Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning Flashcards

A project scheduler is using Monte Carlo simulation on a construction project. After 10,000 iterations, the P80 completion date is 3 weeks later than the deterministic schedule. What does this indicate?

Answer: There is an 80% probability the project finishes on or before that date

The P80 value in Monte Carlo simulation means there is an 80% probability the project will be completed on or before that date.

Which of the following best describes the purpose of a risk register in schedule risk management?

Answer: To record identified risks, their analysis results, and planned responses

The risk register is the primary document for recording identified risks along with their probability, impact assessments, and planned response strategies.

A PMI-SP practitioner identifies that a key vendor consistently delivers materials two weeks late. This is BEST categorized as:

Answer: A known-unknown risk that can be planned for in the schedule

A recurring vendor delay pattern is a known-unknown risk—identified and understood well enough to incorporate contingency or response plans into the schedule.

When developing schedule contingency reserves, a project manager uses the expected monetary value (EMV) approach. A risk has a 30% probability of occurring and would cause a 10-day delay. What is the EMV of this schedule risk?

Answer: 3 days

EMV is calculated by multiplying probability (0.30) by impact (10 days), resulting in 3 days of schedule contingency contribution.

A risk response strategy where the project team shifts the negative impact of a schedule risk to a third party is called:

Answer: Transfer

Transfer involves shifting the risk responsibility to a third party, such as through contracts, insurance, or performance bonds.

During qualitative risk analysis, a scheduler discovers a risk with high probability but very low schedule impact. This risk should MOST likely be:

Answer: Placed on the watchlist for periodic monitoring

Risks with high probability but low impact are typically placed on a watchlist and monitored rather than warranting immediate active response.

A project schedule shows a critical path with zero float. When a risk event occurs that adds 5 days to a critical path activity, what is the direct effect on the project?

Answer: The project finish date moves out by 5 days unless contingency reserves are used

Critical path activities have zero float, so any delay directly extends the project completion date unless schedule reserves are applied.