 30% probability of occurring and would cause a 10-day delay. What is the EMV of this schedule risk?
- 10 days
- 3 days (Correct answer)
- 30 days
- 0.3 days
Correct answer: 3 days
EMV is calculated by multiplying probability (0.30) by impact (10 days), resulting in 3 days of schedule contingency contribution.
Question 5: A risk response strategy where the project team shifts the negative impact of a schedule risk to a third party is called:
- Avoidance
- Mitigation
- Transfer (Correct answer)
- Acceptance
Correct answer: Transfer
Transfer involves shifting the risk responsibility to a third party, such as through contracts, insurance, or performance bonds.
Question 6: During qualitative risk analysis, a scheduler discovers a risk with high probability but very low schedule impact. This risk should MOST likely be:
- Escalated immediately to the project sponsor
- Placed on the watchlist for periodic monitoring (Correct answer)
- Added to the critical path as a mandatory activity
- Treated as a constraint in the project schedule
Correct answer: Placed on the watchlist for periodic monitoring
Risks with high probability but low impact are typically placed on a watchlist and monitored rather than warranting immediate active response.
Question 7: A project schedule shows a critical path with zero float. When a risk event occurs that adds 5 days to a critical path activity, what is the direct effect on the project?
- The project finish date moves out by 5 days unless contingency reserves are used (Correct answer)
- The float on near-critical paths increases by 5 days
- The risk is absorbed because critical path activities have buffer
- Other activities automatically compress to compensate
Correct answer: The project finish date moves out by 5 days unless contingency reserves are used
Critical path activities have zero float, so any delay directly extends the project completion date unless schedule reserves are applied.
PMI-SP Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning 2
A project scheduler is using Monte Carlo simulation on a construction project.
After 10,000 iterations, the P80 completion date is 3 weeks later than the deterministic schedule.
What does this indicate?